Sorry, I was referring to ima's Spoiler which asked when we'd get our first cold front. For us, hurricane season is essentially over. It is very rare for us to get a MAJOR hurricane after the 15th. We may get some tropical rainfall on Monday from a system currently moving over the Yucatan, but none of the models project that it will develop.
In case you guys were interested, 2007 has now had 14 named storms including 4 hurricanes, 2 of them of the major variety. We will likely have a 15th named storm shortly and at least one of the active storms out there (probably td 15) will become a hurricane. With just over a month of hurricane season remaining, we will most likely get 1 or 2 more named storms putting us around the 17 originally predicted earlier this year. We'll be under the predicted number of hurricanes, but relatively close to the number of major storms (3-4 were generally predicted). The single biggest problem with predictions by forecasters is the misuse of their information. When they say that it will be an "active" season, the media overhypes it and people freak out. But, when we get to October and we've only had 4 or 5 hurricanes, none of which have had the devastating effects of Katrina, everyone cries foul on the forecasters saying it wasn't so bad. The forecasters aren't the problem. The problem is how their information is interpreted by the media and the public.
Just giving a heads up on another possible storm. From today's Wunderblog by Dr. Jeff Masters: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=812&tstamp=200709 Bahamas tropical disturbance A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.
A November hurricane. That would suck. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5180827.html 2 more hurricanes forecast for October, November Associated Press FORT COLLINS, Colo. — Hurricane expert William Gray slightly downgraded his forecast today, calling for four named storms in October and November, including two hurricanes, one of them major. Gray's team at Colorado State University had predicted five named storms in their earlier forecast for the two months. "We expect October-November to be very active," said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane forecast. In April, Gray had predicted a "very active" 2007 season, with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major hurricanes. As of Oct. 1, a total of 13 named storms had developed, including four hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes were major. Gray's team revises the forecast throughout the hurricane season, which lasts from June through November. "August had somewhat above-average activity — about 130 percent of average — while September had about average activity — about 92 percent of average," Klotzbach said. Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month. But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived. Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas. In 2006, his team forecast nine hurricanes, five of them major. Instead, there were just five hurricanes, two of them major.
Every time when they say Texas is at risk, local meteorologists jump at the chance and say it is heading to Houston. The latest low pressure off Florida is NOT going to Houston, mkay?
Seriously, do these guys ever UNDER predict? Why is this prediction even newsworthy when it will probably just be downgraded in a few days anyway? It's like a guy who says a team will score 35 points, then, when the team has 17 and there's 2 minutes left in the game, he downgrades his "prediction" to 20 points.
I think we should keep an eye on a developing area of low pressure near the Bahamas. From the latest satellite loops, I can definitely notice a low pressure with the counter clock wise rotation. Latest Models predict that it'll move into the central Gulf within a few days. Should be interesting... I wish I knew how to resize and make the images larger. Sorry...
I know the season will officially end at the end of November, but let me be the first one to say farewell to the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Here are the official numbers Total Storms: 14 Toal Hurricanes: 5 Major Hurricanes: 2 Most Intense Storm: Hurricane Dean ACE: 67.0 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season So, overall this season was a slightly below average season when comparing ACE numbers. ACE Fatalities: ~350 Damages: ~$4 billion ----------------------------------------- Thanks for the momories, and numerous endless nights.
