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Officially the WORST record in the league

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DaDakota, Apr 12, 2021.

  1. Sanctity

    Sanctity Member

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    Wizards organization:. You John Wall have impressed us so much, here's gazillion dollars for your dance talents. You will forever be the contract that can't be moved. Unless....
     
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    The idea that having the worst record is irrelevant is just wrong.

    This has nothing at all to do with the Rockets owing OKC their pick outside the top 4 , that is irrelevant.

    Previously the #3 pick was the first lotto ball pulled and #4 was as far as the worst team could fall.

    Correct me if I'm wrong here -



    With the rule change , the #4 pick is the first lotto ball pulled.

    The worst record would pick no lower than 5th.
    The 2nd worst no lower than 6th.
    The 3rd worst no lower than 7th.

    With that understanding , there is some mathematical advantage to having the worst record because the more teams that leap into those top 4 picks , the further down each of those teams do fall.

    If the a team finish's worst , that means 4 teams have to jump ahead of them to push them to 5.

    If they are second worst and 4 teams jump them they get #6.

    If 4 teams jump the 3rd worst team they get #7.

    Remember they each have the same odds for each picks 1 thru 4 but #2 has one worse outcome than #1 and #3 has two worse outcomes than #1 and one worse than #2.

    There is "Some" advantage in having the worst record in that it limits how far you fall from that top spot.
     
  3. DonatelloLimestone

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    From my understanding what we see in tv is not the ‘live action pull’. I believe they do it several times over in the ‘backroom’ in terms of whatever their formula is to approach each odds and then do one for tv excitement with everyone outside so getting pulled first doesn’t change the outcome, it makes for great tv unless they changed how they do that with the new rules.

    It’ll be a crap shoot, so long as we don’t float over number 3 our best shot is a 52 percent, basically around Tobias Harris/Sabonis fg chances per game or a more optimistic look is our chance is about 10 percent higher than steph currys chance at making a 3 he shoots.
     
  4. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    That's not how the lottery works.

    Each of the bottom three teams has IDENTICAL mathematical odds at each of the top 4 picks. Each of them has a 52% chance at a top-4 pick and a 48% chance at falling outside the top-4.
     
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  5. dmoneybangbang

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    Having the worst record just helps lock you in the top 3 best odds.
     
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  6. gogispade

    gogispade Member

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    now we all know that the tanking is real becouse Clutch didnt even start game thread for Indy game haha
     
  7. DJboutit

    DJboutit Member

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    We are a

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That's exactly how the lottery works , the first 4 picks are dictated by ping pong balls and the rest by record from worst to best. The percentages are irrelevant in this discussion as the hypothetical is that none of the worst 4 remain in the top 4 picks.

    Sure they are "equal in mathematical odds". Where they aren't equal is in the consequences after falling out of the top 4.

    The team with the worst record can only fall to 5.
    The team with the second worst record can fall to 6.
    The team with the 3rd worst record can fall to 7.

    That's the worst case outcome for any of those teams.



    Hypothetically the lottery falls like the following -

    1Toronto
    2Sacramento
    3Washington
    4OKC

    The rest of the draft is placed by record.
    5 Minny
    6Houston
    7Detroit
    8Orlando

    Bottom line , there are circumstances where being worst has its advantages over being 2nd / 3rd worst.
     
  9. PatBev

    PatBev Member

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    Somehow Minnesota has a worst record

    They really are a bad franchise lol
     
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  10. RHU525

    RHU525 Member

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    At this point they have to be losing on purpose. Because their pick will go to Golden State outside top 3.
     
  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    [​IMG]
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Sure, but those circumstances are inapplicable to the Houston Rockets in the year 2021 . . . which is what I thought this entire thread was about.
     
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  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة

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    Mathematics and luck which can be worked out by mathematics.
     
  14. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Correct because if the Rockets fall outside the top 4 they give it to OKC and get Miami's pick being the worst of the three.

    My initial response was in regard to a tweet in one of these threads on tanking - so many they all run together now - I can't locate that tweet but it caused some uproar , mostly towards Silas.

    The point of the tweet was that being worst had no advantages and that's just downright false.

    Being worst means that teams pick would fall no lower than 5 - regardless of debts owed.
     
  15. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Are you talking about this tweet from Clutch.



    If so, there's nothing false about it, because he's talking about the Rockets
     
  16. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    No. Was another .... really not a big deal.
     
  17. Dash

    Dash Member

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    nah nick caserio gives me hope for the texans
     
  18. banzai

    banzai Contributing Member

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    I kinda like that every game we go down by 20... then comeback like blind fury and scare the crap out of us and other teams... can you imagine when we ain’t gotta pull the chute at the end? We can’t let Dallas ever best us tho. Lol
     
  19. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Tilman deserves it
     
  20. HoustonWest

    HoustonWest Member

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    I guess. I still think it's a bit of a flaming bandwagon with passengers foaming at the mouth to perpetually blame Fertitta for everything. Yes the Westbrook trade was bad, many felt it was predictably bad. Certainly was ill-advised in hindsight.

    It's not like he did it for no reason -- the trade was done to appease Harden, who evidently hated Fertitta a lot more for other reasons. But it's not like Fertitta did it without consulting with Harden.

    Harden will ultimately get his own blame for how things went down due to his passive persona and inability to bond with Paul -- or attract other stars to Houston (which matters when, in this era, players are effectively running shadow free agency).

    Had that trade not happened, would Paul still be in Houston? Doubtful, but certainly Houston might have more trade assets. I highly, highly doubt Houston would have gotten the haul that Oklahoma City received from Phoenix; the situations were entirely different.

    Let's not pretend like the outcome wouldn't have been much different. I think Harden would've still wanted out to team up with his buddy Durant. The championship window closed when they couldn't land Butler -- not Fertitta's fault.
     

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