FYI this may take me most of the day since I'm at work. There were 20 second basemen including Altuve and only 1 was in the top 5. (and I excluded Cano from the exercise) There are 32 third basemen including 8 of the top 11 and 14 of the top 20. 7 of them including Alex (#43) are still active. 2B is a more historically good position, 3B is a more recently good position.
Very interesting analysis on Altuve- I am less worried now … even a drop off to 100 OPS+ from a majority 2B is a very useful player (we will be lucky to get that from 1B the next few years). I am curious about 3B given the higher offensive expectations. You have been an amazing contributor to the board - thank you.
Due to various reasons (international/domestic and training/nutritional) the SS position changed (bigger, stronger, faster) and that overflow changed the 3B and 2B positions...i.e. "if you can't quite cut it there, move over left or right". Your 50 years of data should probably be drilled down to the past 20-30.
Thanks for the suggestion. I think that makes a lot of sense for 3B. For 2B, most of the comps were 20-50 years ago but 3B has plenty within 30. I'll take you up on it, by ignoring 3B who last played before 1994. That drops the comps down to 22 and more accurate, thanks.
Shifts became more prevalent putting a lot more stress on 3B, and making 2B easier. Even with current rules, 3B will likely have the better defender (arm focused, but must cover decent chunk of real estate when SS is as close to 2B as possible) who also typically is a better player.
That's a good point. Also, the hitting profile, generally, has changed to emphasize power over contact over this period.
I was mostly just referring to sheer volume of good players. 80s and 90s had Randolph, Grich, Whitaker, Sandberg, Alomar etc at 2B Recent 3B is loaded w/ Beltre, Rolen, Arenodo, Machado, even guys like Wright, Zimmerman, Donaldson, and too many to mention.
Look at the best SS in MLB in 1990 vs now. Small, quick, cover ground, great hands, catch everything, solid arm...bat 8th or 9th That's not how it is anymore. Who was the last-best glove only SS? Andrelton Simmons? Has there been one since?
I was just saying that in years past, the failed shortstops or shortstops with teams that have shortstops became 2B mostly. These guys are mostly highly skilled players causing 2B to have a lot of great players historically (i.e., they can hit, but just not quite good enough defensively for SS). Lately, these guys have been becoming 3B whether in the minors or at the MLB level. Teams putting their better players at 3B more often, partly due to the shift causing 3B to be more important, is going to cause 3B to have a greater quantity of better players. It was just in 2016 that a lot of Astros fans thought Bregman was going to be a 2B. There were suggestions to trade him since Altuve was there or to put Altuve at DH. There was at least one discussion with multiple back and forths I had on this board that the idea of Bregman being a 3B was just not something the other poster even considered as a possibility.
Nick Ahmed had a couple of good years before injuries with one of those more recent than Simmons's last good year.
https://climbingtalshill.com/posts/...from-dodgers-for-next-to-nothing-01hq3hk1tvsy Headline is misleading, but Astros added another NRI RP.
I think we can all agree that Alex is not signing a contract of less than 6 years, so I used age 36 as my minimum longevity for comps. 15 of the top 50 all time 3B (per JAWS) played into their age 36 season since 1994. This extension will cover Alex's age 31 - ? seasons. If a player had less than 200 PA in a season I designated them injured, and did not count their OPS+ Age 30= 15 of 15 healthy w/ 137.6 OPS+ Age 31= 14 of 15 healthy w/ 118.9 OPS+ Age 32= 14 of 15 healthy w/ 118.5 OPS+ Age 33= 14 of 15 healthy w/ 121.6 OPS+ Age 34= 13 of 15 healthy w/ 118.4 OPS+ Age 35= 13 of 15 healthy w/ 120.3 OPS+ Age 36= 13 of 15 healthy w/ 121.5 OPS+ During age 36 season, Ventura and Chavez got hurt and their careers were over w/ neither getting 200 PA. Zimmerman retired after 36. Age 37= 10 of 12 healthy w/ 117.8 OPS+ Longoria was 37 in 2023. Donaldson had less than 200 PA in 2023 and who knows. Matt Williams had less than 200 PA and was done. Age 38= 8 of 9 healthy w/ 110.5 OPS+ Rolen hung on in ages 38 and 39 seasons but got less than 200 PA in each. Tim Wallach retired after age 38. Justin Turner was 38 in 2023. Age 39= 6 of 7 healthy w/ 116.3 OPS+ In addition to Rolen, age 39 was Beltre's last season. Age 40= all 5 were healthy w/ 103.0 OPS+ Chipper stepped away after 40. Age 41= 3 of 4 were healthy w/ 90.7 OPS+ Gaetti only managed a few PAs at 41. I didn't go any further because it's very unlikely Bregman's contract will be over 11 years. My takeaway is: ages 31-33 there's about a 14% reduction in production and 6.7% lost seasons due to injury. Ages 34-36 there's no further reduction, but the chances of injury double to 13.3%. Age 37: 20% chance can no longer play, 17% chance of injury but the other 63% are just as productive. Age 38: 40% chance can no longer play 11% chance of injury but 49% who make it are still good. Age 39: 53% chance can no longer play and 14% injured. The other 33% are still very good. Age 40: Only 33% will still be playing and they will be average. Age 41: 73% won't make it. 25% who do will be unable to give 200+ PA. The remaining players will he 10% below average. This tells me: 6 yr deal = 85% production min. Injury risk throughout 7 yr deal= 85% production small increase injury risk 8 yr deal= 80% production medium injury risk 9 yr deal= 80% production med-high injury risk 10 yr deal= 75% production high injury risk 11+ yr deal= 65% production significant injury risk.
That seems like it would bode pretty well for Bregman to get a 9-10 year deal in the $250M-$300M range, if not more.
The top 5 shortstops in 1990 were Ripken, Trammell, Larkin, Tony Fernandez, and Walt Weiss. Ripken was obviously an anomaly but Larkin wasn't exactly small and Tony Fernandez was skinny but 6 ft 2 inches tall. So this was right around when you started seeing some bigger guys. The following year Travis Fryman and Jay Bell were pretty damn good and neither were tiny dudes.
Those were the top 5 guys in WAR so I would say all around. Vizquel only played 81 games in 1990. He started rolling with the gold gloves in 1993. Ozzie Guillen and Ozzie Smith won the gold gloves in 1990 and would fit your narrative. However, Ripken and Trammell each put up 6.2 WAR which was more than Guillen and Smith put up combined. Larkin was 3rd with 5.4
Fryman proves my point a bit...he was a SS, played there for 1 year or so, then moved to 3B for the rest of his career. Jay Bell is a better comp (he could hit! a bit, for a SS), but he was a shitty SS who should have moved elsewhere.
You ****ers with a strong option or recollection of Jay Bell in 1990 mist be older than me- I was 12. Very dim memories of him.
