Trump got his ear pierced by a fellow republican, had his convention, picked his VP, and basically got zero bump in the polls…his biggest bump only came post-debate because of how bad Biden looked I remember all the “Trump’s now won the election” rhetoric after he got his ear pierced and had that picture of his fist in the air with Secret Service surrounding him…fast forward 2 weeks later, and nobody gives a sh*t about any of that anymore Trump is at his ceiling when it comes to polling…Kamala has already closed the Trump-Biden gap, and it hasn’t even been a week…she hasn’t even picked her VP or had the Dem convention yet…and Lord have mercy if they ever had a debate, because that would be a public flogging the likes of which we have never seen since people still love polls so much
The polls have had it mostly a tossup between Trump and Biden or now Harris. Even the recent polls showing Harris ahead of Trump were within the margin of error. I suspect, but do not know for certain, that there are R women who publicly say that they are voting for Trump but privately will not due to Roe being overturned (and Trump taking full credit). Will it be enough to matter? :shrug: ... BUT ... Kansas and Ohio had Abortion Ballot Initiatives that did not go the pro-life way, that the polls suggested. The 20222 Red Wave Tsunami failed to materialize, despite what the poll suggested. Polling in 2016 did not capture the Trump vote. Similarly, polling in 2024 might not capture the Anti-Trump vote. We will see.
I am not taking anything for granted. Trump has as much as chance to win this as he did a week ago as he did 4 years ago. Politically we are quite predictably unpredictable.
Well - women hate Trump more now than they did in 2016 - and it did work in 2020. The selection of Vance isn't going to help him with women either. Ultimately it may not matter - Trump should be the favorite. I will be curious to see how all of this plays out, right now there are strong tones of misogyny and supposedly Republican power brokers are trying to tone it down. Even that is a double edged sword though, because not only does that in theory motivate women to vote for Harris - but it also can lead to a lot of a political incels or "bros" to come out and vote for Trump.
GOP donors disliked Vance because he was strong on immigration. Trump talked strong but when in power basically did nothing. I think this is pushback on Vance from donors.
Internet warns JD Vance after video of him implying that Kamala Harris is childless cat lady resurfaces for JD Vance's education , WaPo published this article on George Washington, In an undelivered draft of his first inaugural address, George Washington wrote that his lack of biological children would benefit the country. “Divine Providence hath not seen fit, that my blood should be transmitted or my name perpetuated by the endearing, though sometimes seducing channel of immediate offspring,” the first U.S. president had considered including in the April 30, 1789, speech. “I have no child for whom I could wish to make a provision — no family to build in greatness upon my Country’s ruins.” Like Harris, whose stepchildren Ella and Cole refer to her as “Momala,” Washington was a stepparent to two children, Patsy and Jacky, from his marriage to Martha Custis. Washington had an active role in their lives, as well as those of his grandchildren Former presidents James Madison‚ James Buchanan, James K. Polk and Andrew Jackson also did not have biological offspring.
Harris is certainly more polarizing that Biden - the problem is that the 2024 Biden isn't the 2020 Biden ... so it is all relative. There are going to be ebbs and flows. Trump has to be feeling fairly confident - but this is a lot like 2016 in that outcome odds are not always as obvious as we think. Most models right now give Harris a 33% chance of winning - which is obviously not as good at the 66% chance Trump has, but it isn't statistically insignificant either. That is similar to the odds that Trump had in 2016 when everyone acted shocked. A 1:3 chance is more than a punchers chance.
I agree with some of this. I was team Haley from the start. I am not sure Kamala becomes more popular but she absolutely could. Trump needs be very precise with his campaign design now but it is likely that won't happen because he goes off on tangents way too much. A debate would favor the former liberal senator but her far left ideas might not capture moderates. I expect she will call conservatives dumb (like many here do) and fire up that base.
Vance is Thiel's guy. Notice another Thiel stooge suddenly supporting Trump and calling out "antisemites" when he was anti-Israel only months ago on his play thing X?
Kamala asking for donations back then probably yielded $0 so they may be right. She was wildly unpopular before last week.
Elon desperately wants to hire H1B and DREAMers for slave labor at his sweatshop style companies. 100% chance he is just trying to use political influence to get Trump to open up SpaceX ability to do that. "You graduate from a college, I think you should get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges too," Trump said on the All-In podcast hosted by tech investors.
