"Remember When a Democratic Polling Firm Fired the Guy Who Thought Violent Protests Could Backfire Politically?" https://reason.com/2020/08/27/protests-violence-david-shor-kenosha-biden-trump/ excerpt: Back in June, the sudden firing of data scientist David Shor from the progressive consulting firm Civis Analytics raised eyebrows. Shor had publicized research from the social scientist Omar Wasow showing that violent protests tend to backfire on progressive goals—tipping the 1968 election in favor of the law-and-order candidate, Richard Nixon, for instance—whereas peaceful protests often succeed. In response, Shor was widely derided by the left. On Twitter, the progressive activist Ari Trujillo Wesler accused him of using his "anxiety and 'intellect' as a vehicle for anti-blackness." Employees and clients of Civis Analytics said Shor's statement—which, to be clear, was merely an endorsement of well-grounded social science research that says nonviolent protest is strategically superior—had threatened their very safety, according to New York magazine's Jonathan Chait. As a result, Shor was terminated. The exact reason for the firing was never specified, but it spoke to concerns among many liberal thinkers—Chait, Vox's Matt Yglesias, and others—that certain sects of the left are unwilling to have difficult conversations about tactics. This is a concern shared by many libertarians, and supporters of free speech culture more broadly. On Wednesday, polling by Marquette Law School showed that support for Black Lives Matter has plummeted among white Wisconsinites. (The poll was conducted before the recent police shooting in Kenosha, and thus does not reflect attitudes toward that event.) "A substantial majority approved of protests in June, but this fell to an even split, 48-48 in August," wrote polling director Charles Franklin. Black and Hispanic attitudes toward Black Lives Matter changed little over the summer, but white approval had fallen and "become net negative." A related piece in Politico surveyed residents of Kenosha—where peaceful protests but also violence, rioting, fires, and looting have consumed the streets at night—and perhaps unsurprisingly discovered plenty of wariness, even among people who are not exactly the law-and-order type: "There's no doubt it's playing into Trump's hands," said Paul Soglin, who served as mayor of Madison, on and off, for more than two decades. "There's a significant number of undecided voters who are not ideological, and they can move very easily from Republican to the Democratic column and back again.They are, in effect, the people who decide elections. And they are very distraught about both the horrendous carnage created by police officers in murdering African Americans, and … for the safety of their communities." … Billy Stevens, an African American man who was helping paint the murals, agreed that the violence and destruction on display in the city give Trump more to point to in his reelection campaign. "He tries to paint a picture of Democratic leaders being weak. Personally, I think it's divisive in times like these," Stevens said. At the same time, Stevens said Kenosha is desperate for order. "Now we're sending in more troops for a large show of force immediately. I do think it's needed right now." .. Soglin said he's concerned some Democrats aren't paying close enough attention to the business owners and residents in communities coming under attack who want protection. The situation is likely having the biggest effect on swing voters, he said. John "Sly" Sylvester, a longtime Democrat and radio personality who has been active in the labor movement, said he feared Democrats have a "blind spot" to rioters and looters. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's lead in Minnesota—whose governor has dispatched the National Guard to quell continuing protest-related violence in Minneapolis—continues to shrink. He was up more than 10 points on July 1, but his lead is now just five points, according to the latest polls. more at the link
Related: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...hurt-biden-the-two-dont-appear-linked-so-far/ Could A Backlash Against Black Lives Matter Hurt Biden? The Two Don’t Appear Linked So Far. More at the link above
I don't think it will be a backlash against Black Lives Matter per se. I think there is a broader perception of the rioters, arsonists, and looters as simply opportunistic thugs who have little to do with the political motivations of BLM. But I believe there will be a backlash against those "protesters" if these cities don't figure out how to stop the violence.
I agree...I can see that. Honestly, this is where Biden or a representative of his campaign (Kamala), needs to go meet with the protesters in each of the cities and start working on potential solutions to get them to calm down and off the streets. It would be an interesting show of leadership, definitely not a traditional move by a challenger, but it would also offer a stark contrast to Trump's authoritative tactics that don't seem to be working. If it succeeds, it would show a lot of fence-sitters that he's got the leadership chops that the current president does not have.
I saw that Biden offered to go to Kenosha today if it could be done safely. I don't know how much benefit that would bring, to him or to Kenosha. I suspect it would backfire pretty quickly by appearing to make political points out of a tragedy. There's no good answer here.
plus, who the hell would he meet with? these protests really aren't "organized," they truly are mayhem. I don't think it would accomplish much
I'm sure Trump will use this to incite how he will do better. The reality is that this is happening with him as President. Sure, all these damn looters and rioters piss me off. They are just criminals who aren't smart enough to react in a constructive manner. All they do is act out with violence. This isn't what Democrats stand for. Who knows if those people even vote. I just think it is because of Trump, his complete denial or blind eye to the truth, and his white suburbs housewife racist propaganda that is making things worse. I believe things will be better when he is gone. It will be the best New Year chant ever if he loses. Happy New Year, the con is gone. I started reading a book, called The Book of Joy about two of the great spiritual leaders of our time, and no, Trump wasn't one of them. It is about Desmund Tutu and the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso. Anyway, something the Dali Lama said makes me think about why I would choose Biden over Trump. (Well, one of many reasons, but the main reason). The Dali Lama was speaking about achieving personal happiness by helping others and making friends when he said, "How do we create more friends? Trust. How do you develop trust? It's simple: You show your genuine sense of concern for their well-being. Then trust will come. But if behind an artificial smile, or a big banquet, is a self-centered attitude deep inside you, then there will never be trust. I bring this up because I don't trust Trump for that exact reason. I feel that everything he has done in his life has been self-centered, and it has gotten so much worse since he got the power. It's all about his greatness and his ratings, yet a tear isn't shed for the suffering, sick, dying, or poor. I simply will never trust him. You know what? I didn't vote for Obama. But, all it took was one moment for him to win me over. It was after the Sandy Hook shooting. He poured his heart out, wiping a tear as he spoke about those poor innocent children. He was devastated, and showed the compassion and heart of a man that cared about people. I cried that day when he spoke. I felt his pain, with every word he spoke. I don't see that compassion or care from Trump. I see the opposite. I see shouts of blame towards party lines, with name calling. I don't see tears, words of compassion for the sick, dying, and dead. I feel nothing positive or caring when he speaks. It all feels so fake and mean. Blaming, shouting, tweeting away, and stirring up more unrest. I didn't watch either Convention, but I did watch the 20/20 special with Biden and Harris. For the second time in my life, a politician made me teary eyed. I felt they cared. I certainly trust they will do their best for our people, our health, and our environment. That gave me hope, and filled my eyes with tears of joy. I trust in them to do all they can to get us get back to where we need to be as a better country.
I was thinking about that after I posted...my guess is meet with the BLM protesters...get a statement out there saying that BLM has nothing to do with the current looting and riots and that all violence needs to stop as they are working towards solving issues. I did see Biden put out a statement yesterday condemning the looting...good start on his part.
I just ran across this item--seems there is a dropping in the level of support in Wisconsin at least. not sure if this constitutes a 'backlash' but clearly people are getting tired of the protests: https://rpubs.com/PollsAndVotes/652966 excerpt: Approval of protests In June approval of protests was widespread, with 61 percent approving of the protests and 36 percent disapproving. Approval declined in August with 48 percent approving and 48 percent disapproving. Approval remained strong among Black or Hispanic respondents and in the City of Milwaukee, but declined among white respondents and in the four media-market regions of the state outside the city of Milwaukee. Approval also declined in each of five urban-suburban categories including cities, suburbs, exurbs, small towns and rural areas. In August more respondents approved than disapproved in cities. Suburban areas, which were substantially net positive in June, became net negative on approval in August, though not as negative as exurban, small towns or rural areas. Net approval also declined across all three categories of party identification, with the largest declines among Republicans. Favorable and unfavorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement Overall more Wisconsin respondents have a favorable rather than unfavorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement. In June 59 percent were favorable and 27 percent were unfavorable. In August favorable views declined though a plurality held favorable views, 49 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable. Black or Hispanic respondents maintained a strongly favorable view while white respondents views became much less favorable, with 47 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable in August. Net favorability declined in all media markets of the state except for the city of Milwaukee. Net favorability slightly increased in principal cities, but declined in suburbs, exurbs, small towns and rural areas. Favorability declined in all partisan groups, though substantially with Republicans and modestly with Democrats. quite a bit more on that site
Good stuff...will be interesting to watch going forward to see if this has an effect. Trump and the GOP seem to be all in on the Law and Order mantra, but he, personally, hasn't gained any approval over his handling. However, I'd be interested to see if it helps the GOP (not just Trump) in the long term. I could see where people are fed up with Trump, but decide they want their Representative or Senator to be a GOPer who backs Law and Order.
If you watch FoxNews you might have had initial general support for BLM coming out of George Floyd's death, but there's just no way that you can sustain that support if you watch Fox or consume right wing media consistently. The campaign on the right to dampen support for the movement was pretty intense, and definitely is turbo charged now. Why is that? I really don't know, but i assume it's pure politics to use fear tactics with white voters in November. So it shouldn't be shocking when support for BLM in the end is the exact same as Trump's approval rating. I mean look at the issue of climate change policy and approval of climate policy that is designed to create jobs. When THAT issue is polarized to the same degree as everything else it tells you everything you need to know. Who doesn't want a clean earth and new US jobs??.... Well if you watch FoxNews, not you. In 2020 with the power of propaganda, pretty much every issue is going to be leveled out at that 45% to 48% split, with about 7% of people who just claim ignorance.
Something I'll predict here: Joe Biden could have one of the broadest administrations policy wise. He could put in place rapid Covid testing and bring the cases down to a manageable level with unemployment going back down to less than 4%. He could pass a major Green Jobs infrastructure bill with wide support. He could pass a bill to add a public option to the ACA. He could nominate a solid SCOTUS judge to replace RGB. etc. etc. And Joe Biden is likely to still have one of the lowest approval ratings in modern history because of the power of FoxNews & the right wing media infrastructure & the progressive movement. I think he's someone that will get hit by both sides if president, and that'll really make him poll poorly. And maybe that's okay, but I think expectations probably need to be set that if he wins, he'll have one of the toughest presidencies imaginable with maybe the least amount of public support that any president has received. Good luck Joe.
That may actually be a good thing...it would be better for the president to have low expectations and then actually accomplish things rather than the other way round. If Biden can get a handle on COVID in the states, if he can get the economy kick-started again (an infrastructure bill is much needed, extremely popular, and would create jobs...really surprised Trump didn't push for it considering it was something he was pushing back in 2016-17), if he can get a handle on ACA, and if he can push forward policies that both the police and BLM protesters can agree on, he'd probably be considered a good president by 2024. However, that's a lot of ifs and he's inheriting a mess if he wins.
Respectfully disagree completely. Trump has the most robust propaganda network that has one mission statement which is to promote Trump and the right wing agenda. That holds his approval much higher than a fractured left or right would have without that unified effort. Then you add that there just isn’t a FoxNews for the left, and it’s just much more challenging going into a potential administration where the party will inevitably split into two. Trump lost some Republicans but nothing really from the primary voters that watch Fox and consume right wing propaganda. Trump consistently holds a 41 to 43% rating. I would bet that Biden’s ratings will be more like 38%. The majority of progressives are itching to be their own party of sorts and I think you’ll see a fracture in the party at least early in his admin. Come election night in 24, I think the party likely would come together if there’s a threat of a Trump resurgence campaign but I definitely see an effort to split off a clear differentiated party.
Ray, now here's a theory you might like (or at least be interested to see): https://althouse.blogspot.com/2020/08/do-protestersrioters-care-about-whether.html August 28, 2020 Do the protesters/rioters care about whether they're hurting Joe Biden's chances of getting elected? That's a question I've been contemplating, and I think the answer is clearly no. Why would they care about helping Biden? I'm only a distant observer — though I am in Wisconsin — and I think they're irrational so it's particularly hard to work out what might be in their head, but I really don't see why helping Joe Biden would be on their agenda. I don't see how, believing in systemic racism and the deeply engrained evil of America, they can think Joe Biden will further their cause, and there's a big risk that his election would deflate the energy. But if Trump wins, what a wild infusion of new energy! Meanwhile, a new Trafalgar poll has Trump up by 2 in Michigan. And the betting odds graph looks like this: Posted by Ann Althouse at 10:26 AM
I agree with her that the protesters may not care about whether or not Biden is elected, although, they all have differing reasons. We know some live for chaos, some are the "Boogaloo" boys, some are extreme far-leftists that aren't in Biden's camp...others may just really want new stereos and tvs and have no intention to vote. It's why I think Biden (and Trump really....someone in a leadership position), or a rep, should meet with the Black Lives Matter leaders and try to broker peace at least on that front. Then, come out and condemn, as opportunists, the rest of the groups that aren't with BLM. It would be a politically saavy move if it's pulled of correctly and can show how you are interested in the racial disparity issues, but not on the same side as the looters and opportunists. As far as the Trafalgar poll she mentioned, that's a 3 point shift towards Trump since the end of June...Could mean something, but then again, Trafalgar isn't one of the better pollsters (C- according to 538). However, I don't want to dismiss it outright...could end up portending a coming shift.
