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[Official] Spring Training 2024

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Feb 18, 2024.

  1. Buck Turgidson

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    kaw1988 and No Worries like this.
  2. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Why would you think that? I certainly do not agree with that statement. I have no idea what Bregman would or would not agree to. I am sure he is aware that the Astros are not likely to exceed a contract of five years. They have been very straightforward on this point. A longer deal would be a non starter. If he feels he has to have more he will have to look elsewhere. Why would he insult the organization he has been a part of since his career began by insisting they break their own policy for him. He is a good player but he is not worth setting aside the teams standards or mortgaging their future over.
     
  3. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Hahahaha

    You got me. You actually came across as serious and it took me awhile to realize you were joking.

    Good one.
     
  4. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    Ozzie Smith can also do a back flip at 40, so that fits my narrative.

     
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  5. kaw1988

    kaw1988 Member

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    not to derail this thread too much, but this is my fav Bob Uecker story by the late great Norm Macdonald
     
    leroy, The Drake and Buck Turgidson like this.
  6. Buck Turgidson

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    Yeah, that would be terrible
     
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I broke this down by WAR.

    My feeling there are 4 types of seasons by WAR for a $25M+ contract.
    5+ has exceeded the deal
    3-4.9 has been worth the deal
    2-2.9 not ideal but OK
    <2 is bad

    Ages 31-33:
    avg: 3.7
    5+: 14/45 = 31%
    3-4.9: 13/45 = 29%
    2-2.9: 6/45 = 13%
    <2: 12/45 = 27%

    Age 34: 2.9 /33% /20% /7% /40%
    Age 35: 3.4 /21% /43% /0 /36%
    Age 36: 3.0 /20% /27% /13% /40%
    Age 37: 2.6 /25% /8% /25% /42%
    Age 38: 2.5 /0 /38% / 24% /38%
    Age 39: 2.7 /0 /50% /33% /17%
    Age 40: 1.6 /0 /20% /20% /60%
    Age 41: -0.2 /0 /0 /0 /100%

    So the average of a 7 yr contract would be 23.0 WAR
    $225M = $9.8M / WAR
    $210M = $9.1M / WAR
    $200M = $8.7M / WAR
    $175M = $7.6 M / WAR

    Age 37 is the last year you can expect a 3+ WAR season. The risk of a season below 2 is above 25% throughout, even at the early seasons of the contract.

    Today I will do Tucker. My expectation is that we find out a 10 year /$250+M deal is pretty good investment.
     
    #67 IdStrosfan, Feb 21, 2024
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2024
  8. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Only half kidding, but I couldn't resist. All in good fun.
     
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  9. Rockets34Legend

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  10. ipaman

    ipaman Member

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    I didn't even know he was sick
     
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  11. Rockets34Legend

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  12. torque

    torque Member
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    For the third straight year, I am convinced that Jake Meyers is going to break out and become a star. My bold prediction for this year is that he posts more than 4 WAR.
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I predict one of Meyers, Cabbage, Pena, Loperfido, or Leon put up at least 3 fwar this season.
     
  14. The Beard

    The Beard Member

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    Of that group I would easily go with Pena. He is a stud defensively, and has showed that he has the ability to be explosive on offense as well
     
  15. Marshall Bryant

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    They all put up 1 so we get 5 total.
     
  16. raining threes

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    How many more years are you going to holdout hope?

    BTW, I hope you're right, but it's time for Meyers to prove he's anything more than a 4t OF'er.
     
  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Pena got 3.4 his rookie year so probably shouldn't even be on this list. 70% probably.

    Meyers got 1.7 in 341 PAs last year. That's 2.5 over 500 PA. I think with just slight improvement, more consistency, and 500+ PA he can get 3 fWAR. 40%?

    I don't see a path for any of the others.

    Cabbage? Chas got 2.3 and 2.0 his first 2 seasons. Do you think he will outperform what Chas did or get enough playing time for that to be a discussion?

    Loperfido? I expect him to spend at least half the season in AAA. I just don't see him making thecteam based in his experience level and who he's competing against.

    Leon? I only see this if he beats out Meyers in the spring. If he and Meyers both make the team he won't get enough playing time. If he wins the starting CF job then growing pains probably keep him under 3 but he could explode.
     
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  18. raining threes

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    This is what Brown/Espada are banking on.
     
  19. Marshall Bryant

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    I'm still holding out hope Alvarez spends more time in LF than DH.
     
  20. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    This year will be the deciding one.

    Either he takes the job and becomes a 3 WAR starter, or some combination of Leon/Corona/Melton overtake him and he becomes filler in a deadline trade.
     

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