Official Electoral Vote Thread

Based on current polling and trends, Clinton wins 352-186.

Trump best case: Clinton wins 294-243.

Clinton best case: Clinton wins 404-134.

My prediction: Clinton wins 358-179.

 

Here's the interactive version: http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map

 

After that Al Smith dinner fiasco, I may have to revise my prediction. I think Trump just handed Clinton Ohio and Indiana.

 

Goofing around with the electoral map, I see it is possible to reach 270 with only 11 states. Of those, polling has Clinton ahead in 9 (CA, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, NJ, NC, FL) for a 216-54 advantage. Trump's two states are TX and GA. If you give OH to Trump, it is 198-72.

There are 10 additional states with double-digit electoral votes and being quite generous to Trump, Clinton leads those states 66-43.

For the 17 states with 5-9 electoral votes and again being generous to Trump, he leads 75-40.

Finally, for those 13 (12 states plus DC) that come in with 3-4 electoral votes, Clinton leads 25-19. Of those, Alaska is the only one close to being a swing state so I gave it to Trump.

Final tally: 347 for Clinton and 191 for Trump, or, giving Trump Ohio, it is 329-209

Clinton could win with as few as 15 states, Trump will need 28-29 states to have a shot.

So, it will be an early election night. For Trump to be the next President he has to win PA. After that, he has to win NH, VA, and NC together or if he misses on one of those, he has to pick up FL. That's his only path and it assumes he gets every other state he needs, like OH, NV, AZ, AK, IA, MO, IN, GA, WV, etc.