As of right now one thing seems certain. Jamaica will take a direct hit from the strongest side (north-east quadrant) of Dean. I'll be interesting to see how powerful Dean will be at that point, maybe a strong cat. 3.
Absolutely true. The ONLY positive thing is that it doesn't appear it will take a direct hit from the eyewall, but they are going to get seriously battered by this storm. It's really kind of amazing Jamaica hasn't been hit more often where it is. It also looks like the western coast of the Yucatan is going to take a direct hit now. Wrong time of year to go on vacation in the Caribbean.
The Weather Channel in one of their segments, just said that Dean's size can be compared to the size of the State of Texas. That is pretty big for such a "compact" storm. I know, I know... I am a Weather Channel 'w****', I watch it all the time.
That is pretty damn big. Still not the size of Katrina, but that's a big ass storm. I'm still amazed of the photo I have of Katrina sitting in the Gulf and nearly filling the entire area. Crazy.
Yikes. Dean is looking like a mean one. My wife and I were planning a trip to Port Aransas this weekend. Think we should cancel?
It's not supposed to hit until next week. Then again you should probably spend the weekend in a panic getting your supplies at Home Depot and boarding up your windows.
Next Thursday I am supposed to fly from Orlando to Houston at 1pm in the afternoon, getting in around 4:30 pm. Am I F'd in the A? I haven't been home from NY in months. If Dean messes up my trip to my hometown, I'm going to punch it in the face.
This is going to be a hellish weekend of preparation. A couple of the models are zeroing in on a upper texas/la landfall. Here's the GFDL. One of the more accurate models. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdl...an04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation NOT GOOD! Edit: Here is the UKMET. Another of the more accurate models out there. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007081700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Holy crap this is looking bad.
^^^^^ OMG !!! I can't tell the intensity at landfall for the UKMET model, but the GFDL model shows a cat. 5 hurricane landfalling both on the northern tip of the Yucutan and in the gulf approaching the Galveston area. I sure hope these two models are wrong.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html?MR=1 The two mentioned models show Dean plowing after us, but the 3 others look like he's going straight into Mexico, with only the TX valley getting dirty side effects. I'm waiting until they all start converging to worry. Maybe I'll buy some tape this weekend, but that's it. Evan
White and Blue lines have pretty much a direct hit right at Houston/Galveston. blue and white are MAVS colors!! F*CK the Mavs!
What a frigging annoying morning. The guidance that was so tightly clustered last night became more like a cluster**** after the hurricane hunter data was included in this morning's runs. The models apparently are struggling to deal with the emergence of an upper-level trough of low pressure forecast early next week. Low's act to pull storms towards them. They also are struggling with just how much the upper level high will weaken over the next few days. The UKMET, GFDL continue to be to the north while the NOGAPS and ever-steady GFS remain to the south. There are two bits of good news. First, the NHC doesn't consider the swing of the northernmost models to be convincing enough yet to forecast a significant change in the guidance. That means that they still believe it will strike the Yucatan and move into the south central Gulf. Second, Dean has weakened since last night as it's being invaded by dry air. Dean will very likely still strengthen and the forecast calls for it to reach major status in a couple days, but it's still a crap shoot. I went to bed feeling all good about our chances and now I have to go do a bunch of preparedness crap. Damn models ruin my weekend. <-- never thought I'd say that "models" would RUIN my weekend.
