The Chron is posting tracking maps on their front page now. I'm not an expert, but this chart clearly shows Cat 5 Hurricane Dean hitting Galveston, (kiss Schlitterban goodbye) going up 45 to the UH campus, tearing the roof off of Toyota Center and going up through the Woodlands. I think I'm safe where I live.
if you live in Houston/Galveston, it means it's coming from you. If you live in Brownsville, it means it's coming for you. If you live in New Orleans, it means it is coming for you. If you live in Boston, it's going to hit you.
Dean still doesn't have a reliable forecast track after day 3. None of the models seem to have a good feel for how the trough of low pressure is going to respond over the eastern US. The model runs have been bouncing all over the place from swinging it north out to sea to bringing it west across the Caribbean. They also don't seem to have the speed yet together. The GFS model has it all the way past Cuba and into the Yucatan straight in 5 the weekend. That seems WAY too fast at this point. I don't think we'll have a very good read on Dean in terms of where and if it makes landfall in the US until Thursday or Friday. I thought the models would have a little better agreement today, but the upper level weather patterns are complicated to Dean's north, so we'll just have to wait and see. IF, and that's a gigantic IF, it threatens the Texas coast, it won't be before middle to the end of next week. Historically, only two storms have ever struck the Texas coastline that formed that far out in the Atlantic, so it is EXTREMELY rare. That's a long way to travel to not get pulled north along the way. Storms WANT to move towards the pole. It's just other weather that gets in their way. Our friend in the Gulf MAY reach TS strength when it hits southern Texas late tomorrow or early Thursday, but it will mainly just spawn a bunch of much needed rain for south and southeast Texas. All of that will be gone before the weekend.
Don't worry, Hurricane Wayne already has his raincoat and is practicing his 120 mph wind stance as we speak.
Reports are saying 3-5 inches. It's a fast moving storm, so it won't be here for long, but anything would be great.
yeah, that would cool us down. my wife was planning on going with the kids and some friends to galveston tomorrow. not so much.
This seems to be becoming the pefect storm of **** for me. I'm in Orlando for work from Sunday to Thursday, and then next Thursday fly to Houston for the weekend. I can only hope this b*stard stays low or goes back out to sea.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/ AFTERNOON UPDATE: Dean remains a tropical storm this afternoon, but it has struggled to maintain convection throughout the day. Part of this is because daytime heating typically weakens a storm (while it reaches its peak strength late at night). As a result of the weakening, there's an outside change the system could simply fall apart. But it seems far more likely Dean will strengthen over night. Some models have it becoming a major hurricane within five days. Dean will continue to move west as it traces the southern boundary of a high-pressure system. If/when it turns north remains the big question, and the most recent model runs have prompted the hurricane center to delay a northward turn in its official forecast track. In regards to the low-pressure system in the Gulf, today's Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed circulation despite the system's impressive appearance on satellites. Therefore there's no depression or tropical storm, at least not yet. Maximum winds are about 25 mph. The system still has time to develop, but wind shear could increase as the system nears the south or central Texas coast. Sea surface temperatures remain exceptionally favorable for development, but this would-be T.S. Erin is running out of time. The system is likely to bring heavy rains to Houston tomorrow night and into Thursday.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5054845.html Aug. 14, 2007, 10:16PM Tropical storm watch issued for Texas coast Associated Press HARLINGEN, Texas — Texans along the coast from Freeport southward were under a tropical storm watch late Tuesday as a tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Gov. Rick Perry said he was sending emergency vehicles and personnel to South Texas in advance of the weather system that threatened to bring heavy rains to an already sodden region. "Because storms have saturated much of our state this summer, many communities in this storm's projected path are at high risk of dangerous flash flooding," Perry said in a news release hours before the tropical storm watch was issued. He said he was sending 30 vehicles and 60 Texas National Guard members to Weslaco and San Antonio, and was activating three helicopter rescue swimmer teams and putting six teams on standby. Volunteer organizations were being prepared to provide mass care support. The National Hurricane Center issued the tropical storm watch for the coast of Texas and the government of Mexico issued a watch for parts of Mexico as the fifth depression of the Atlantic hurricane season formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. At 10 p.m. CDT, it was centered about 425 miles east-southeast of Brownsville and about 425 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico. National Weather Service forecaster Tim Speece said the system could bring heavy rains as far north as Victoria and as far inland as the Hill Country. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. It was expected to turn west-northwest by late Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph. A tropical storm has winds of at least 39 mph. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Dean got a little stronger late Tuesday, but still remained far from land, forecasters said. At 10 p.m. CDT, the storm was centered about 1,295 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It had top sustained winds of 50 mph, up from 40 mph earlier in the day. Some strengthening was expected within the next day. Dean was moving over increasingly warmer waters, where atmospheric conditions could create a favorable environment for intensification into a hurricane by Friday, forecasters said. It was cruising west at about 18 mph. Forecasters said it is too early to tell where Dean will go. Hurricanes sustain winds of at least 74 mph. Hurricane forecasters expect this year's Atlantic hurricane season to be busier than average. Last week, they said up to 16 tropical storms are likely to form, with nine strengthening into hurricanes. The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but August typically marks the start of the most active period. Ten tropical storms developed in the Atlantic last year, but only two made landfall in the United States.
Our little tropical depression is pretty ragged, but it is going to bring us some rain. Damned if the thunder didn't wake me up around 4am. We'll get more today and tomorrow as it nears land and makes landfall. This won't make more than TS strength even if it manages that. TS Dean is a different story. The storm track is continuing to bend southward. The latest GFS and GFDL have the storm moving west through the Caribbean with the GFDL moving it into Central America and the GFS aiming it for extreme south Texas or northern Mexico. It's just WAY too far off to tell as the models have been moving back and forth the last few days. It is becoming apparent, however, that the trend in the track currently is more south and west than north and northwest. By this weekend, we'll have a better idea of where it is going. Dean is likely to be a major hurricane in the Caribbean, but it won't effect the coast of the US (if it does at all) until late next week unless it manages a turn north into Florida which would get it there sooner. On a side note, found a couple REALLY cool storm sites that utilize Google mapping technology to help track current storms. The one (IBISEYE.com) has historical tracking, model forecasting...pretty cool stuff. I love maps like these because I'm no geographer and it's nice to be able to see a graphical representation of where the cities are located on the coast in proximity to landfall. NHC doesn't provide that kind of detail on their maps. http://www.ibiseye.com http://www.stormpulse.com
I was just getting used to day after day of 100 degree weather, too. I was also enjoying not having to mow foot high grass, either.
I was supposed to ride my motorcycle to Austin Friday and come back Sunday. I don't think its a good idea, judging by the mess in the Gulf right now.
The rain should be over by Friday. This storm should move pretty rapidly. Dean won't be a threat to the Texas coast, if at all, before late next week.
That's one thing about hot, dry weather. It sucks in that it is so hot but I have saved some money in lawn fees.
I spoke with my father-in-law in Arkansas yesterday. There's this myth that it gets hotter in Houston than it does there. He said it was 107 degrees the other day and humidity was super-high.
