So could we pitch Wandy everyday for the rest of the month and rest him for the remainder of the season?
wow. god bless you guys. my life probably would be a lot more enjoyable if i could be the eternal optimist like you guys, assuming things like wandy rodriguez turning the corner because he didnt get shelled his first 2 starts of the season, or brad ausmus learning to hit after 13 years in the league because 3 weeks into a season he's batting .350.
i'm not assuming he's turned a corner. i'm just saying he pitched two really good starts so far. he did the same last April, so it didn't take eternal optimism. it just took something more than the "woe is me" song we hear so much of here about the 'stros.
However, in What The Odds Are , the value of this strategy is revealed. A runner on second scores 61.9% of the time with no outs, and 69.3% of the time from third with one out. There is not much difference in the probability of scoring. So, save the out and hit away. Furthermore, a runner on first base with no outs will score 396 times in 1,000 or 39.6% of the time. A runner will score from second base with one out after a good sacrifice bunt 390 times in 1,000 or 39% of the time. Statistically, do not waste an out on a sacrifice bunt. Let the batters hit unless they are sure outs. However, the chances of scoring a run do change when runners are on first and second. A run scores 60.5% of the time when runners are on first and second with no outs. More importantly, a run scores 73% of the time with runners on second and third with one out. Hence, bunt runners to second and third with no outs. http://www.naysi.com/kidbits/KB01.htm
These odds are well and good, and they are something to consider. But you certainly have to take into account who's coming up to bat when you're talking about bunting guys over. Should Wandy swing away with a man on 1st and no one out? Probably not...cause he'll probably K or GIDP...may as well bunt the guy over if possible. etc.
I haven't seen the replay, but I was right behind the Stros bullpen & Loretta was slowing up heading in to 3rd right about the same time Borchard was gloving the ball...if he's running all out, he's rounded 3rd and there's a play at the plate. Borchard's got a gun though. But... "Then when he sees him bobble the ball, Manso tries to bring him on, and Lo wasn't looking at him at the time." This is why kids are taught from the age of 5: Don't watch the ball, watch the base coach.
This, of course, assumes 100% success rate on the bunt. What percent of bunts are actually successful and don't result in (1) a strikeout, (2) the lead runner being out, or (3) a double play? Especially when they are being performed by Carlos Lee?
Regardless of the situation, regardless of who was batting, regardless of who was managing, the strategy employed to let Carlos Lee swing away - WORKED! He advanced both runners without making an out. How anyone can complain about that boggles my mind.
NJ, that may be the most exciting first AB I've seen in person. Perfect relay by Loretta. Bad read by Burke, get away from the damn wall. Of course, then they have a guy on 2nd & no outs, who knows how the first inning plays out? Burke may not have the instincts to be a regular CFer.
Totally agree.....the dive he made on Olivos ball that scored a run was horrible. He took a terrbile angle to the ball....it ws borderline little league.
First time I've been able to watch him up close. He did funky things on a couple of routing balls, too. He needed to know he wasn't going to catch that Olivo ball either, just get back & cut it off on the bounce before it goes to the wall.
Oh, and Bruntlett has been playing some CF in RR. Pence has started to swing the bat well. Mike Rodriguez can play some center. Brian Moehler has pitched 1 inning. Something to watch.
First one of the season: and the lines are drawn! May the pessimist/optimist wars (I like to called them the PO'd wars) of 2007 begin!
I saw it live and the replay and wondered why he wasn't farther down the line. Where'd you get the quote, though?
There is a AVG/OBP/SLG threshold--players who exceed the threshold would be better off not bunting. I can't recall what it was (though it was surprising low, like .230/.330/.400. Though, if you're playing for one run, all the standards can go out the window.
