Honestly, even though we are just entering the busiest part of the hurricane season, I still find these numbers to be pretty high. There is nothing forecast for the next 5 days by any reliable model meaning we'll likely reach August 15 without a named storm. That leaves, realistically, six full weeks of peak hurricane season to produce 10 hurricanes and 15 tropical storms total. Jeff Masters at Wunderground had this analysis: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=741&tstamp=200708 I think it is likely that the total number of named storms this year will be at the lower end of NOAA's range--13. This is close to what the new UKMET office forecast was calling for in June--12 named storms. Given the current SST patterns and behavior of the steering currents, at least one major hurricane affecting the Caribbean and one major hurricane hitting the U.S. is a good bet this season. That sounds more realistic. He included an interesting graphic from NOAA... The location of that high pressure area is the key to what storms will impact the US coastline. The further it is to the east, the less likely a US landfall. There is some thought that with lower wind shear coming next week, we could see something form either in the western Caribbean or in the southern Gulf. Stay tuned.
Geez, I wish the government would just STFU. I can already read the headline on November 29th. One day left in hurricane season, Category 5 storm "still a possibility"
I was thinking that exact same thing when I read that this morning. When? Just doing the math on it like you did, it seems highly unlikely we'd have anywhere approaching the numbers that they're talking about...that they had to "downcast" to get. I wonder...is this just to create a boogeyman out there to keep them alert and watching? Do they realize how this impacts commodities markets, particularly oil, when they start talking about the frequence of storms hitting the Gulf? Certainly these guys know more than I do about this stuff. No doubt. But I don't understand this analysis.
We are making up for it with earthquakes here in southern california. There was a 4.6 last night that woke me up. There was a 3.7(I think) a week or so ago. There have been other ones since I've lived out here, but those are the only two that I've actually felt. Other people have felt them, but I never have until recently.
I'm sure it's a combination of trying to keep people aware and legitimate scientific forecasting. It isn't impossible to have that many storms in that short of time. It's just unlikely. There have been times where there were three or four active hurricanes on the map at virtually the same time, but it's rare. The big concern is a false sense of security. Look, one powerful hurricane that blows up within a few hundred miles of land and makes landfall within a few days will happen again eventually. If it happens in a season where no one is really paying attention because it has been quiet all year, it could be disastrous. They know that and they want to keep people wary. PLUS, they don't write the headlines. They just pass down the data. News organizations sensationalize the information to increase reader/viewer/listener ship.
Those are all great points. Your first point is the one that concerns me though...because you and I are agreeing that the forecasts the government are giving us are "unlikely." I might go so far as to say "highly unlikely."
I'm not sure how people wouldn't be paying attention. Whenever a hurricane comes with 1,000 miles of Houston, Neil Frank is already up there trying to finagle a way it could hit us. IMO, the less said, the better. Much like the boy who cries wolf, too much concern tends to tune people out more than no info. until we really need it.
Yeah, there could be a category 1 way out in the Atlantic Ocean, and Neil Frank will have a projected path right through Houston. Don't forget about Hurricane Wayne standing in 40 MPH winds in Galveston while people walk their dogs on the beach behind him...
Wow, I felt that earthquake too. I think it was around 2 a.m. local time. I live in the heart of O.C. in Anaheim. But my personal feelings towards the slow hurricane so far: IMO, it only takes one major landfalling hurricane to cause a lot of damage, and change everyone's mind about the season. Also, I find it amuzing that the Weather Channel keeps reporting on un-important hurricanes/storms in the pacific that do not concern us at all, just to fill in their tropical update time slot. (i.e. tropical storm Flossie approaching Hawaii)
That actually happened during Rita. Some guy on 13 was saying how the rain is coming down so hard, it felt like little rocks hitting him in the face. He kept saying "ow!!" while he was talking. Meanwhile, a little kid is riding a bike across the screen right behind him.
True, however, there have been storms that blew up from nothing to a major hurricane within a couple days very near land and moved onshore. That is the biggest worry forecasters have. Imagine if a hurricane blew up in the Gulf and was onshore within 72 hours. We had enough trouble getting people out in a 5-6 day span with Rita. The concern is that it could happen that way and people wouldn't be paying attention.
Little update. Things are starting to heat up in the Atlantic. Several of the models are predicting that the latest wave emerging off of Africa will become a depression and could potentially be our first hurricane of the year. They do 300-hour model runs (12 days) twice each day. Most of them are consistent in bringing the wave across the Atlantic toward the Lesser Antillies, but, after that, every model run changes. One will have it turning north and going up the eastern seaboard while another has it going into the Gulf and hitting Mexico. Once you get 2-3 days out, guidance is completely unreliable, so we've got a while on this one. It is something that bears watching as it will begin to effect the islands well out into the the Atlantic and Caribbean within 4 or 5 days. There is a second wave that should emerge from Africa afterward that will probably develop as well. The waters in the Atlantic are warm enough to support storms, dust from the African coast is diminishing and wind shear is dropping. It's definitely time to pay attention to the tropics if you live along the coastline.
Well, over here in Hong Kong there's a typhoon called something ridiculous again, hit Taiwan slightly and I think it's died down or something, probably went away from Hong Kong. But we had pretty horrible weather, just gloomy and rainy for the past three or four days.
Yup, Flossie. You guys have had an incredibly active season. By the way, the NHC has designated the wave in the Atlantic Invest AL90. This one most definitely bears watching. It is likely that it will effect some part of the US coastline probably as a hurricane and possibly as a major hurricane. Still a good 10-14 days out, but keep an eye on it.
