Based on what? His one good season in his career? He's coming off a season where he was one of the worst QB's in the NFL and he has a 58% completion percentage for his career. In fact, take his career numbers and compare them to the league last season 58.4% completion percentage would be good for 30th in the league last season (only better than Cam Newton) 86.1 QB rating would be good for 21st in the league He throws an average of 22 TD's a year which is good for 17th in the league He throws an average of 13 interceptions a year which would be the 13th most in the league He throws for an average of 3628 yards per season which would be good for 21st in the league. What about any of this is "absurdly good"?
Not really, both are instances of stellar defenses leading teams to the playoffs. Obviously Scam is better than what the Texans have had at QB recently, but if you are stuck using team success as the only justification of why you think he's a good player.....well that's not a good thing.
I'd love to see what happens with Dak if a linemen or Zeke goes down with injury. Don't get me wrong, he didnt lose the ball, but it helps when you have all day to throw it and everyone is more scared of you handing it off than anything.
Also, even with the best O line in the game which gave him an eternity to throw the ball, he still managed to get himself sacked 25 times last season.
I posted this in the Mahomes thread but I thought I'd post it here as well.... http://draftanalyst.com/da-draft-buzz-april-18-qb-not-lock-texans-round-1 General consensus has the Houston Texans taking a quarterback in the first round, yet this belief is not universal from all intimate with the situation. More on the Texans below as well as an update on Indiana guard Dan Feeney. Once the Houston Texans lost out on the services of Tony Romo, who announced his retirement several weeks ago, everyone automatically assumed the team would select a quarterback in the first round. And the name bandied about has been Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech. Yet there’s a faction of people I’ve spoken with who are close to the organization and believe the Texans won’t draft a quarterback in the first round for a variety of reasons. Foremost is the belief that head coach Bill O’Brien, as well as the Texans front office, must win in 2017. The front office can’t risk using the 25th selection of the draft on a developmental quarterback -- the team must select a player who will offer production quickly this season. They point to Houston drafting a left tackle or cornerback in the first round rather than a signal caller. Both are positions of need, and the players selected could have an immediate impact. There’s also a feeling that Tom Savage will be seamless in his transition to being an every-week starter. He understands the system, has the pedigree and -- most importantly -- has the trust of O’Brien. Could the Mahomes-to-Houston story be a smoke screen? If Mahomes is available when the Texans are called to the clock, will they pass up his long-term potential for short-term gains? Many feel the answer is yes to both questions.
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/new...eterman-duke-riley/1ffygnba9xzha1xfujuqqyyp2d — Offensive line: Will Holden, OT, Vanderbilt In one of the worst offensive tackle classes in recent history, Holden is a name to know. He might crash the third round despite little-to-no NFL excitement going into the draft process. Holden, a late addition to the Senior Bowl, proved his worth as an edge protecting and balanced exterior offensive lineman. He has the length, athleticism and skill set to play in the NFL. — Quarterback: Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh The former Tennessee transfer had one of the most impressive Senior Bowl performances of the last 10 years. He showcased his NFL-ready footwork and decision-making skills in front of NFL scouts. Peterman compares favorably to Kirk Cousins, and his character and mental make-up check the boxes. He’ll be drafted higher than many believe, as teams like the Redskins, 49ers, Jaguars, Saints and Chiefs all are bullish on his NFL potential. https://www.profootballfocus.com/draft-live-seven-round-mock-draft/ 25. Houston Texans DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame In terms of upside and physical talent, DeShone Kizer is on par with the top quarterbacks in this draft. He has a powerful arm, solid pocket instincts, and the ability to effectively push the ball downfield, posting a 111.5 QB rating on deep-pass attempts last season. Texans coach Bill O’Brien will have to work with him on his consistency issues, but Kizer has the ability to develop into the long-term answer at quarterback that Houston has been searching for. — Vinnie Ronca, @PFF_Vinnie
— Despite a weak offensive tackle class this year, we still will see eight to 10 offensive tackles drafted in the top three rounds. For teams that need offensive tackles, it’ll be slim pickings. Here are my picks for the eight: Garett Bolles, Cam Robinson, Ryan Ramczyk, Taylor Moton, Antonio Garcia, Roderick Johnson, Will Holden and Julian Davenport. Hope that we can get at least one of these guys to throw into the mix (I'd include Dion Dawkins, Brad Seaton, and maybe one or two more). Otherwise it'll just be Laurence Gibson competing with Clark at RT which is not ideal even if they legitimately do believe Gibson has potential.
Mel Kiper's three-round 'Grade A' mock draft Spoiler I'm not projecting picks based on what I'm hearing around the league. This is me making 107 picks -- three full rounds -- based on what's best for each team at that slot, so that each team gets an "A" grade. The ground rules: 1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest of only the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team at No. 5 better. 2. No trades unless they have already happened. I try to address team needs, but as with the actual draft, value can supersede need. 3. Once again, I'm not projecting. It's more a look at where I see value up and down the board, based on my rankings. There's a team-by-team look with my full analysis below, as well as a pick-by-pick version, so you can see how the order of the picks progressed and get an idea of who was off the board when each team selected. Houston Texans Round 1 (25): Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama Round 2 (57): Nathan Peterman, QB, Pitt Round 3 (89): Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky Once again, the 25 spot is a reach for quarterbacks, according to my rankings. I'll give Bill O'Brien's squad an eventual replacement for Duane Brown in Robinson, who is a powerful run-blocker but needs to clean up some things to reach his potential. That means I'm going with a quarterback in the second round, and it's Peterman, my No. 4-ranked signal-caller. He doesn't have big-time arm strength, but that should improve when he gets into the league. He's a steady QB with room to grow into a starter and could compete with Tom Savage. Taylor, who had 34 touchdown catches the past two seasons, doesn't have ideal size (5-foot-11, 203 pounds) or speed (4.50 40), but he could develop into a reliable No. 3 receiver. __________________ 1-1 Cleveland: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M 1-2 San Francisco: Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford 1-3 Chicago: Jamal Adams, S, LSU 1-4 Jacksonville: Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama 1-5 Tennessee: Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama 1-6 NY Jets: O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama 1-7 LA Chargers: Mike Williams, WR, Clemson 1-8 Carolina: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford 1-9 Cincinnati: Haason Reddick, LB, Temple 1-10 Buffalo: Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan 1-11 New Orleans: Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State 1-12 Cleveland: Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina 1-13 Arizona: Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan 1-14 Philadelphia: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State 1-15 Indianapolis: Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU 1-16 Baltimore: Forrest Lamp, OG, Ball State 1-17 Washington: Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State 1-18 Tennessee: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama 1-19 Tampa Bay: John Ross, WR, Washington 1-20 Denver: Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin 1-21 Detroit: Kevin King, CB, Washington 1-22 Miami: Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida 1-23 NY Giants: Charles Harris, DE, Missouri 1-24 Oakland: Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU 1-25 Houston: Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama 1-26 Seattle: Garett Bolles, OT, Utah 1-27 Kansas City: Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt 1-28 Dallas: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee 1-29 Green Bay: Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA 1-30 Pittsburgh: Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina 1-31 Atlanta: Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan 1-32 New Orleans: Adoree' Jackson, CB/PR, USC 2-33 Cleveland: Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan 2-34 San Francisco: Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech 2-35 Jacksonville: Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss 2-36 Chicago: DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State 2-37 LA Rams: Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy 2-38 LA Chargers: Dion Dawkins, OL, Temple 2-39 NY Jets: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson 2-40 Carolina: Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State 2-41 Cincinnati: Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan 2-42 New Orleans: Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio State 2-43 Philadelphia: Marcus Maye, S, Florida 2-44 Buffalo: David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.) 2-45 Arizona: Desmond King, CB, Iowa 2-46 Indianapolis: Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State 2-47 Baltimore: T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin 2-48 Minnesota: Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida 2-49 Washington: Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State 2-50 Tampa Bay: Budda Baker, S, Washington 2-51 Denver: Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland 2-52 Cleveland: Josh Jones, S, NC State 2-53 Detroit: Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma 2-54 Miami: Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado 2-55 NY Giants: Marcus Williams, S, Utah 2-56 Oakland: Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson 2-57 Houston: Nathan Peterman, QB, Pitt 2-58 Seattle: Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado 2-59 Kansas City: Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State 2-60 Dallas: Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA 2-61 Green Bay: Sidney Jones, CB, Washington 2-62 Pittsburgh: Tyus Bowser, OLB, Houston 2-63 Atlanta: Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut 2-64 Carolina: Taylor Moton, OT, Western Michigan 3-65 Cleveland: Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo 3-66 San Francisco: Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida 3-67 Chicago: Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State 3-68 Jacksonville: Aviante Collins, OT, TCU 3-69 LA Rams: ArDarius Stewart, WR, Alabama 3-70 NY Jets: Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana 3-71 LA Chargers: Jaleel Johnson, DT, Iowa 3-72 New England: Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn 3-73 Cincinnati: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC 3-74 Baltimore: Jake Butt, TE, Michigan 3-75 Buffalo: Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington 3-76 New Orleans: Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee 3-77 Arizona: Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State 3-78 Baltimore: Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech 3-79 Minnesota: Duke Riley, LB, LSU 3-80 Indianapolis: Jermaine Eluemunor, OG, Texas A&M 3-81 Washington: Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn 3-82 Denver: Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic 3-83 Tennessee: Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina 3-84 Tampa Bay: Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson 3-85 Detroit: Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio 3-86 Minnesota: Amara Darboh, WR, Michigan 3-87 NY Giants: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma 3-88 Oakland: D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas 3-89 Houston: Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky 3-90 Seattle: Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte 3-91 Kansas City: Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee 3-92 Dallas: Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama 3-93 Green Bay: James Conner, RB, Pitt 3-94 Pittsburgh: Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia 3-95 Atlanta: Dorian Johnson, OG, Pitt 3-96 New England: Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama 3-97 Miami: Zach Banner, OL, USC 3-98 Carolina: Adam Bisnowaty, OT, Pitt 3-99 Philadelphia: Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova 3-100 Tennessee: Bucky Hodges, TE, Virginia Tech 3-101 Denver: Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Georgia 3-102 Seattle: Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama 3-103 New Orleans: Derek Rivers, OLB, Youngstown State 3-104 Kansas City: DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame 3-105 Pittsburgh: Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU 3-106 Seattle: Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama 3-107 NY Jets: Alex Anzalone, OLB, Florida
None are probably worth a first round pick. Time to kick the can down the road again. ________________________ Joel Klatt's top 5 QBs: Kizer, Watson, Trubisky, Chad Kelly, Nathan Peterman ("Mahomes played a different position in college than what he'll be asked to do in the NFL.") ________________________ Jon Gruden on conference call: Most analysts are meh on the QB class. Not Jon Gruden. Says people are underestimating this group. Believes 4 will go in first round. Gruden says if he needed one of these QBs to start Day 1, he'd go with Pitt's Nathan Peterman. Compared him to Andy Dalton. Gruden on Peterman: "I think he’s a lot like Andy Dalton to me. ... He throws it pretty darn good and is very, very sharp." Gruden: Mitch Trubisky should have stayed in school. But says he's talented; called him a dual threat, which a lot of people don't realize. Gruden's 4 first-round QBs: Watson, Mahomes, Trubisky and sleeper (Kizer or Peterman).
Punt on selecting a quarterback within the first two rounds? sounds a lot like our tom brady-less offense. Granted we do need a tackle but it's going to be difficult for a 1st year tackle in this offense too.
The best thing for the Texans might be that all top four QBs are gone by 25. That would mean at least four higher rated players at other positions have dropped. Imagine Howard on this offense or Lattimore, Hooker, Foster on this defense. Best-case for me is Watson, 2nd best-case is all top 4 QBs are gone and very good prospects are now available.
This is how I see it playing out. As much talk about this being a "weak" class, we overrate QBs more than other position in sports. It'll just take one to start the domino effect, too many teams in need of one.
It could also go the other way. At some points last year; Cook, Prescott, and even Hackenberg (to the Texans) were all thought to be first round draft picks. Yet none of them were. Teams could make a big deal out of Waton's interceptions and velocity, Trubisky's lack of experience, Mahome's lack of "pocket presence" and Kizer's inconsistency. Unlikely, but possible.
I can see the Texans drafting a Webb/Dobbs/Peterman in rd 2/3, going BPA in rd 1, and rolling with Savage
Sure but also think we have more teams in absolute need of a QB (or could possibly draft one) than we did last year. Also I think it's a little different since there was such a perceived drop off after Goff, Wentz, and even Lynch. 2016: Rams Eagles Browns Jets Broncos 2017: Browns x 2 49ers Bears Jets Bills Cardinals Giants Houston Kansas City Could absolutely go either way but if I were a betting man, I'd bet 3 of those 4 are gone by #25.