Just looked at the 18z run for the HWRF and it is also further south cutting across more of the Yucatan than before and closing in on landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border. The 10pm NHC forecast should be interesting.
11pm advisory is out. NHC has not altered the track much at all noting in their discussion that, despite the southward shift by all the models, another swing could occur simply because the changes are late in the forecast period. If the 00z runs are similar, in particular if the GFDL shifts again, I believe the NHC guidance will change for the 4am update. The NHC is conservative in its guidance shifts preferring to not make "wiper blade" changes as Dr. Masters put it. One interesting note is that hurricane force winds extend out 60 miles from the center. That means that to get hurricane force winds (not 100 mph, but just hurricane force), the center of the eye of the storm will need to pass within 60 miles of you. That's quite different from Katrina. This is a MONSTER of a storm in terms of power. The NHC believes it will float between 4 and 5 status until it intersects the Yucatan. Jamaica is in for a direct hit and the tip of Haiti will get slammed with high winds and rain. Keep good thoughts for the folks in those nations.
Well...sitting here in Brownsville, with strained ligaments in my knee, waiting on further forecasts if I should take all the hurricane crap out of the attic...
New to the thread because I just arrived to Houston. Should I be concerned about this if I am staying in NW Houston?
leave now. this thing is way too far out to know for sure. watch the news at 10 on sunday night...that will give us a pretty good idea of what we're in for.
The dood reporting weather on Fox 26 just now said that GFDL tends to be the most accurate. is that right? I thought that was the one that someone on here called the Rafer Alston of computer models I also love the way he (and the other weather doods) talk about this storm. He sounds scary. Like Dean is right outside the studio
The only weather guy who seems somewhat reasonable is the guy on 13. I cannot STAND the hype and shock Neil Frank, Billingsley etc. put into their reports when there's a 'cane 2000 friggin' miles away. They always go with the worst case scenario. STOCK UP, EVACUATE, YOU'RE GONNA DIE IF YOU STAY!! Kind of why I've F5'd this thread like 500 times. Jeff is the man. We all owe him beers.
You might if you live in a flood prone area. Some gas stations in Clear Lake are out of gas. I would fill up asap.
Awesome. You guys enjoy his forecasts. I'll stick with NHC, Wunderground and Jeff. Our weather guys as a whole in Houston make me with their horrible forecasts and hyperbole. Umm, I root for Vince Young. This puts me in the force field of "not getting hurted." He's that strong.
Oh, I understand what you mean. I tune in to hear what they're saying...but most of the information I get on this comes from wunderground.
Since I am a human with feelings of mercy, I hope Dean makes landfall in a deserted area and causes as little loss of life as possible. However, since I am also an insurance adjuster who's almost broke since nothing happened last year, I hope he hits 5 and knocks down some small towns. Sorry, I'm greedy. And desperate.
