IIRC, Rita was a weak three as she got to the shelf just offshore that tends to zap a storm of its energy.
We were on the clean side of the storm. I was in the Pasadena/Deer Park area and we saw maybe 50 MPH gusts with a little rain with Rita.
The latest NHC is out and now all of the models including the GFDL have shifted south into Mexico and are fairly tightly clustered around the NHC official track. Only the GFDL is north of the official track at this point which leads me to believe that the track may even shift a bit further to the south to follow the consensus. If the models hold through tomorrow morning, I think we can feel pretty safe here in Houston. As it stands, the cone of uncertainty's northern edge is just to the north of Corpus Christi.
Rita was a sizable category 3 at landfall. It blew up when it went across a deep warm water eddy to the south of Louisiana - the same eddy that caused the dramatic increase in the strength of Katrina. Fortunately, that eddy is not anywhere close to the depth or warmth this year. The Gulf is warm and certainly good for hurricanes, but the warmest and deepest warm water in the Atlantic this year is in the Western Caribbean, which is why they expect Dean to become a monster before striking the Yucatan.
looks like its gonna be a Mexico hurricane after all... gas is running out here!! maybe you guys should fill your tanks just in case! =)
Fk the cone of uncertainty. Dean, if you want a piece of me come and get me you piece of crap hurricane!
But if it just skirts below them won't they actually be getting the worst part of the storm, the NE portion? DD
Yes. Best case scenario if it has to hit within 50 miles is the north coast. The south coast is going to be hit HARD.
am I missing something? I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, but last night at one of the walmarts in Pearland, I overheard a local law enforcement official talking on his radio about "beginning to evacuate before things get crazy around here". Then today, two of my neighbors already put plywood on their windows and are gone. I know there's something to be said for being prepared.....but from everything I am reading and hearing, Houston is pretty much safe from dean.
There is always a chance that something could happen, but the model consensus is such at the moment that a move this far to the north would be surprising. I think who you saw and overheard are overreacting at the moment.
It is doubtful. Mexico actually handles disaster evacuations MUCH better than we do in the US. They've been through this as many times as we have and we've never faced evacuees from Mexico. It's really kind of pathetic that the only evacuees we have to take care of in the southern US are our own because we do such a poor job of managing the situation.
Haha. I am in Pearland too. Maybe we live in the same neighborhood because one of our neighbors here boarded up all their windows too...looks so weird but I guess they might as well keep it like that until hurricane season is over...Dean may not be coming here but there maybe more. But as far as evacuations there are non planned at this time. My brother is on PPD so if something was up I would know.
