I don't care who you are, if your 3, 4 and 5 hitters are all hitting less than .230, you are screwed.
And while Berkman and Lee are getting older, they aren't senior citizens. They are 34 and 33, respectively, and both younger than A-Rod. Berkman just turned 34. Plenty of hitters still produce at that age. They are both still great hitters and will rebound over the next couple of months. It won't make us a good team but their numbers will improve dramatically if they stay healthy.
Yes, and 2 of our guys are mid 30s (plus one of them is fat), so a decline is not all that surprising.
Just looking at the recent Astros, Biggio, Bagwell, Alou and Kent were all performing just fine around age 33/34. Lots of the first basemen slugger types - Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, etc - all performed well into their mid-to-late 30's at peak levels. Pitchers have success at that age all the time. For example, no one thinks of Roy Halladay as particularly old or about to decline, but he's 33 right now. Even in basketball, players are often fine at age 33/34. Hakeem and Clyde were 33 in our 2nd championship season. I think players peak athletically around 27-30, but then sustain for many years before beginning to decline. Certainly, Berkman/Lee are at that point where they would be at the beginnings of a decline, but they should be useful MLB players for several more years.
Bill James has pointed to the age of 33 as an important point of decline. Of course there are exceptions (especially in the roid era) but historically 33 is not a good year for hitters. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/06/29/james.33/index.html Bill: Historically, hitters' bats die at age 33 ... not always, of course, but there is quite significantly more loss in batting ability at age 33 than at any other age. Let me give you a few for-instances from history ... and obviously, I'm just hitting a few highlights; there are many others involving players with less recognizable names. 1) Hall of Famer Hack Wilson 1932, age 32: .297, 23 homers, 123 RBIs 1933, age 33: .267, 9 homers, 54 RBIs 2) Hall of Famer Al Simmons 1934, age 32: .344, 18 homers, 104 RBIs 1935, age 33: .267, 16 homers, 79 RBIs 3) Hall of Famer Heinie Manush 1934, age 32: .349, 11 homers, 89 RBIs 1935, age 33: .273, 4 homers, 56 RBIs 4) Hall of Famer Tony Lazzeri 1936, age 32: .287, 14 homers, 109 RBIs 1937, age 33: .244, 14 homers, 70 RBIs 5) Hall of Famer Bill Dickey 1939, age 32: .302, 24 homers, 105 RBIs 1940, age 33: .247, 9 homers, 54 RBIs 6) Walker Cooper 1947, age 32: .305, 35 homers, 122 RBIs 1948, age 33: .266, 16 homers, 54 RBIs 7) Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr 1950, age 32: .294, 27 homers, 120 RBIs 1951, age 33: .289, 13 homers, 73 RBIs 8) Gus Zernial 1955, age 32: .254, 30 homers, 84 RBIs 1956, age 33: .224, 16 homers, 44 RBIs 9) Del Ennis, perpetual 100-RBI guy 1956, age 32: .286, 24 homers, 105 RBIs 1957, age 33: .261, 3 homers, 47 RBIs 10) Hall of Famer, Duke Snider 1959, age 32: .308, 23 homers, 88 RBIs 1960, age 33: .243, 14 homers, 36 RBIs 11) Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle 1964, age 32: .303, 35 homers, 111 RBIs 1965, age 33: .255, 19 homers, 46 RBIs 12) Bill White, slugging first baseman, later National League president 1966, age 32: .276, 22 homers, 103 RBIs 1967, age 33: .250, 8 homers, 33 RBIs 13) Rocky Colavito 1966, age 32: .238, 30 homers, 72 RBIs 1967, age 33: .231, 8 homers, 50 RBIs 14) Hall of Famer Al Kaline 1967, age 32: .308, 25 homers, 78 RBIs 1968, age 33: .287, 10 homers, 53 RBIs 15) Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda 1970, age 32: .305, 34 homers, 111 RBIs 1971, age 33: .276, 14 homers, 44 RBIs 16) Hall of Famer Willie McCovey 1970, age 32: .289, 39 homers, 126 RBIs 1971, age 33: .277, 18 homers, 70 RBIs 17) Dick Allen 1974, age 32: .301, 32 homers, 88 RBIs 1975, age 33: .233, 12 homers, 62 RBIs 18) Hall of Famer George Brett 1985, age 32: .335, 30 homers, 112 RBIs 1986, age 33: .290, 16 homers, 73 RBIs 19) Hall of Famer Eddie Murray 1988, age 32: .284, 28 homers, 84 RBIs 1989, age 33: .247, 20 homers, 88 RBIs 20) Amos Otis 1979, age 32: .295, 18 homers, 90 RBIs 1980, age 33: .251, 10 homers, 53 RBIs 21) George Foster 1981, age 32: .295, 22 homers, 90 RBIs in a strike-shortened season of 108 games 1982, age 33: .247, 13 homers, 70 RBIs in a full season of 151 games 22) Andre Thornton 1982, age 32: .273, 32 homers, 116 RBIs 1983, age 33: .281, 17 homers, 77 RBIs 23) Greg Luzinski 1983, age 32: .255, 32 homers, 95 RBIs 1984, age 33: .238, 13 homers, 58 RBIs 24) Buddy Bell 1984, age 32: .315, 11 homers, 83 RBIs 1985, age 33: .229, 10 homers, 68 RBIs 25) Alan Trammell 1990, age 32: .308, 14 homers, 89 RBIs 1991, age 33: .248, 9 homers, 55 RBIs 26) George Bell 1992, age 32: .255, 25 homers, 112 RBIs 1993, age 33 .217, 13 homers, 64 RBIs 27) Cecil Fielder 1996, age 32: .252., 39 homers, 117 RBIs 1997, age 33: .260, 13 homers, 61 RBIs 28) Albert Belle 1999, age 32: .297, 37 homers, 117 RBIs 2000, age 33: .281, 23 homers, 103 RBIs 29) Brian Jordan 1999, age 32: .283, 23 homers, 115 RBIs 2000, age 33: .264, 17 homers, 77 RBIs 30) Bill Mueller 2003, age 32: .326 (led American League), 19 homers, 83 RBIs 2004, age 33: .283, 12 homers, 57 RBIs 31) Jason Giambi 2003, age 32: .250, 41 homers, 107 RBIs 2004, age 33: .208, 12 homers, 40 RBIs 32) Cliff Floyd 2005, age 32: .273, 34 homers, 98 RBIs 2006, age 33 .244, 11 homers, 44 RBIs 33) Ivan Rodriguez 2004, age 32: .334, 19 homers, 86 RBIs 2005, age 33: .276, 14 homers, 50 RBIs The human body is like bread that won't stop baking. Age 33 is about the age at which you KNOW the bread is getting over-done and you wish that you could turn off the oven, but you just can't.
I would argue that a lot of the players you listed are from past eras - you didn't have nearly the full time conditioning, diets, workouts, etc that you do now. I would venture to guess that stuff lengthens careers a lot. Looking at the most 4 recent examples you listed: #30 - Mueller's 2003 season was a total anomoly and was a crazy career year. His 2004 and 2005 seasons were very similar to the rest of his career. In fact, both were actually better than his career averages. #31: Giambi sucked at age 33, but went right back and had great years the following two years (both better than his career averages) and then again at age 37. #32: Cliff Floyd certainly started a decline (really, at age 31), but his age 34 and 35 seasons were actually better than his 33. #33: I-Rod definitely took a nosedive at age 33 and never really came back around. So really, 2 of those 4 didn't suffer any real drop related to age at 33 - just a fluke season. One did, and one actually started declining around 31.
My question is whether that really has to do with modern conditioning or whether it was really steroids. You are right about Mueller, though with a career year at 32 you wonder what kind of "conditioning" he was going. Giambi did come back, though I wonder if his steroid use help extend his career, even if that use was in the past. I don't see Floyd's 34 and 35 years being much better. His ops was up a bit, but his power never returned. Anyways, my point is that we are returning more to a historical norm as players age. We won't have guys like Bonds setting records in the mid to late 30s anymore. A lot of the steroid era guys are going to be exceptions.
Those are some good posts, Mr. Clutch. Interesting data. Still, I think we'll all agree that what Berkman and particularly Lee are doing right now are more of just ridiculously and flukey bad starts. Even if you subscribe fully to the decline at 33 theory and use those same numbers above, they shouldn't have this kind of decline. It's also a matter of sample size. A lot of players around the league, pitchers and hitters, have quirky numbers in either direction after 30 games. Teixeira was hitting in the .170s up until yesterday with not much power. Bengie Molina looked like Joe Mauer for a while. Beckett had an ERA around 8.00 last I looked. Berkman and Lee, if they both stay healthy, will improve dramatically. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee finish the season with about an .825 OPS and Berkman somewhere around .900. Also remember that Berkman missed about half of the season. His sample size is way too small to draw conclusions, esp. given that he had arthro and then a groin injury. Even if Berkman loses a little bat speed and pop, he won't lose his eye.
I just heard that Dallas Braden of the A's threw the 19th perfect game in history tonight and he didn't against the powerhouse Rays.
He said a number of lame things during the game. I think my favorite was when Corey Sullivan (hitting? .138) came in to pinch hit and he lauded Mills' ability to keep his bench players fresh by using them often so they can produce. Also, immediately after Brown said that Oswalt put down his 2nd sacrifice of the year, he talked about how great Roy has been bunting and he has yet to fail this year on a bunt.
The more I heard Jeff Bagwell on saturday night, the more I liked him. I doubt he'd want to take a full-time gig, or even do only home games, but he was very insightful and had a lot more comments about in-game strategy that you don't get from Deshaies as much. Also, I always found him to be rather dry in his interviews as a player (along with Mr. cliche Biggio), but it was a welcome change to see him actually cracking jokes and "rooting" for the Astros like a true homer commentator.
Yea, didn't really like him on the telecast either, pretty dry and not overly insightful. I wish they would do more with Dierker but doesn't seem to be something he really wants to do anymore.
Spot on, love Baggy's approach for someone who has never done it before. He seems to have good chemistry with Brownie and JD while providing very good takes on in-game strategy.
