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[OFFICIAL] Hurricane Season 2007

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Jeff, Jul 31, 2007.

  1. aeroman10

    aeroman10 Member

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    By the way...when was the last time a hurricane hit Houston.
    Last year doesn't really count and I am not counting tropical storms.
    Has it been 17+ years?
     
  2. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    last time a major hurricane hit was 1983. Hurricane Alicia.
     
  3. Xenon

    Xenon Member

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    Jeff, what do you think about what happened to Erin? Apparently it strengthened back into TS strength over Oklahoma! The radar a few hours ago was incredible. You could clearly see an eye and reports of gusts of up to 80mph.

    There has been catastrophic flooding in Oklahoma. Luckily it continues to move east. This is their TS Allison.
     
  4. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    Can someone tell the CLP5 to stop it, please.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Xenon

    Xenon Member

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    That is not a computer model. That is just climatology. Don't even look at it.

    Edit: Here is a page that describes many of those computer models that you see folks talking about.

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm#CLIPER
     
    #365 Xenon, Aug 19, 2007
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2007
  6. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    what does that mean?
     
  7. Xenon

    Xenon Member

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    Sorry, was a little slow on the link. Read above. It has no data entered into it for current atmospheric conditions. Basically it'll just take its current movement then bend it right as it gains latitude, like storms usually do. Of course that's not going to happen with that big fat high pressure ridge to the north of Dean...Probably. ;)
     
  8. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    ahhhh...got it. thanks!
     
  9. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    I saw that. It is incredibly fascinating. I wonder how that happens. Was there some upper level low that merged with it or something??? It's an incredible freak of nature.

    Here's a loop of it.

    [​IMG]

    You know, I wonder why they include the CLIPS on storm model tracks given that so many people in the general public now read these things.
     
  10. rockHEAD

    rockHEAD Member

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  11. WhoMikeJames

    WhoMikeJames Member

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    If Dean crosses Mexico can it power itself up again with the pacific?
     
  12. OrangeCountyCA

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  13. A-Train

    A-Train Member

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    The CLP5 is Neil Frank's personal hurricane computer model that he does at home. Basically, any data that brings it towards the Houston/Galveston area is included in it...
     
  14. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    That one little wobble nearly had it onshore. Yikes.

    Fortunately, it is nearly past Jamaica.
     
  15. VesceySux

    VesceySux World Champion Lurker
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    ROFL. I totally noticed that, too. Talk about outliers.

    "It's heading right for us!"
     
  16. thelasik

    thelasik Contributing Member

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    I really hope Dean misses Grand Cayman.
     
    #376 thelasik, Aug 19, 2007
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2007
  17. Fiah

    Fiah Member

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  18. Fatty FatBastard

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    This thing, AT BEST, has a 5% likelihood of hitting Houston.

    I'm sorry, but I don't give a crap about this. Even when everyone was freaking out about Rita, I enjoyed myself with a video game, while the rest of my boys enjoyed some empty parking garage antics.

    And, yes, we were all over the age of 30.

    To anyone who was here during Alicia, you just don't freak out about hurricanes. If your in Houston proper, you're just about at 100% to do just fine.

    Or does anyone recall the horrific deaths that occured? hmmmm... nobody? Thought so.
     
  19. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Right now, even with the ULL moving more slowly, the high pressure area is digging westward and pushing Dean along a pretty rapid clip. The ULL will get pushed by this high into Texas or northern Mexico before it has a significant chance to impact Dean and all the models are in good agreement on this.

    Even if it does exert some degree of influence on Dean, the turn to the right will be LATE in the forecast period, likely after Dean has already been across the Yucatan. At that point, the turn northward would only be a jog and still keep him in Mexico.

    I pulled the 00z model runs that incorporate the data from the last recon mission run by the NHC and they are still insistent on a southerly track. A couple of them have bent slightly to the north, but no more than 100 miles north of the official forecast, at most, keeping Dean well into the central Mexican coastline.

    Now, if that ULL had stalled on Friday or Saturday, that would've been a different story.
     
  20. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    so, are you going to say this everytime there is a hurricane .. or just for Dean.

    huhhh
     

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