I still think it's one the best beaches within 2.5 hrs from Houston. Of course the further South you go, the better, but Magnolia Beach is 10x better than Galveston. Too bad it's getting more crowded.
Don't forget that Port Lavaca has that beach right by the cause way, not to bad. Formosa paid some money to help develop it.
for sure. but jeff i wanted to ask you, if houston is directly hit by a cat 2 or 3, how far inland would there be significant damage?
Alicia was a small cat 3 storm and it knocked down trees and knocked out power clear up to Huntsville. In reality, a cat 2 or even a solid cat 3 storm is something you can stay home for as long as the following is true: 1. You and your family members are healthy and do not need any kind of special medical supervision. 2. You aren't in an evacuation zone or a flood prone area. Most people are afraid of the wind in these storms, but it is not generally the part of the storm that causes injuries or takes lives. Storm surge is the number one killer in major hurricanes and that wouldn't be an issue if you are not near the water. Flooding (drowning, electrocution, etc) is second. If you stay inside and your house is well-built, your biggest risk is from tornadoes spawned by the storm and debris that could fly around and break windows. Tornadoes are erratic and random so it isn't as if your chances are super high you'll be hit by one, but hurricanes do tend to spawn pretty strong downbursts and small tornadoes. I would feel comfortable staying in my home during a cat 3 storm and I'm in a wood frame house the Heights. If it gets above that, I'd probably leave just so I didn't have to deal with it. Plus, during Rita, we had clients who needed us to make updates on their websites for their employees, so not having power wasn't really an option.
I'm with you entirely on this. Part of that is because I have kids, for sure. But the problem is that it's weeks without power, generally. That just sucks. My wife and I have said, if there's a storm with a real chance to hit the upper texas coast and is Cat 4, we're out. just a good general rule
No major changes on the 11pm (EST) update. Because the NOGAPS is still the northern outlying model, the official track is slightly to the north of the last one, but still aiming at north central Yucatan. The latest GFS run is essentially the same with a slight jog north right before it makes its second landfall along the Mexican Gulf coast in between Tampico and Brownsville. The intensity forecasts are getting scary. This is going to be a seriously potent hurricane before it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and IF it makes landfall there. If it doesn't and it manages to get through the straight, we could be looking at a very significant category 4 storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the models are still in excellent agreement right now with a landfall on Yucatan. NOGAPS has struggled to deal with the trough of low pressure near the Bahamas since the beginning. Since the NHC only bumped the track very slightly to the north in this advisory, I'm guessing they are giving the other three major models the benefit of the doubt here.
If it hits where its predicted to as of now ... somewhere close to Mexico/Texas border will it have any effect on Houston?
dean's too far out for anyone to know yet. there are computer models taking it in to mexico. but those are way too far out in time to take too seriously.
If it does hit there, it likely won't effect us a lot. We'll get some rain, but no real serious conditions. Compared to Erin, which is a very broad-based storm spread out across nearly the entire Gulf, Dean is already, and will continue to be, a very tightly packed, dense storm meaning it's impact will be in a very small area. However, the smaller the storms, the more dangerous they tend to be. Katrina was an exception to this, but when you think about storms like Gilbert that effected a similar part of the Yucatan, that was a very small storm with a pinhole eye (only about 10 miles across) and it had the lowest ever recorded pressure of 888mb when it reached cat 5 status. I think Dean will remain a tightly packed storm meaning it will effect a smaller area than Katrina or Rita, but the smaller area also means likely a more dense and powerful storm near its center.
This is from KHOU Thursday Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent in the morning decreasing to 80 percent in the afternoon.
