If I think that oil is gonna go up in the future at a rate > than the market returns, I'm gonna buy a crap loads of oil. It's not about neccessity, it's just common sense. Are you gonna tell people not to buy oil if they think $10K in oil is gonna be able to rise in price faster than a bank's 0.9% interest?
As I said before breaking an addiction is often very painful. There will always be an excuse not to kick the habit but the sooner its done the better.
My bad, I just used the MM term losely. What I really meant was the whole financial industry. Think of it, what do people gain from the whole derivatives thing over the past 20 some years? Nothing. It's just credit alone is not enough money for those financial institutes to make, they want to charge you for insuring your loans/credits, or charge you for broker fee of buying/selling those credits/loans. They claimed to help you hedge risk. But by doing that, they encourage you to take more risks. Just like IT industry, it's important to have it, but it creates more problem than it solves, so they can charge you more to solve those newly created problems. But it's off topic now.
I see where you are going. I just had to chime in on the market maker part since they are the nebulous evil force that people love to blame on "financial" and trading message boards when a trade doesn't go their way.
If we enter a recession or stagflation because of the scenario mentioned, gas prices will ultimately depress because of low market demand. It'll be similar to what happened ~10 years ago with the $10 barrel that came after the Asian financial crisis. We'll be gripped tighter to the drug because it's a cheap source of energy...which then makes consumers think they can buy gas guzzling SUVs. Oil is tightly connected to our economy. Our standard of living is the drug. The timing for sustaining high prices isn't the best one.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/09/15/060915121127.jg4kb8p0.html Oil demand weaker than expected in first half of 2006: OPEC Sep 15 8:11 AM US/Eastern World oil demand growth was weaker than expected in the first half of 2006, OPEC has said. "World oil demand growth in 2006 has been revised down by 0.1 million barrels per day (bpd) since the last MOMR (OPEC monthly report) to stand at 1.2 million bpd, as recent data shows weaker-than-expected demand in the first half of the year," it said in its report for September on world oil markets. Gasoline demand in the United States "grew by only 0.7 percent, well below the annual average of 1.6 percent despite the stabilization of gasoline prices," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said. "This has led to downward revisions of 0.2 million bpd and 0.1 million bpd to second- and third-quarter oil demand figures for North America," the report said. "Developing Countries, which account for 92 percent of world oil demand growth, are expected to see incremental demand of 0.6 million bpd for the year." Meanwhile, "Chinas accelerating economy continues to exceed expectations and oil demand growth could reach 8.3 percent by year-end," the report said. Predictions of the growth in world oil demand are "unchanged at 1.3 million bpd or 1.5 percent," OPEC said, adding that as in 2006, "the lions share of oil demand growth in 2007 will come from developing countries."
You are insane Better Mass Transit would mean less TOLL ROADS!!! and what would we do with out our precious TOLL ROADS! Sorry for being Sarcastic and Bitter but Toll Roads just stick in my Craw I agree with you . . . I'm a big proponent of Replacing all the HOV lanes with a light Rail . . . Putting a Light Rail inside those lanes Rocket River
Below $2/gallon by Christmas here in Houston. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4189150.html Texas gasoline prices fall again; hit $2.44 a gallon Associated Press Retail gasoline prices have fallen for the sixth week in a row as lower demand and a calm hurricane season continues to translate into lower pump prices, according to a weekly survey. According to the AAA Texas gasoline price survey released today, the retail price of regular, self-serve gasoline averaged $2.44 cents per gallon statewide this week, 13 cents less than last week. Nationally, the average price fell 13 cents to $2.58 per gallon. "Several factors contribute to the lowering of retail gasoline prices including lower demand following the end of the summer driving season, a much calmer hurricane season than previously anticipated, and a huge decline in the price of crude oil," said AAA Texas spokeswoman Rose Rougeau. "The price of crude fell below $64 a barrel this week after reaching a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14th." The state's cheapest gas was reported in Corpus Christi, where the price averaged $2.23 per gallon after the state's steepest price fall of 16 cents per gallon. The most expensive gas remained in El Paso, where the price averaged $2.64 per gallon, despite a 10-cent decrease. ——— These are average per-gallon prices of regular, self-serve gasoline in Texas metro areas and the change from last week, according to today's Triple-A Texas Weekend Gas Watch: Austin-San Marcos — $2.561, down 10.4 cents Amarillo — $2.509, down 9.2 cents Beaumont — $2.404, down 15.1 cents Corpus Christi — $2.227, down 16.4 cents Dallas — $2.411, down 12.4 cents El Paso — $2.636, down 9.9 cents Fort Worth — $2.405, down 12.3 cents Galveston-Texas City — $2.408, down 15.7 cents Houston — $2.374, down 15.5 cents San Antonio — $2.461, down 11.5 cents
i know you are just kidding, but to speak on that point we just simply aren't that powerful. people on both sides feel america is some all powerful entity that can control anything, but we can't. we are really powerful but there is a lot of hype (eg. conspiracy theories) around our power. hell we are the same nation that just let the fight into iraq on intel that was dead wrong and we had no clue. we are also the same nation that can't get the specified task accomplished in iraq, no matter what you want to say the specified task was. oil, nation building, extending influence, passifying the people, promoting democracy and unity, getting rid of WMDs, and so on. we simply aren't that powerful like some people like to view us to be. so what i am saying is we can't control oil. opec can tell us to suck it whenever they want.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Trade#Early_history_of_commodity_markets this will give you an idea why it should still be traded.
am i gonna wrap this thing up in September!!??? "my" shell station has it at $2.42 for regular unleaded this morning.
http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage3 Oil's slide toward $62 to test OPEC resolve Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:18pm ET LONDON (Reuters) - Oil slid below $63 a barrel on Friday touching its lowest level since March as U.S. fuel stockpiles grew ahead of winter and investors probed for a price that would trigger an OPEC supply cut. Waning concern about the West's atomic row with Iran added to bearish sentiment. U.S. crude <CLc1> was down 70 cents at $62.52 a barrel at 1615 GMT, after touching its lowest since March 23 at $62.03. London Brent <LCOc1> crude was off 79 cents to $62.75. "Our sense is the market might like to test where OPEC wants to set the price floor," said Frederic Lasserre, head of commodity research at Societe Generale. "The psychology of the market has really turned, it looks like the market will be oversupplied next year unless OPEC does something." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday cut its demand forecast for its oil by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, when supply from rival producers is expected to surge. The group's own economists expect demand for OPEC oil in 2007 to be 800,000 bpd below this year. OPEC ministers kept oil output steady near a 25-year high at a meeting this week, but left the door open to a supply cut before the end of the year. They have been at pains to avoid setting a price target they would defend. "(OPEC ministers) have not had to think about cutting output to defend prices for a long time, but the question is now front and center in the market," said Mike Wittner of Calyon. Top world exporter Saudi Arabia would start quietly trimming supplies if U.S. crude fell to around $60, Wittner said. U.S. FUEL STOCKPILES HIGH Oil has fallen more than 20 percent from its mid-July record of $78.40 as the supply picture improves. Mounting evidence that the United States has enough fuel stocks to meet winter heating demand further pressured prices. Natural gas stocks are over 12 percent above the average for the last five years. And distillate stocks, which include heating oil, are at their highest level since October 1999. The market's slide has deepened as concerns wane over the possibility of Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, withholding shipments in its dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions. European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said on Friday he was making progress in talks with Iran. Prices were falling across commodity markets on expectations that economic growth may be slowing in China, Lasserre said. "Data is mixed from the U.S., but there are signs that (government) measures to slow down Chinese growth may be having an effect, he said. "A slowdown in Chinese demand would be felt across commodities."
