It has been above 100 for the past 2 weeks but that is supposed to end as early as Friday. When I hopped in my car going home from work yesterday the temperature gauge read 110 and the one at the bank read 108. It has been HOT here for a while and I hate it. I am ready for fall and winter.
Judging by some of the latest model runs just posted that the NHC is going to revise its track forecast for Dean further to the south and west in the next update. The GFS finally seems to be coming into agreement with the forward speed of the other models and has Dean striking the central Yucatan peninsula in about six days. The GFDL now has Dean onshore in Honduras in five days and a couple of the other models are starting to trend southward as well. Most of the models seem to have overestimated the pull of a low pressure area to Dean's north. Now, we'll have to see if the next trough forecast to be in the eastern US late this weekend will have any influence pulling Dean on a more northwesterly track.
Where do you see this latest run? I always go to wunderground, but they still have the 2:00 a.m. model run where the GFS has the it grazing the tip of the Yucatan.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml This one actually has it going straight through the Yucatan, emerging on the other site and hitting Mexico as a significantly weakened hurricane.
You can also see some of the animations here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ They aren't quite as quick to update as the NHC one's and they don't run as far out in time.
The 5pm (EST) update is out from the NHC. They are now pushing Dean to a cat 4 storm by day 5 and locating it at that time not far off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Both the GFS and the UKMET models bring Dean across the central part of the Yucatan and into the Gulf. The GFS has Dean WELL into the Gulf by day 5 and the NHC thinks that is too fast. I tend to agree since the GFS has moved this storm along much more quickly the entire time. The GFDL, one of the 2 other reliable models, has its track slower and to the south of both the GFS and UKMET. The GFDL has been doing a pretty good job with the storm speed and the NHC favors them in that regard. Three of the four most reliable models are all pointing towards a Yucatan landfall before the storm re-intensifies in the Gulf. The other model (NOGAPS) hasn't posted a run for today and still has a northward turn into Dominica. The only other model really worth noting is the HWRF. The NHC has been experimenting with this one and it is slated to take the place of the GFDL in the next year or two. Right now, it is much slower than the other models and just a bit to the north of the consensus. Five days out is as far as can reasonably be speculated when it comes to forecast track. I think it's reasonable to assume at this point that landfall between Belize and the Yucatan channel between Cuba and Mexico is probable. All of the models will run tonight and we should get a clearer picture of track in the morning. By Saturday, I think we'll really begin to know what area of the Gulf Dean will enter first. After that point, all bets are off. Both the GFS and UKMET have been consistent in their last couple of runs putting the storm near the Texas/Mexico border or just south of there within 8 or 9 days. The GFDL would seem to be leaning that direction as well. But, it's too early to tell what will happen at that point.
NOGAPS is the Rafer Alston of hurricane models... Oh well, I've been meaning to get some bottled water for the hurricane season. I guess now is as good a time as ever, before this thing gets into the Gulf of Mexico and people start freaking out...
Exactly. Last summer, I stocked up on everything that I thought I'd need except water and gas. But, I did get four 5-gallon plastic gas containers. I'll probably fill them up just to be safe. But, at that time, I got plywood for all my windows and even had it cut to size, all the hardware I needed to hang it, even a new drill to make it easier. I got cat carriers and portable water and food bowls for my cats. It's all just sitting collecting dust and, frankly, I hope it stays that way.
Storm blinds... Sure, you're pretty much doomed to a slow, painful death if your house catches on fire and you can't get out of your bedroom, but it makes hurricane season a helluva lot simpler...
So would I be crazy to stay a couple of nights in Galveston around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week? Looking to get some R&R with my sweetie away from the kids, but don't want to get into some lousy weather. (or worse)
I wouldn't book anything yet. That would be getting pretty close to a landfall at that point. I'm sure the surf would be damn good though. I'd wait until Saturday or Sunday to book anything on the coastline.
Looks like this storm might get pretty strong before land fall. It also looks like Cancun could get another direct hit.
Thanks, Jeff. I'll take your advice. Maybe we'll stay at a place in Houston. I'm pretty locked into a family thing that week. (bad luck and bad timing!) I'm going to need to follow the weather. Depending on the storm and where it hits, Houston can get a heck of a lot of weather as well.
Right now, landfall as a cat 4 in Mexico is definitely a possibility. This is a pretty small storm and I doubt it will grow to a significant size, but those are the types of storms that can really get nasty as that eyewall shrinks down to 20 or 30 miles across. I think it was Gilbert that struck Cancun and was similar in size and strength. If the high pressure persists as they are forecasting, it will be tough for this storm to turn north even after it reaches the Gulf, so it will mostly be gaining latitude just through little jogs and eyewall replacement cycles. That puts the central Yucatan right in the crosshairs. After that, who knows?
