[Official] Spring Training Thread

He will get his shot in the two hole if Brantley isn’t ready to start season. Yordan might not be ready either so Peña won’t have him for back up.

 

So much debate over Peña, when the real discussion should be “we know Dusty is going to bat Tucker 6th because of his L/R/L fetish and Brantley’s seniority”. However, Tucker is likely to have an MVP caliber season given his likely age-based progression and shift rules. Why the holy hell isn’t he batting second?”

Altuve
Tucker
Yordan
Abreu
Bregman
Brantley
Peña
CF
C

Forget seniority. There is your lineup (maybe swap Bregman and Abreu … though I am assuming Jose comes back to historical average once removed from La Russa’s “try for grounders” philosophy).

 

In this lineup, the 6th spot in the lineup is the cleanup spot with probably the most RBI opportunities.

 

Great. So put the “professional hitter” there and let him stroke a few singles and drive home runs.

 

Because based on last season's stats, he is the 5th best player by OPS, 6th based on batting average and 7th based on OBP. Tucker is a slugger and sluggers don't bat second unless they can also hit for average.

 

Hunter Brown doin' GUUUUUUUUUUD . lolololololololol.

 

Probably want someone with more power in the "cleanup" spot. I like Brantely 7th. Given the "professional hitter" moniker we've given him, he doesn't need the protection that other hitters might need. Yuli won a batting title batting at the back end of our murders row.

 

Last season, the 2nd spot through 5th spot had more PAs with runners in scoring position with cleanup having the most. While I think adding another bat will extend the RBI opportunities, I still expect the same trend as the 1-3 hitters bat more and get on base a lot.

 

Everyone with a hangnail is now considered lost for the season.

LOL! Spring training is so extreme.

 

People sleep on Bielak too much in my opinion. I don’t mean as anything exciting but I’d be perfectly comfortable having him trot out there 20 times and expecting 5 or 6 innings and 3 or 4 runs. Which isn’t great, but if it’s your 8th starter in the organization that’s perception acceptable as a battle plan.

 

Unadjusted theoretical optimal line up:

1 OBP1
2 OBP2
3 OPS1
4 OPS2
5 SLG1
6 SLG2
7 OBP3
8 OBP4
9 OBP5

Vs Lefties

1. Hensley 467 OBP
2. McCormick 409 OBP
3. Altuve 1086 OPS
4. Alvarez 997 OPS
5. Pena 493 SLG
6. Maldonado 485 SLG
7. Abreu 387 OBP
8. Brantley 360 OBP
9. Bregman 345 OBP

Vs Righties

1. Bregman 377 OBP
2. Abreu 376 OBP
3. Hensley 1127 OPS
4. Alvarez 1031 OPS
5. Tucker 491 SLG
6. Altuve 487 SLG
7. Brantley 374 OBP
8. McCormick 301 OBP
9. Pena 274 OBP

 

Unadjusted theoretical optimal line up:

1 OBP1
2 OBP2
3 OPS1
4 OPS2
5 SLG1
6 SLG2
7 OBP3
8 OBP4
9 OBP5

Vs Lefties

1. Hensley 467 OBP
2. McCormick 409 OBP
3. Altuve 1086 OPS
4. Alvarez 997 OPS
5. Pena 493 SLG
6. Maldonado 485 SLG
7. Abreu 387 OBP
8. Brantley 360 OBP
9. Bregman 345 OBP

Vs Righties

1. Bregman 377 OBP
2. Abreu 376 OBP
3. Hensley 1127 OPS
4. Alvarez 1031 OPS
5. Tucker 491 SLG
6. Altuve 487 SLG
7. Brantley 374 OBP
8. McCormick 301 OBP
9. Pena 274 OBP

This is the starting point, not the finished product, particularly since you have to man all the positions.

 

Why do you have a fetish about using 20 and 50 AB sample sizes as if they have any real world meaning?

 

He's gone 5 or more innings with 4 or less runs 3 starts out of 8 (7 if you want to throw out the game that Arizona threw out a bunch of LHBs and he got yanked early for Taylor and Raley).

 

There is so much more to Pena's value than his bat.

Did you really just say that if the team doesn't put him in the #2 hole then he is not worth bring an MLB shortstop and need to be replaced?

If that's the case then his entire career will be smoke and mirrors. Give the guy some credit.

At least 50% of his value is his glove, another 10% is his legs. Let's say 5% is his energy and attitude.

That means that even if taking him out of the #2 hole turns him into Mario Mendoza or Adam Everett he still has at least 65% of his value.

But I don't even agree with that premise.

I'm sure he will be better if he hits #2. That is a very safe bet. But I think he is within 10% of MLB average either way= 90 OPS+ at bottom of order, 110 OPS+ in #2 hole.

The object is not to set up a lineup to maximize the production of 1 player. It is to maximize the production of 9 players.

Pena is better if he hits #2.
The team is better if Brantley hits #2.

 

Fangraphs had his last year's regular season production as 2/3 defense, 1/4 legs, and the rest bat. Postseason was a lot different.

Edit: I do expect Pena will produce more with the bat going forward.

 

Just 2 days ago it was maybe next weekend...

 

I do not have fetishes. This is just the numbers, not a finished product. adjustments for small sample sizes, filling all positions, optimizing L/R order, etc. are the next step.

 

Agreed, but doing away with the shift is going to really help Tucker's BA.