I personally think Trump is doing harm to the US. And is overall an awful person. But I still like him more than Trump Jr lol
I don't see the Trump loyalists wavering at all. In fact I think that he has more loyalists than he did three years ago. He really appeals to certain marginalized groups and some that have been historically apolitical. Does that mean he has more overall support? Not necessarily, I think that people's opinion of the President have hardened. There are more "forever Trump" and also more "Never Trump" voters than at any point in the past. I also believe that there are a lot of moderates that do not like some of the comments that the President has made, and believe that he has been unethical at times. Whether they vote for him will depend on who the Democrats nominate, and the direction of the wind in the days leading up to the election. At the end of the day, 7-8 states will determine whether Trump is re-elected. Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wisconsin is where the election will be decided. Trump has appealed hard to areas like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin with his positions on trade and also his statements on drug abuse in the heartland of the country. Trump is currently building strong infrastructures in places like Arizona, Nevada and rural Colorado with more extremists hoping that it is enough to deliver the state. Where Trump is having problems is in the suburbs, which can cause him issues in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. It may come down to blue collar voter turnout compared to suburban voter turnout in these select states. Sanders as a nominee can deliver Michigan and likely Wisconsin but may struggle in states like North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
I think the bold (and the opening paragraph) are spot on …. It'll be those moderates that likely decide this election. Seems like the Never and Forever Trumpers pretty much cancel each other out.
Trump loyalist will not get him reelected, it's the voters who took a chance on Trump are the ones who got him elected. Those voters are very soft and he has lost a lot of the suburbs which are those voters.
Time will tell. Trump loyalists will not make a difference at the local level, but they can in the electoral college in places like Arizona and Nevada. They can help swing states with either limited votes or that lack several large suburban areas. Trump has lost some of his suburban support, but I do believe he has improved his support in smaller towns and communities were drugs and jobs are an issue. His trade positioning will help him in those areas. We will see if Trump's improved positioning in fly over America will be enough to erase his losses in the suburbs.
So what about him energizing democrats and he won on historic turnout vote rural voters in 2016 he does not have a large margin there. Remember he won by 80'000 votes over 3 states and in 2 of those states he has definitely lost support. He is in more danger of losing additional states than gaining anymore. Take a look at Florida.
He is a polarizing candidate and will certainly motivate higher democratic turnout. He did win a handful of important states by a small margin, it will be close in 2020 as well. I do believe that he will have historic turnout in rural communities again and his position on trade will likely net him some blue collar supporters in those communities that he did not get before. I know the latest numbers in Florida are strong for Biden or Sanders against Trump, but I personally still believe that state is Trump's to lose. He will have an incredible amount of money to spend and will tighten the race up. If Trump loses Florida, his chance of winning the election decreases greatly. He would essentially have to win the entire Midwest (Minn/Wisc/Michigan) and carry the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania/Ohio). I believe Trump will win Ohio, as his policies will likely help him there. I do not believe he carries Pennsylvania though. There are a lot of suburban voters in that state. Trump will win most of the smaller rural areas but lose the major suburban and urban areas. Michigan is another state the Democrats really need to carry.
You don't think some blue collar supporters will be turned off because they are negatively impacted because of Trump? How about the people who lost jobs because companies continue to move like Harley Davidson and Carrier in Wisc and plant closures in Michigan. Michigan is where he lost most support if he also loses Penn he cannot win. I am not saying he cannot win but I think he is swimming upstream.
Honestly no, I do not think that he will lose any blue collar support at all unless Sanders wins the nomination. While I am white collar, I have a blue collar background, do a lot of business in the Midwest with farmers and other blue collar people. I have become close to a number of people in that area and Trump is well liked in general. Even those friends I have that are not happy with him, state that a majority of those around them are supporters. Michigan will be a litmus test for the whole Midwest. The state is traditionally left leaning, and would go to Sanders..... not sure about other candidates, although Biden likely can pick off enough to carry the state. Yes, Pennsylvania and Florida are huge states.... they are large enough to render results in several smaller states as irrelevant. I am sure Trump and the Democratic nominee both are going to hit Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin very hard. It is going to be an absolute slug fist and a battle for both sides.... Trump has lost some suburban voters, how many can he get back? In some areas that is a lot of votes, in places like Pennsylvania it is impossible to win if you don't have the urban or suburban vote. There just are not enough rural voters.
interesting piece speculating that some Trump voters in 2020 won't actually be voting for Trump so much as voting against Trump's haters. https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/12/trump-impeachment-fallout-unpredictable/ excerpt: Many who voted for Trump were quite aware that Trump’s rhetoric often bothered them. They now weigh that discomfort against his achievements and the shrill Democratic alternative — and find the latter far scarier. Few on the left ever contemplate the effect on the general public of the 24/7, 360-degree pure hatred of Trump on network and cable news, public TV and radio, and late-night TV talk shows, as well as print media. The silent disdain many people have for the progressive media nexus is especially potent when the haters so often fit a stereotypical profile in the public mind: counterfeit elite as defined by education, zip codes, careers, or supposed cultural influence; smug in their parrot-like group-speak and accustomed to deference. This paradox was brought home to me not long ago when I asked an unlikely Trump minority supporter why in the world he would vote against his family’s and community’s political heritage. He answered at once, with simply, “I hate the people who hate him.” Translated, I think that means we often are missing a cultural element to Trump Agonistes, exacerbated by the latest toxic impeachment episode. Again, millions of Americans actually leave Trump per se out of their voting equations. They do not give him full credit for a remarkable economy and an unorthodox foreign policy that is addressing China, Iran, and the Middle East in a way many once advocated but few seriously believed would ever be enacted. Instead, voters are exhausted by his haters and their crazy agendas. They grow enraged over how the Mueller and Horowitz investigatory reports have disproved all the daily media, celebrity, and political assertions. And they are upset about the larger culture of the anti-Trump Left, from the fundamentals of open borders and identity politics to the trivia of transgendered athletes, Colin Kaepernickism, and the open-border, Green New Deal socialism. An auto worker who votes as a true-blue union Democrat but likes Trump’s trade policies, a no-nonsense farmer who worries about farm exports but likes deregulation, and a teacher who votes a liberal slate but has no way to control his classroom may not seem like Trump voters, but some such voters are terrified by the cultural trajectory of what the Trump-hating Left has in store for them all.
Is it really silent? I mean, “Trump Derangement Syndrom” and “Own The Libs” are two terms that have gained traction in the mainstream and seem to fall into what the author is trying to say. This isn’t a silent movement at all and there has been quite a bit of conversation about this, including on this forum.
I was just about to make that point / ask that question in regard to Nook's post above about people who aren't particularly happy with Trump , but what are their feelings towards the policy of the alternative. Depending upon who the eventual nominee is .... that could be what decides those peoples votes - not particularly happy with Trump but cant stomach the alternative. As for swimming upstream - I really believe its the Dems who face an uphill battle with an incumbent president and what appears to be a stable / improving economy. Historically that's been a mountain too tough to climb. Aside from Ford who wasn't elected , there have been two one term presidents in recent history , going back to 1933 when Hoover wasn't reelected - Carter and Bush , both upended mainly on economic issues. Trump is really polarizing , has his haters and his base but when it comes to those in the middle - I think it boils down to the old saying "Its the economy stupid." This trade deal with China - announced today , to be signed on the 15th of Jan 2020 could loom large in this election process. Then we have the Dems stating that the House will be focusing on Healthcare when the return next week - If that gets thru the House and Senate to Trump's pen before election day .... and Trump is able to take any credit for it .... its going to be real tough to upend Trump in the GE.
I’m just talking about likability. Trump is a smug *******. Lacking either humility or empathy. But Can be funny and I’m sure I could get along with just meeting him as random person that was not enriching himself has president. Trump Jr though I would just knock that motherfu*ker out if there were no repercussions.
Trump has not just lost suburban voters, he has lost independents as well. The real question is how many more voters has he gained over 2016, I really don't think he wins with the same voters he got in 2016. It's not really about converting voters its about turnout and I don't see any candidate suppressing turnout like Clinton did. All polls and elections has shown that Michigan is back leaning left.
Historically no president with Trumps approval rating has been reelected. Historically no president with an economy this good has this low of an approval rating. Just because a deal was announced means nothing Trump has lied about this before. Trump got elected with with a stable and improving economy and nothing has gotten appreciably better. If it was actually the economy stupid Trump would not have gotten elected.
