Educated guesses. The Astros are 90% favorites to make the postseason right now. 10% is a pretty big number for this close to the end of the season (i.e., while the odds are the Astros should make the postseason, it should not be a shock if they don't).
I'm not sure what people want from Abreu - he has an OPS of well over .800 the last month and is hitting for a lot of power now as well. He had a terrible start to the season, and he has dealt with chronic back inflammation, but has battled and shown that he isn't toast, but is only dealing with injuries. The fact that the injections have worked usually mean that the issue is muscle related and not skeletal, so he isn't likely to need surgery. His glove isn't as good at Yuli (and overall the Astros defense needs to improve some), but he is providing power and his BABIP will go up, it always has.
Either the Rangers or Mariners are guaranteed 4 loses due to their 7 head-to-head games. That's why the playoffs magic number is 4 less than the division even though it's the same teams in both scenarios as of today.
We’ll catch the Diamondbacks (who have won 5 straight) in that last series as they battle for their WC spot. Need to get all three of these games vs. KC
Abreu's OPS is slightly below 0.800 for the last 30 days with an OPS of 0.645 vs. RHPs. Diaz has an OPS slightly over 0.950 since June 1 (over 1 for RHPs, 6th best in baseball, min 200 PAs vs RHPs in that time period), and is best at C and 1B. Chas has an OPS slightly below 0.900 since June 1. I want Chas and Diaz as everyday players outside of load management. Even Abreu at an OPS of 0.800 is not good enough to play Abreu over them (except vs LHPs regarding Diaz*). I value CF defense such that Meyers should be in CF versus LHPs. When Maldy is a catcher and a RHP is on the mound, Diaz should be on 1B most days as I don't think Abreu's defense is good enough to make up for being a significantly worse bat. When your competition for playing time is Alvarez, Brantley, and Diaz for 2-3 spots, batting 0.800 is not good enough (assuming he doesn't have any setbacks) to be a fulltime hitter unless Alvarez is in the OF (no more playing Dubon in the OF) and Diaz is at C (Maldy at C only once per series). *Diaz is getting better vs LHPs.
That isn't a near Altuve season. I like Dubon as a bench player and he plays multiple spots well - completely deserves 200-250 at bats a season but lets not get carried away. For the year he has 19 walks and only an OB% of 311.... Jose Altuve has an OB% of .400 His OPS+ is only .99 (very slightly below average)..... Jose Altuve has an OPS+ of 150 He has a slugging of under .420..... Jose Altuve has a slugging of 545
I have Abreu at .805 OPS the last month and that included an unsustainable BABIP of .207. Abreu is limited to DH or 1st obviously. I want Chas in centerfield 90% of the time and Diaz should be the starting catcher... so there shouldn't be an issue with Abreu getting at bats when he is playing well like he is the last month or so. I would Alvarez or Brantley in LF. I think that the improvement in offense more than off sets the defensive liability. The Astros then have no obvious weaknesses in the line up other than sometimes Jeremy Pena. Altuve/Brantley/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker//McCormick/Diaz/Abreu/Pena DH is going to likely rotate anyway. I don't mind Diaz playing first over Abreu - but he should be catching.
Abreu had a tough season ( or parts of the season) but has been good in the clubhouse and dugout and should not need to be the 3rd orv4th best hitter on this team. He should be sitting once per week, vs a RHP, every week due to his age and back. That alone could raise his production above MLB average levels. This should have Been happening since May after his poor start. To me, he is unquestionably the Astros best 1B option for now and 2024 though.
If once assumes Diaz is catching then sure. But Diaz isn't catching, he's collecting dust despite having the 4th best OPS on the team. And don't give me the defense BS because Abreu sucks defensively also. Either Brantley or Abreu need to start sitting more, something has got to give if Dusty refuses to let Diaz catch.
I doubt it. I’m sure a replacement level player could get on base 28% of the time. Abreu couldn’t do that in august or september this year. Will finish the season under .300 on base %. People point to his rbi’s, which aren’t that great for hitting in the middle of this order every single day, but he is on pace to score 60 runs for the entire season. Batting in the middle of the order, this is unacceptable. Also, the eye test. He is simply overmatched by so many pitchers. Swings at complete trash. Misses the ball by a foot sometimes. He has been a complete joke for that salary.
The Astros can have Diaz play first and have Abreu DH if they believe the splits with Diaz on/off the field are real. Diaz and Abreu together are a lot of power for the Astros..... Diaz has 6 homers in the last 30 days and Abreu has 6 as well. The downside in that the OBP isn't great.
I don't necessarily agree that OB% is the only valuable skill. The key is hitting him 6th-8th in the order if his OB% is below .300 His OB% is 60 points above his BA which is plenty good enough (Diaz is viewed as a star hitter with an OB% that is only 24 pts above his BA) as long as he can get his BA over .250 and he hits in the bottom 1/2 of the lineup. I think this is possible and actually probable if he sits at least 1 game per week. He has done this throughout his career and did it in June and July. That gives me hope for 2024 as long as the manager does not try to start him 10+ or 40+ consecutive games without a break. If he is below league average at every hitting skill except for RBI and he is the 7th best hitter behind Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Tucker, Chas, and Diaz then he will be perfectly good in that role but I expect him to be average or very close to average in more aspects of the game in 2024. He is already signed, it's not like Brown and Crane can just let him walk. Besides there really isn't anyone better. He isn't worth nearly $20M but he is worth just playing out the contract and letting him do what he is able to since he isn't blocking someone like Maldy is.
Why wont Dusty go with this lineup? He needs to do this because the pitching isn't as strong as it was last year.
Abreu was hurt in August with back issues. They finally put him on the 10 day DL and got him a steroid injection and he has responded well. So it is kind of isn't fair to group his August with his September. Since Abreu has come off the DL he is hitting 240 with a 340 OBP and 6 homers and 26 RBI in 79 at bats with an OPS of .834... all with an artificially low BABIP that isn't sustainable. He isn't the Astros best hitter for sure, and while his power has come roaring back, he still isn't hitting for average like he normally does..... but he hasn't been trash since he got his injection. As for strikeouts - he is always going to strike out some - but his strikeouts this season have slowed down... even with 3 K's a couple days ago, he only has 13 strikeouts in his last 21 games.
Trading Abreu this offseason is a possibility. But they really need to focus on finding another Ace or near Ace this offseason. Sonny Gray is a guy I would try to bring in, in FA.
If Abreu is at DH, do you bench Brantley or Alvarez? I'm not sure Abreu is a much better hitter vs LHPs than Meyers and Dubon (i.e., Alvarez should DH vs LHPs), and I'm not sure Abreu is a better hitter than Brantley vs RHPs. Simple solution is limiting Maldy, but that is an artificial construct that the Astros have not been willing to break down.
It does seem everyone underestimates Alvarez's defense esp his arm and some of his issues in routes and knowing where to throw can be fixed with more reps... Brantley though... his speed seems nonexistent.
