Where are you Longhorn? I'm just past I-10 and Uvalde towards the Beltway. Where is I-10 shut down? Pugs
I gotta be honest. The latest model runs of the GFDL are downright scary. They put Dean in the Gulf near the Texas/Louisiana border in six days as a category 5 storm with peak winds of 185mph. If it were to make landfall under those conditions, it would make it the most powerful hurricane ever to intersect the US coastline. We're talking about the power to literally wipe a small coastal city off the map. That would be storm surges of 25-35 feet with winds gusting to 200mph. That's like a major typhoon. I still think the GFDL is overestimating the significance of the trough of low pressure that it has pulling Dean northward, but it underscores just how dangerous these storms can be. Stay tuned...
No offense, Jeff, but this post is straight out of the Dr. Neil Frank textbook for weather reporting.
If it does, I'm leaving here for good. Rita was enough for me. I had a job offer near Seattle. At least there all I have to worry about are volcano eruptions.
I-10 and Federal. A co-worker of mine left and is stuck in going nowhere traffic going west, but east seems to be clear up to the beltway now. Washburn tunnel is still closed and I wanna go home@
Actually, it's not. The 12z run still has it hitting the Yucatan and emerging as a smaller storm then aiming at the southern coast of Texas between Brownsville and Corpus as a cat 2-3 storm. It angles more northward that the GFS or NOGAPS, but it does weaken the storm and doesn't aim it for Houston/Galveston. The GFDL shows Dean entering the northern Gulf un-inhibited by land and at cat 5 strength. I don't believe that will happen, mind you. It's just not a pretty thought.
Where are you getting these models from? Are they accessable by the regular public, are they online? Also, isn't true that the stronger a hurricane is the more likely it will turn northwards because of its tendency to go towards the north pole? If so then if Dean becomes a Cat. 5 at some point, then it is possible for it to make a more north-wards turn. Last thing, the satellite image from Dean right now looks really pretty and scary !
Looking at the models, the NOGAPS and GFDL have literally flip flopped since yesterday with the NOGAPS now the furthest south and the GFDL the furthest north. The GFS continues to be consistent and the UKMET, despite a turn to the north-northwest late in the forecast period is about the same. The HWRF has Dean just skirting the northern edge of the Yucatan with a central pressure of, get this, 888mb. That would tie it with Gilbert for the lowest central pressure ever recorded in a hurricane. It has top level winds of 160mph. The GFDL has it at 913mb and 170mph winds as it nears the Texas/Louisiana border. Those are some frickin' scary numbers.
It's tough to get current model runs on sites like Wunderground because they are a little late to the party. It takes time to generate graphics. This one updates a bit faster... http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pa...5022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL Other than that, you have to look at the individual model animation here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Wow!!! Those numbers are scary! BTW, the lowest pressure ever recorded in a Hurricane was 882 mb in Wilma. I'm sure you knew that already... But even at 913, it'll be one of the strongest atlantic hurricanes ever (i.e. Ivan was down to 910 at its peak).
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad A more northern shift.
There are four primary global models used - GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS and UKMET - along with one new model - HWRF - that will replace the GFDL next year. Their accuracy can change from season to season. Some years, one is a little better at handling the weather changes than the next year. Generally, all four dynamic models are considered very good with possibly the GFS and GFDL nudging out the others. You will also see the LBAR, BAMM, CMC and others listed. Most of these have narrower parameters and are considered less accurate although the CMC (Canadian) is not far behind the main 4. The most accurate predictor of track path? The NHC. Historically, the track forecast of the NHC has been more accurate at predicting storm movement than any other single dynamic model. This is largely due to the fact that they are able to weigh all the models along with their own internal data to come up with a consensus. The 11pm update tonight and the 5am update in the morning will be really interesting since they are sending the hurricane jet out for the first time tonight. They got great data back from their mission today, which was a "synoptic surveillance" flight aimed to measure the outside of the storm rather than the eye, but tonights actual hurricane hunter will bring back the mother lode of data that will drive model forecasting starting with the 00z run tonight.
Just a hair. The NHC is right now trying to find a happy medium between the further most outliers - the NOGAPS to the south and the GFDL to the north. Margin of error right now is 300 miles at 5 days, so it's hard to know exactly at this point.
Good call on Wilma. I always get that name and Gilbert confused for some reason. I don't think there's any way it reaches 172mph winds. That seems AWFULLY high and higher than any of the other models predicts with or without land. Still, it's nasty.
