In a nutshell, some people have a tendency to look at things in a vacuum and get overly excited about small sample sizes. This sort of applies to a lot of things, from drafts to trades to players and so on.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog...spn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=law_keith&id=6817768 anybody have insider?
Lowering expectations can also help us as fans, imo. You don't wanna be too cynical (like I often get) but wouldn't you rather genuinely expect marginal improvement and be pleasantly surprised if it's more than that than vice versa? My attitude is that this round of trades will push our farm system past that of a couple other NL orgs. I really don't expect more. If it happens to be more, bonus. Or if we're talking about a player, instead of saying "Altuve is the next Craig Biggio! He's gonna man 2B for the next decade!" grin and finding out that he isn't anything close to that, say "Altuve looks to have some nice tools. I think he has a chance to be a decent player despite his shortcomings. It'll be interesting to see if where he is 2 or 3 years from now." If he becomes something special, great. If not, you never expected too much and thus aren't too disappointed.
A couple of things went into that prediction that hasn't panned out. I assumed we would spend some serious cash in the draft on prospects with super high ceilings and change some guys minds that would normally go back to school. Neither has really happened, Wade decided to go the safe route with high floor guys which is fine but it killed my prediction. We passed on guys like Smoak and Trout, now imagine those two in our system instead of Castro and Mier. Another thing that did me in was that I expected to mix in a few more prospects via trade. Oswalt and Berkman made it very difficult to get prospects due to demands and performance. Springer is the high ceiling guy I expected and Armstrong is the college kid that we could convince to exit college early that could improve the system in a hurry that we haven't gone after.
In a huge deal completed Friday night, the Philadelphia Phillies get Hunter Pence from the Houston Astros, an upgrade over Raul Ibanez, and can take heart in the fact that Pence is more than just a rental for 2011. The Astros get a ton of potential long-term value. However, both of the major prospects coming over in this deal carry substantial risk of not just failing to reach their ceilings, but failing to contribute in a significant way in the majors. That is, they are high-risk, high-reward prospects. Pence should slide Ibanez to the bench or roster purgatory -- known in baseball scriptures as "designated for assignment" -- with Domonic Brown getting the bulk of the playing time in right field. Pence should be an average to above-average defender in left, which alone might be worth a win over what Ibanez's glove might have cost the Phillies, and his bat could be worth another win this year as well, a pretty healthy swing for most teams but probably irrelevant for a Phillies team that was headed to the playoffs even if it stationed Raul Julia in left. Going forward, Pence does give the Phillies a left-field solution for the next two years, but because he was a super-two player, his salary is going to start to approach his actual value. After winning his arbitration hearing this year for $6.9 million, he easily could earn $23 million over the next two years, more if he finds Philly's smaller park to his liking and gets back into the 25-homer range. He also has never been a patient hitter and relies on high batting averages to keep his on-base percentage respectable, twice dipping below .330 in his career because his batting average on balls in play dropped. As for the Astros, they now have a new No. 1 prospect -- and a new No. 2 prospect. Right-hander Jarred Cosart will pitch with a plus fastball at 93-98 mph with a plus curveball that shows good depth and tight rotation, although the Phillies had him tinker with a spike curveball earlier this year that he couldn't command (because almost no one can command that pitch). His changeup is barely a factor at this point, although that could improve with time and usage. He's pretty athletic but very stiff and rigid, and he comes across his body in his delivery, which can diminish command to the glove side and lead to long-term arm problems. Cosart missed most of last season due to elbow soreness that led the Phillies to shut him down rather than have him risk structural damage, although his velocity returned intact for instructional league. You could see the makings of a No. 1 starter there if someone loosens up his delivery a little and, more importantly, gets him landing on line to the plate. But there is no guarantee such a change would hold or would leave his stuff intact, and if that doesn't work, he projects more as a front-line reliever because he probably can't handle a 200-inning workload. Jonathan Singleton has two major things going for him as a prospect -- a great-looking swing and very good patience for his age. He shows good hand speed, balance and rhythm at the plate, along with excellent hip rotation for future plus power. He can get out on his front foot too much, but he gets great extension through the zone, and if he keeps his weight back he should be a 25-30 homer guy at worst. The Phillies tried to alter how he uses his feet, causing a dip in his performance, but after a few weeks he went back to his old mechanics and began to hit again, going .346/.424/.543 (BA/OBP/SLG) since bottoming out June 20. He recognizes balls and strikes well, shows good plate coverage inside and out, and doesn't expand the zone, making him a difficult out and less likely to collapse when he's promoted and faces a higher caliber of pitching. He's an athletic defender at first who struggled in a brief trial in left this year. He also tired very badly at the end of last season, earlier than most teenage prospects in their first full year of pro ball, although I would guess that problem goes away with physical growth and better conditioning. The Astros also get Josh Zeid, an organizational arm who might surface as a middle reliever, and a player to be named later who reportedly is not a major prospect. Is this enough of a return for two-plus years of Pence at arbitration salaries? I'd call it a reasonable return, but not a great one, given the risk attached to both of those prospects. This deal easily could result in disaster for Houston, if Pence gets a few more fastballs in Philly and regains what he seems to have lost at the plate this year, and if the red flags on these prospects (especially Cosart) prove prophetic. I do think a player who's more than a rental should return one prospect of a little more certainty than either of these two guys can offer, or that it should have included one more major prospect from Philadelphia. For the Phillies, Pence isn't a star but is better than anything they were likely to run out in left this year or next, and perhaps getting off the league's worst team will lead to a small resurgence in his performance.
All that just plays into my point. You are working with a lot of unknowns which is why you should temper expectations. And what is known is that teams rarely jump 15-20 slots in just a couple of years in those rankings, no matter how focused they are on drafts. Remember that a lot of those teams ahead of you are also drafting, trading for the future, etc... (vacuum concept). Another point that I was trying to make to you back then was that we really don't possess an intimate knowledge of every other organization so it's impossible to gauge the relativity of the situation. Even had we spent more cash on more high-ceiling players (which should have been clear wouldn't be the case knowing that spending over slot on just one player would be a monumental change for us) and had we gotten more for Oswalt and Berkman, we still probably wouldn't be anywhere near what you were convinced we would be. I believe your prediction also came after we picked Castro and Mier (at least one of them). All in all, your arguments just further validate the general point I'm trying to make about setting reasonable expectations for the rate of organizational improvement relative to the rest of the league given historical evidence and the plethora of unknowns.
At this point, I really am not to concerned with rankings as I am with just prospects and potential. I just hope we can acquire those high ceiling guys we are missing instead of so many high floor guys.
Regarding that Insider article, I have two stand-out thoughts: 1. Sounds like how we develop Cosart is crucial. Hopefully the coaches at the lower levels are well-equipped to guide him through those necessary changes. 2. There is no way this turns into a disaster for us. Even if both prospect fail and Pence hits 100 HRs a season, this was a good sell-high move for us. We had zero to gain by keeping Pence and we were never likely to get a better deal. I like that we are going for high-risk/high-reward young players in this case. We've been drafting/signing in volume for a while now and need to hit on a couple of those. We'll take our chances.
A curveball with real sharp movement as opposed to a loopy one like randy wolf was throwing tonight.... usually spike curve are like sliders that go straight down and depending on fastball speed come in at about 80-82 mph
I realize it sounds stupid that this would be "sell-high" if Pence hits 100 HRs a season but the fact is that it's extremely unlikely that he improves significantly and any marginal improvements are more likely to be products of the lineup and park he's hitting in.
that's what i figured, but without seeing somebody throw it, it's hard to believe it would be any different than a slider. does it cut horizontally rather than vertically? sounds gyroball-esque in its mystique.
I had to look it up. Here's a vid on throwing one. <iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JCkDy8x9mGU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Apparently, Cliff Lee and Dan Haren, among others, throw one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knuckle_curve
Cosart's nasty curve a few weeks ago at the Futures Game: (Don't know if this was posted before) Jesus, he looks a lil bit like Oswalt.
