I'm already done. I went and picked up the last few things I needed this morning - no lines in the store or any craziness. I'll hit the ATM and fill up my spare gas cans tonight then it's just getting stuff around the house ready. I won't actually do anything drastic like boarding up until Sunday and I won't leave before Monday if I leave at all.
Dean is growing not only in strength but size. It's size looks like it has increased 1/3 in total size since yesterday. Dam I am supposed to be in Caymen, Jamaica and Cozumel in April. I hope it does not destroy the places like Wilma did too Cozumel 2 years ago.
Just for clarification, the UTC is the "Coordinated Universal Time" and the z stands for "zulu" in the model listings. We are at -6UTC or six hours prior to the UTC. So, if a model runs at 00z UTC, that means it runs at 6pm CST. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time
My wife and I honeymooned in the Riviera Maya (30 min south of Cancun) like 2 1/2 weeks ago. Sure dodged a bullet there. And I got a cousin getting married this weekend...I hope they aren't going anywhere in the Carribean.
Latest Tracking has it headed towards Mexico and Reynosa http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204026.shtml?5day?large#contents Looks promising.....but we're in for a long ride till I feel safe.
Yup, exactly. NHC is still hedging by keeping the track over the very tip of the Yucatan in deference to the GFDL and the HWRF. In fact, this basically follows the exact path of the HWRF, just quicker. If the UKMET continues to remain to the south along with the GFS and NOGAPS, my tendency is to discount the GFDL. Like you said, it will be a while until I feel safe about the situation. We'll just have to monitor it and see.
I'm really glad that I have this forum to come to for info...it saves me time from having to sort through all the drama from the news outlets. Thanks to Jeff and the rest of you for keeping tabs on this stuff.
The 18z model run for the GFS is out and it is virtually the same as the last run if just SLIGHTLY nudged north when Dean hits Mexico, but it is nearly identical to the last run. It was interesting checking out the global models and how they handle the low pressure system moving across Florida. Many of them now seem to handle it the way the GFS does with it moving at virtually the same speed.
No problem. Another really good local resource is the Chronicle's SciGuy blog with Eric Berger. His blog is highly regarded and he gives out great info on there without the hyperbole. I comment on there often. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy
Just look at the latest satellite image from Dean !!! Looks better (stronger) than ever. It is now looking more and more like a classic hurricane with a visible small eye. I bet it will be calssified as a Cat. 4 in the next NHC update, 8:00 p.m. eastern. Watch.... http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm4/atl4satellite_large.html
I agree, I don't even watch the news anymore. Unless I want my daily fix of inner city crime and freak shows.
The AEMN is a "mean" model from the GFS. According to what I've read, it is a mean average model between the GFS and the furthest outlier of the other models, in this case, the CLIPS, which is unreliable. It is meant to show an average so it will move around depending upon the movement of the other models. The HWRF hasn't posted it's 18z run yet, but it has been pretty consistent bringing the storm right across the tip of the Yucatan and continued west northwest into southern Texas. That model has been slower than the rest, but the 12z run seemed to catch up a bit. I still think the GFS has been the most consistent and reliable with this storm, but we'll see. The NHC forecast is the one to pay attention to more than the others. I wouldn't be surprised if it nudged slightly south in the 10pm advisory. The SHIPS model that has the 18z run out looks like it has Dean interacting with land for a little while, bringing it closer into consensus with the track models.
For the love of God, would someone please call Vince Young and have him stop Dean from hitting our great state!
Jeff, could you give an explanation on what an "ensemble run" is? http://wxcaster.com/GFS_ENSEMBLE_GULF-MEXICO_DEAN.png
Another shift has occurred with the models. The GFDL is now much closer to the Yucatan with a landfall in central Texas just north of Victoria. The NOGAPS and GFL have turned MUCH further south going across the southern Yucatan and BARELY re-emerging in the Gulf before very quickly moving into the southern coast of Mexico. The UKMET has moved south as well now going through the central Yucatan and making a second landfall along the north central Mexican coast well south of Texas. The models have been trending south all day. We'll have to see where we go from here.
i just picked up my "oh sh*t" supplies 4 gallons of distilled water 24 bottles of drinking water lantern portable radio batteries crackers cheez whiz cereal bars trail mix beef jerky tuna kits 6 pack of fat tire first aid kit flash light blanket bring on the storms!
Anyone want to have a prediction of where it will hit in the USA? My guess is that it jogs a bit north, but not too much and comes on land between Corpus Christi and Brownsville as a Cat 3. DD
The new advisory (8 pm eastern) is in. Like is suspected it is now a Cat. 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. You could tell that it was intensifying simply by looking at the satellite images when there was a clear eye visible.
