thoughts on my first draft of the season? 1. ray rice 2. matt forte 3. brandon marshall 4. victor cruz 5. darren mcfadden 6. lamar miller 7. jordan cameron 8. desean jackson 9. benjarvus green-ellis 10. ty hilton 11. tony romo 12. vincent brown 13. bernard pierce 14. andy dalton 15. matt prater 16. cowboys dst qb - romo/Dalton rb - rice/forte/McFadden/miller/bjge/pierce wr - marshall/cruz/desean/Hilton/brown te - Cameron k - tprater dst - cowboys
I have the 4th pick in a QB/WR oriented PPR league and am not sure if I want to go QB, TE, RB or WR with the first pick. Here's what's important - QB's (TD=6) (+2 at 300) (+4 at 400) (+2 50yd pass) (-2 INT) - RB's (+2 at 100) (+4 at 200) (+2 50yd rush) - WR's (+2 at 100) (+4 at 200) (+2 50yd catch) - PPR - 11 teams - 2WR, 2RB, 1flex - most important - it's a money league Ideally I'd land Bush and Forte in the 2nd and 3rd then Manning in the 4th meaning I could take Megatron or Graham in round 1. But I think QB's might go early and guys like Bryant, Marshall and Green will fly off in round 2. A few traditionally ranked tier 2 RB's will drop. If Martin is there I probably take him. If it's Foster/Charles/Rice/Richardson/McCoy I'm not sure. A guy like Bryant or Megatron probably has more 100 yard catching games than those RB's will have rushing games... I could also reach for Brees or Rodgers and bank on guaranteed production along with plenty of 300yd passing bonuses. I'm in a pickle and probably overthinking it. Any feedback?
Ziggy, what makes you think this is a QB/WR oriented league? Comparing the RB and WR bonuses I would imagine the RBs get them more often, and makes them more valuable. I see the 6pt TDs for QB and some bonuses for large yardages, but the yardage bonus won't really change anything. Honestly, this makes me target Stafford/Romo as value even more than going after the Brees/Rodgers (unless they drop). 4th pick, DO NOT take Graham, you have to go RB, there are 7/8 elite RBs, you MUST take those with those early picks. I'd try to go RB/RB/WR/then QB or WR, but obviously that matters on how the draft goes.
I'd say if Brees lasts till the 4th pick you take him. Especially with this being a QB/WR driven league. From there I believe Graham should be available in the 2nd round, I was astonished that I was able to nab him in the 3rd round of my league with the same style. But if I were you I'd take a solid QB and if there are none left just go AP, he fell all the way to 5th since the first 4 picks were QBs in that same league I mentioned. Anyway good luck, I hope you pass out from drunkness before your 1st pick, then your team will have a sure shot at being in contention!
Looking at Brees compared to the 11th QB (Andy Dalton) the difference in points will be about 100 pts for the season. If you look at RBs, if you take someone like Martin or Rice and compare them to someone that will go around Andy Dalton's level, you'd be looking at like Ingram or Ballard, maybe Green-Ellis. Those players will be about 150 pts behind (300 pts compared to about 150, maybe a little difference with those extra yard bonuses). These are conservative projections as I was predicting those QBs to go a little earlier. Dalton you could probably grab even later. What I would do is just take a Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton and play match ups instead of wasting a 1st round pick on Brees/Rodgers, especially 4th overall. This is why you have to go RB. Also, after Andy Dalton, you have much better QB options left than after Ballard/Green-Ellis the RBs get really thin. You have to look at maximize value at each round and in the draft as a whole, and not just maximizing points in each individual round.
Just drafted last night for my $$$ league. This is just my 3rd draft and I'm hoping for a better result this time around. Roto draft kit projects me as #4 out of 10 with 9 wins. I had the 5th pick. Your thoughts please: 1. Arian Foster 2. AJ Green 3. Peyton Manning 4. DeMarco Murray 5. DeSean Jackson 6. Vernon Davis 7. Montee Ball 8. Lance Moore 9. Houston DST 10. Austin Miles 11. DeAndre Hopkins 12. D. Heyward-Bey 13. Big Ben 14. Justin Tucker 15. LaMichael James QB: Peyton Manning, Big Ben RB: Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, LaMichael James WR: AJ Green, DeSean Jackson, Lance Moore, Austin Miles, DeAndre Hopkins, D. Deyward-Dey TE: Vernon Davis DST: Houston Texans Kicker: Justin Tucker More Info: Passing: Yards-25=1pt, TD-4, Picks-(2) Rush: Yards10=1pt, TD=6 Rec: Yards10=1pt, TD=6
That's the main reason he went 1st overall in my league. You also have to consider that their defense will be very bad for another year. They could slightly improve but I definitely see the Saints having high scoring games week in and week out. Please don't target guys like Ballard and Green-Ellis in the later rounds, I'd rather take my chances with rookies like Gio Bernard, Monte Ball, Eddie Lacy or second year guys like Daryl Richardson or Lamar Miller. You can find RB help in the later rounds you just have to project your draft and from there determine who will be available by your pick in each round.
Those points were based on your scoring, without the 300+, 400+ bonuses, but considering them. Lets look at two examples though. 1 QB that will go in the 1st round in your league, and 1 that will go 5th or 6th round. Both players played all 16 games last season, comparing last season's stats, although that obviously isn't an end all be all, it's a good comparison. Also, you didn't clarify if you're doing 1 pt per 20 or 25 yards for QBs, i'll assume 25, it doesn't change this much 1st round QB 2012 stats: 4,295 yards = 171.8 fantasy points 39 TD = 234 8 INT = -16 300+ games 6 = 12 400+ games 0 = 0 50+ yrd pass = don't have the numbers on this Total fantasy points = 401.8, I would guess that this QBs #s will be roughly the same, maybe 1 oe 2 more 300+/400+ games 5th/6th round QB: 4,903 yrds = 196.12 28 TD = 168 19 INT = -38 300 + yrd games 6 (not including his 400+ games) = 12 400+ yrd games 3 = 12 50+ passes = ???? Total: 350.12 (if pass yards are 1pt/20yrds, he has less of a disadvantage in pts. So here you have a difference of 50pts, while drafting 4 or 5 rounds later. For reference: The first QB is Spoiler Aaron Rodgers The second QB is Spoiler Tony Romo So if you went RB instead first, you'd be getting a Martin/Rice opposed to a 5th round RB. Martin/Rice will get you over 300 pts (projections) while a 4th/5th rounder RB will be projected around 160/170, creating a much larger value in going RB in the 1st round. I could do a detailed RB breakdown like this QB breakdown, but I think you understand the point.
Shouldn't take a dst that high, always last two rds. Also Deandre could have been had on waivers, you played with your heart. Lamicheal is also unattractive and youdidn't secure Tate as your handcuff to foster. Not wild about Ben Roth either, i would look at waivers for a player like flacco or even palmer. The more i look, the more i don't like it, miles is average at best now a days. Your team looks really weak in most positions. You should have not drafted a qb so early, they are going much later this year, and the drop off isn't that far from Manning to a player like romo. You should have snagged a second big name rb or at worse wr.
In an intelligent draft, Bernard/Lacy, Richardson and Miller should go a few rounds ahead of Green-Ellis and Ballard, so I don't think your point is that valid, you'd miss out on those guys you need. Also, Ball could be a major bust, they haven't decided on their starter yet.
It's not about being intelligent or not. If you have players that are of more value they will tend to go higher than in normal format drafts. Again I am going to reference my own draft to make my point: 1. Drew Brees 2. Aaron Rodgers 3. Tom Brady 4. Peyton Manning 5. Adrian Peterson 6. Arian Foster 7. Calvin Johnson 8. Marshawn Lynch 9. Matt Ryan 10. Ray Rice 11. Tony Romo 12. Andrew Luck And that's just the 1st round. Yes you have to consider the fact that we had one uber homer that chose Romo in the first but do you see the trend here? Most of the top QBs are already off the board by the end of the 2nd: 13. Doug Martin 14. Jamaal Charles 15. Colin Kaepernick 16. LeSean McCoy 17. CJ Spiller 18. Matthew Stafford 19. Robert Griffin III 20. Alfred Morris 21. Trent Richardson 22. Matt Forte 23. Brandon Marshall 24. Julio Jones That's 10 QBs all selected within the 1st two rounds! And as you can see there are still guys/girl sprinkling in the top RBs available when the QB they want or already have is or isn't available. I understand where you're coming from, but these aren't regular format leagues therefore these guys will be in high demand when the majority are being taken in the early rounds, as shown above. I totally dig your style of drafting cause that's been mine for the most part as well, but just not for these type of leagues. It just wouldn't work as well.
I had one of these leagues too where like 9 QBs went 1st round, including RG3 and I went Jamaal Charles and then Lynch feel to me 2nd round cause everyone went QB. I then got Stafford 5th round because all the teams got theQB they wanted and I got the one that was left. I like my team a lot better like this opposed to reaching for QB because everyone else was.
That absolutely worked out in your favor. But a potential top 10 guy like Stafford would not have been available in our draft. If you would be willing to settle with a guy like Eli, Vick, or Andy Dalton then that would be your strategy. And who knows with luck on your side one of those guys could have a breakout year and win you the title. You're always taking the risk of sacrificing QB play for having 2 top 10 RBs who come nowhere near the amount of points you'd receive weekly, not total throughout the season, from a top 10 QB. Lower tier guys are sometimes a gamble especially when they're injury risks like Vick. And these are the types of guys you'd have to target with your strategy.
Jesus, what is the scoring format in that one? At this point I'm hoping to reach for Manning in the 3rd or settle for Brady/Ryan in the 4th/5th. Otherwise it's probably Romo or even Stafford way later. Leaning towards Spiller or Martin. If both are gone I'll consider Brees or Rodgers.
Well in the draft I referenced I did get lucky and could not have imagined a better draft. But, on the other hand, I think there are 12 QBs that don't have much of a difference (Brees/Rodgers are very good) but I wouldn't mind starting each of the first 12, and for me it's about getting the best value at QB. The good thing about there being 12 good QBs is that, unless a team is drafting TWO QBs early, you'll be left with one of them "late" in terms of drafting a starting QB. So I'll take the value at RB early, because the drop off in RB talent is HUGE between the top RBs and RBs after the top 24, the difference between the top QBs and the difference in the 12-15 QBs is not as big. The other advantage about going QB late and backup QB a little bit after that is you get to play matchups, which is pretty significant for passing attacks, in my opinion. To sum up my point in regards to this and fantasy drafts in general, it is NOT about who you are picking, but it's about who you are passing up on. Brees is good, but is it worth it to pass up on the few good RBs that are there?
We're all familiar with the tiered categorization of players. We realize the dropoff between QB1 and QB12 is larger than RB1 and RB24. No need to continuously outline it. Aside from that, look at several of last year's top RB's. McFadden, Mathews, Murray, CJ2K, McCoy, etc... they didn't pan out. Then you had a handful of late round fliers make it big. This happens every year. When you take an RB like Charles or Foster over the guaranteed production of an elite passing QB in a 6pt TD league you're taking a big risk. What's tough about my position is if I go QB early and luck out with Forte in the 2nd I'll likely be missing out on the elite WR's, however I think Amendola, Cobb and Cruz will be fine options if in this format. Also, the dropoff between QB's might be bigger than you think in a 6 pt TD league, guys like RG3 and Kaepernick would need to contribute a lot of rushing TD's to match a guy like Rodgers. Plus there's a consistency factor, RGIII may go and get you 2 passing TD's and 2 rushing TD's one week then finish with 1 passing TD off 215 yards the next. Brees, Rodgers, Manning - those guys bring it every week.
