Gotta be more creative than that if you're gonna go for it on fourth. Denver has been stuffing the run all game.
Either you kick that FG, or you play action pass - BOB is a fricken HORRID play caller.....and at LEAST try a hard count. DD
I don't know the analytics behind a decision like that, but I would just take whatever points you can get. Only gamble like that when you need to. On the road, early 2Q, with a slight lead? No need to risk anything; get the (nearly) guaranteed 3 points.