The latest run of the UKMET now has it well south into Mexico very near the GFS. The GFDL is now in central Lousiana??? I have to wonder if the GFDL will eventually move back south with the other models. It's a very wide spread.
Weather Channel just posted the update and they showed most all of the runs converging more southward towards an extreme S. Texas or Mexico landfall, with only the GFDL going really haywire.
i'm GUESSING that would mean we'd got lots of heavy rain. but it's still soooo far out there. just need to keep tuned to see what's happening.
I think what is throwing the meters off, is they may not take in effect that the High Pressure system thats moving over into Florida, may pull or guide Dean up towards Texas
I have a co-worker who's wife does emergency dispatch. Because of the evacuation issues and the speed of the storm, there is a lot of talk about calling for a voluntary evacuation as soon as tomorrow afternoon here in Jefferson County. I would expect that Harris and surrounding counties would call for that evacuation at the same time. (Even so, I'll refuel and wait until much later before evacuating.)
Is there a link to somewhere that shows all the models together, not the cone on the national hurricane site?
They just got out of a meeting about it, and they're going to meet again this evening and midday tomorrow. It really seemed early to me, too, but after 05, people are jumpy.
Accorrding to the NHC model forcast, (see post 233 from MadMax), Kingston, Jamaica, Cayman Island, and Cancun will ALL take direct hits from Dean which is forcasted to become a strong cat. 4 hurricane at landfall. Looks like it'll be a historical hurricane for Jamaica, Cayman Is. and Cancun... It's now cat. 3 with 125 mph winds...
Four times each day: midnight, 6am, noon and 6pm UTC, which I believe is 6 hours ahead of us. Those times are marked by 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z on many models. The models TEND to update at around 9:30pm, 4am, 9:30am and 4pm.
