Thanks for clarifying; I understand the correlation you were drawing. sorry for the near hijack. good save!
At the time, Randy Johnson was coming off multiple back problems and had a 4+ ERA when we got him. He was thought to be clearly on the downside of his career. I would agree that neither will fetch a sum like Johnson did, but if you could get just Carlos Guillen, you'd have a SS for 7-10 years (as an example). They'll fetch a whole lot more than Huff or Zambrano did. CC Sabathia, for a 2 month rental, fetched a one of baseball's top prospects just a few years ago. Berkman could do the same - he would be clearly the best hitter available, probably by far. Oswalt would be get less unless he has a really good year, but he's also signed for 1.5 years instead of just 0.5, so that adds to his value.
This is assuming they have their normal years again... I am pretty tough on Puma most of the time but even I have to admit he is still a dam good hitter and teams will payup for him. If or when he is put on the market, contending team like the Sox and Braves would be ready to payup for Lance. Teams are so desperate for front line pitching that even a declining Roy will still deliver prime prospects in return. I could see the Mets, Angels and Rangers all willing to move some of their talent for a crack at this version of the Wiz.
I can honestly say I wouldn't be that upset. Oswalt and Berkman are great, but I'm just not as attached as I was to Biggio and Bagwell (most likely because the Astros were *winning* back then). Especially if the Astros were to net some serious talent in return. I've said many times before, even though these circumstances are quite different, 91-95 were *fun*. Losing and all. Because the young guys were exciting to watch, and they were improving every year. I could live through that again. Absolutely I could.
You have excessive expectations about what Oswalt or Berkman will bring back in a trade. We will not be getting younger, AAA versions of Oswalt or Berkman. The players, that those trades would bring, would certainly have high potential but no guarantees of a long successful career. You might want to look back at the Billy Wagner trade, who at the time was an all star closer with many good years left in the tank. We got from Philly a handful of their better prospects, none of which did much for the Astros. Finally, prospects by definition are one or two years away from being an everyday MLB player. Two more seasons of purgatory might still be in the cards if Oswalt or Berkman traded. The only argument I see for trading our star veterans is if they are standing in the way of another up and coming star. For example, if after next season, Koby Clemens looks like a can't miss MLB hitter and first base is the only position that he play defense, the Astros might looking into trading Lance or trading Lee and moving Lance into RF.
True. We won't necessarily get younger but you would be saving lots of $$$ which you could use to sign younger players. You would be saving money and rebuilding instead of blowing money and waiting/rebuilding. No sense in wasting O's or Berkmans time here. Lee can't be traded till next season. I hope your right about Koby because I think he's a Career minor leaguer.
Berkman can still hit. There is no denying that, whereas there is doubt if Oswalt is an ace. I just don't see either fetching the kind of player everybody wants. I think the Astros future depends on Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, & Tanner Bushue.
Trade Berkman, get some prospects for the minors. In the Off-Season get this man, he'll give the home-town a discount. After all he wants to play here. To bad he sucks at defense, but hey he shows no sign of aging and is cheaper and younger.
I might be wrong but ... Good younger players are under a club's control for five years. I just don't remember that many good young FAs on the market. The few that I can think of would require out bidding the Yankees.
I agree with that. Oswalt is a good pitcher but he also has consistency problems. He is definitely not among the elite pitchers of the league imo. He has stretches where he pitches really well and the run support isn't there. But, he also has stretches where he has control issues that leads to giving up runs and HRs. A lot of his problems just stem from the fact that there is little margin for error in games he pitches in...as we won't usually score (m)any runs when he pitches. Or, he goes out and the next pitcher who comes up in relief promptly gives up the lead. He is our team's ace...that much is certain. He would fare much better on a team with a real offense. That much is obvious.
But you're assuming the goal is to get stars. What if the goal is to get good, cheap #3 starters or decent hitters at 2B or SS or C or wherever else. A successful mid-market team relies on having few to no holes - that's been the Astros' biggest problem these last few years. They have the stars, but there are holes everywhere. If you can start plugging in all those positions with cheap, club-controlled players while also clearing your salary down to $30MM, then you have $70MM to go spend on stars at whatever holes you have (not saying they should do this - but this is one way to build a team).
Yes, nicely said. Stros have an advantage over middle market clubs in that they can and have actually gone out and spent money in an effort to improve, bad moves but moves nevertheless. If they can acquire good, young and cheap talent via trade and then DRAFT stars you will start to see some major changes in the organization. If you surround the young talent with established stars via FAgency you will then have yourself a winner. The best example of this that comes to mind right now is 1993, the Stros had tons of young talent at the time Bagwell, Biggio, Caminiti, Finley, Gonzalez and Harnisch but they needed direction so they went out and spent mega bucks, for the time period, to get Drabek and Swindell. These guys were established big league winners, now the end result may have not turned out like they wanted but the purpose was clear.
A few nights ago I was looking at our lineup and just disgusted. I then thought about the Twins Roster. That Roster has two above average hitters in Morneau and Mauer, and then they have a consistent lineup, there line-up doesn't have near as many holes as ours. We need a lineup like that, with consistently decent hitters through out. You can't afford to have four slots in a row of sub .250 non power hitters like we have. 1. Denard Span: CF 2. J.J. Hardy: SS 3. Joe Mauer: C 4. Justin Morneau: 1st 5. Michael Cuddyer: RF 6. Jason Kubel: DH 7. Delmon Young: LF 8. Brendon Harris: 3rd 9. Nick Punto: 2nd That is a strong line-up top to bottom with nobody getting paid a serious amount except Morneau and Mauer. The Twins payroll is not even bad either. I'd rather have average .280 hitters throughout than have one guy who hits 40 homeruns and then the rest of the lineup suck. The Twins roster is very pay-roll efficient as well. If only the Astros could model themselves off them ;/
The Twins actually have a higher payroll this season. And Mauer enters that huge contract next year. Our offense struggles a lot from inconsistency and a lack of power. Not much can change that right now.
I'd rather get star potential with the 2 draft picks then pick up another Bud Norris. I think Valverde worked out perfectly, and Hawkins would have too, except the team made a huge mistake with him by not offering arbitration.
He inherited it then destroyed it and ran the good baseball people out of town. He is always thinking about "now" and not enough about the future. It's hard to be successful in the long run with that approach in a leauge with no cap.
Drayton McLane is probably among the worst owners in the history of modern baseball when it comes to managing a farm system or managing the people who manage the farm system, depending on how you want to look at it. I'm not saying that he hasn't done good things but he inherited some good players and good baseball people and the further that we get removed from the time when we took over, the more that the current product fully reflects his management philosophy.
If he had sold the team this past season that could of been the best things to happen in years. At this point I think it's only a matter of time before an offer comes that he can't refuse. We've seen the offers publicized in recent years. When the team is good or even watchable this team is a cash cow. And with the teams value at a low right now I think someone is going to capitalize.
