[OFFICIAL] Hurricane Season 2007

This could be as significant a storm as Dean and will likely be Felix this weekend. Right now, only one model brings it more northerly in the Caribbean and it should stay on this track for at least four days. ALL of the models are in good agreement about that.

The good news is that this storm is south of Dean and will stay on a southerly track making a northerly turn more difficult as it nears the Central American coastline. If it were to turn more northward, historical tracks tend to cause storms to really bend and move north and even northeast. No storm formed within 300 miles of this one has ever struck the Texas or even the central Gulf Coast.

That's a good precedent, but it's early.

 

Andrew was long before Katrina (1992). Rita would technically be the hurricane that caused the most damage after Katrina. But, there hasn't been anything that significant since.

Last year was a very moderate year because of El Nino and we have not had a hurricane strike yet this year.

 

Yeah, Andrew was the worst before Katrina in terms of damage, but 2005 produced three of the worst ever - Wilma, Katrina and Rita. Rita and Wilma actually were stronger than Katrina at their relative peaks. Wilma, the most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, weakened and hit Florida as a cat 2.

 

Felix is now a category 1 hurricane. So far, all the models except one (NOGAPS) in their latest runs are in excellent agreement of a southerly track towards the eastern coast of Honduras and/or Belize. The GFS and GFDL have been very similar in their track since yesterday.

The HWRF, UKMET and NOGAPS were the outliers until the latest run when all but the NOGAPS moved south into central Yucatan. The UKMET still has a northwesterly turn, but only after a landfall along the Yucatan coast with a second landfall likely in central Mexico.

The NOGAPS only runs twice each day, so it's next run in the morning will be interesting.

The wave behind Felix is an interesting one to watch. It's further north and much further out into the Atlantic giving it plenty of time to develop. If it stays on a westerly track as projected, it could be south of Haiti in 5 days and then we'll just have to see.

 

Well, Andrew was pretty terrifying as were Gilbert and Allen.

Felix has rapidly intensified and is now a cat 3 major hurricane. It will continue to move west for the next few days and all the models are in excellent agreement.

The big change will come either right before it hits the Yucatan or right after and that is a more northwest to north-northwesterly turn. Right now, the models project a pretty substantial northwest turn with the hurricane making a second landfall along the central Mexican coastline, HOWEVER a more northerly turn towards Texas is NOT out of the question.

Granted, it would take a DRAMATIC northerly turn to get Felix into the Houston/Galveston area, but a strike in southern Texas is very possible.

The good news is that the water in the Bay of Campeche is not particularly warm right now so rapid intensification is unlikely once Felix re-emerges in the Gulf. BUT, seeing it ramp back up to a cat 3 storm is not unlikely depending on its track.

Way out in the Atlantic, 98L is struggling. Not sure if this will survive and, if it does, it appears that it will be eventually be pulled on a more northwesterly track in the Atlantic. Still could be a concern, but that's very uncertain.

There should be another depression forming off the eastern US from the remains of a frontal boundry - common this time of year. The models are also suggesting at least one, perhaps two storms emerging off the coast of Africa as early as Tuesday.

Anyone who thought this season was over might want to reconsider.

 

Felix is now a cat 4 with winds of 140mph.

This will very likely be our SECOND cat 5 storm of the year before it slams into the southern Yucatan Peninsula.

The eye of the storm is only 12 nautical miles in diameter and this is a very compact storm. The good news is that it will, as a result, only impact a small area with hurricane force winds.

After crossing the Yucatan, the track is still a bit uncertain, but the models are trending southward. The NHC remains conservative, as they should considering we are probably six days out from a second landfall in central Mexico.

 

Yeah, Felix is a bad mo fo. He's going to really do some damage to Central America, unfortunately. Then, Belize is next. Looks like Texas will stay in the clear.

Should be some more storms forming in the next 5 days well out in the Atlantic. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple fish storms or storms that threaten the east coast given where some of the model projections are forming disturbances.

For Texas, we've got about 2 weeks left of the heart of our hurricane season, then we'll see a big drop off. There are already a few small indicators of fall coming even if it is still hot as hell. Anything moving in that direction is a good thing for us for a lot of reasons.

 

No.

Felix was a tiny storm and its remnants won't make it here. We are getting Gulf rain from a upper level low.

On hurricanes, this is a historic year - first year in recorded history that two category 5 hurricanes have made landfall at that strength. Really incredible. We've now had more category 5 hurricanes in this decade (8) than in any other decade in recorded history and we still have two more seasons left. Granted, it's hard to know specifically since the invention of radar in the 60's, but nothing like this for 30 years.