Yes, this is the main issue and even those relievers aren't shutdown IMO. Need another bullpen arm or two. Same **** different year. I'm not that mad at the L last night but having a shitty bullpen is getting old. You can pretty much guarantee they will give up 3+ runs if they have to pitch more than 2-3 innings in a game. Just frustrating considering it has been like this for several years. Can you imagine how much better we would be if we ever had a somewhat reliable, consistent bullpen? Easier said than done apparently.
I agree with the overall principle of this post. Though, I'd include Taylor as reliable as Stanek and Raley, and it is Dusty's job to manage workload. Dusty did decide to unload his entire bullpen the day before (pulled Odorizzi early, Javier wasn't trusted and was pulled for Raley, Raley wasn't trusted and was pulled for Stanek, Pressly pitched the bottom of a tied 9th).
Probably…. But he did go to Raley before Taylor on Sunday, thus I put him ahead in the pecking order. Taylor should probably warrant more high leverage opportunities despite some tough luck innings. Last night, would have possibly thrown Bielak earlier, then Scrubb, then Taylor maybe being the guy to get the game to extras (or close if they had the lead). The reality is, regardless of the order of those pitchers, the end result probably the same. The bullpen needs an infusion which hopefully will happen as some of these rehab assignments get completed. Also Javier needs to go back to starting or needs consistent/scheduled work… he was awful on Sunday.
Compared to the rest league or I guess other contenders, is the bullpen actually below average or just at the average?
I'm not too concerned with the decisions Baker made on Monday. Trying to get a 2nd inning out of the long reliever is a typical thing except for it being the 9th. I would have probably done your suggested order with status of the pen. I'm more concerned with how quickly he can go through his bullpen. Any one decision isn't horrible, and would be great with a deeper bullpen. With a shallow bullpen, it is very tough on the high leverage guys to be as aggressive as Dusty has been.
League adjusted ERA is dead average. Looking at win probability added, Astros are third from the last mostly due to May results. In other words, Astros give up as many runs while pen is in the game as an average team, but tend to be giving up runs more frequently when it matters. Some of it is probably bad luck (e.g., Taylor giving up run on a sacrifice bunt in extra innings without a walk or a hit). I'd guess some of it is on how the Astros use the guys they have. Astros bullpen has been great in June except for Paredes and Bielak.
You go to Raley and pray he gives up only 2 runs. I don't call them the Russian Roulette bullpen just for kicks. I live by it. I know very well that anyone not named Pressly can cause severe damage on any given night. You spun the revolver with Bielak and it didn't fire. Be grateful. No need to pull the trigger twice in a row. It only increases the chances of it firing.
Baker will probably tell you that Javier not able to go 2 full innings puts a wrench in everything based on how this bullpen is currently made up. Looking at his outings over the last two months, there has been a regression in either how long he’s been used for or his overall effectiveness (which sometimes goes hand in hand). Granted, with the starters pitching deeper into games consistently, the need for having a 3-4 inning performance out of him has gone down… but he’s too reliable of an arm to be relegated to either inconsistent work or somehow be subjected to a quick hook at expense of burning the rest of the bullpen in rapid fire sequence. They need to keep his arm relatively stretched out. His stuff is still elite.. but I also don’t necessarily see him going “max effort” in these bullpen relief innings. He could conceivably still be a starter, and have similar effectiveness for 5, vs. what he’s doing now.
Then Bielak needs to not be on the roster if he can’t be used for multiple innings (especially after having an effective first inning).
It's simple, this team wins when it's starters are effective and go DEEP into the game. For 11 games straight, that happened. When it doesn't happen, games are lost. We just don't have the bullpen to shorten games (a la Lidge, Dotel, Wagner, or more recently Harris, Pressly, Osuna).
Are we really in a position to be not playing guys that can give us a solid one inning of relief? doesn't feel like it.
It was Baker's decision to pull Javier. I don't think that is a big deal by itself, but after having burned Odorizzi and Javier, he decides to burn Raley early and then have Pressly pitch the bottom of the 9th without the lead. Baker should know his bullpen has 5 pitchers, and at some point he's going to have to let someone pitch longer than he would like. He let himself be backed into a corner such that the person doing it was Bielak. Granted, this is going to cause some leads to be lost earlier. I tend to think the Astros are going to have a lot of high leverage innings in the future, and the worst thing Dusty can do with the bullpen is overuse Pressly. I would not use Pressly in a tie away or at home behind (edit: unless Dusty intends Pressly to go more than an inning).
I never understood the thought that since we're playing 20 consecutive games then that is the best time for a 6 man rotation. It's the bullpen that can get taxed when playing 20 straight games so seems to reason you'd want an extra bullpen arm or two. The starters going long into these games and the offense putting up lots of crooked numbers helped mask this deficiency during this stretch.
Seems to me its about getting the necessary innings pitched. If a 6 man rotation allows starters to go longer, then that eats innings and that is what we need. But its true a 5 man with an additional reliver might eat the same number of innings. Perhaps more, perhaps less. That is one of the dynamics Baker has to navigate. And I am guessing that for the most part, he has to try a thing to know if its going to work or not.
It is both the bullpen and the starters. The starters getting 4 days rest typically includes 5 days rest every now and then. The 40-man roster is mess right now. The way Dusty is managing and the current 40-man roster are not a good match. For the most part, the starters look like the extra day of rest has helped.
Pretty simply, we just don't have enough good arms and either the starters or the bullpen will be taxed more than they should until the situation changes. I think you and I said more or less the same thing regarding bullpen/starter balance.
Do you have any extra concern regarding how they’re using Javier and how it could be impacting some of his consistency? Hopefully Sunday was just a one-off… but we do know he has an issue with control early in counts. On Sunday he also had control issues late in counts. Definitely not an ideal combo.
