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[Official] Diamondbacks @ Astros

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Sep 27, 2022.

  1. Marshall Bryant

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    Below 76- failing/awful/black hole.; Dubon 59; Maldenado 67
    76-85- very bad; Gurriel 82
    86- 95- bad
    96-105- average; Pena 96; A Diaz 102; Vasquez 97
    106-115- good; McCormick 108; Mancini 106
    116-125- very good; (Brantley) 124
    126-135- all star caliber with the bat; Bregman 135; Tucker 131
    136-145- elite;
    146 plus- let’s talk about how high he ought to finish in the mvp voting; Alvarez 187; Altuve 159;

    Everyone else below 200 PA.
     
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  2. Wulaw Horn

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    Having a 1B anywhere lower than Very Good is just such a freaking beat down, and I’d say the same about LF. It’s nice anywhere you can get extra production from a hard defensive position, but layering in the defensive spectrum to this you would say the following is acceptable results:

    black hole- backup Catcher. We wish it wasn’t so but it’s fine if he’s good enough defensively- especially a 2nd catcher

    Very Bad- utility IF that plays short stop- maybe starting catcher

    Bad- SS. The number of human beings in the world good enough defensively to play high level defense in the majors and also hit average ir above is exceedingly low (like maybe 15 or 20 at any time. If you have a good glove SS you should view anything average or above offensively as a win and be happy.

    Average- CF, 2B. These are up the middle positions not super easy to play that require a ton of skill and athleticism. Glove is really important and not everyone can play here. It’s hard to find better than average.

    Good- 3B and RF. The two hardest corner positions to play defensively, both need a strong arm. 3B you want quick reflexes and soft hands. Right field you want a big arm. It’s where guys that can’t cut it SS or CF get moved so you better be worth moving with a good bat

    Very Good- LF and a first base. These are positions you put guys that are donkeys in. Donkeys better be able to hit good.

    so- looking at this the Astros have to get better at Lf and 1B.
     
  3. Major

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    I love Javier and don't want him going anywhere, but the problem with this line of thought is that fans never want to trade their good players; but trading those guys is how you get stars in return. Other teams aren't going to give up value for Urquidy types. Right now, if the Astros keep JV, they simply have too many SP's. It's a good problem to have, and you don't want to trade any in an ideal world, but with as many holes in the lineup as they have and their unwillingness to pay market value for top-tier free agents, trading SPs is probably the best way to improve the team.

    An ideal team probably has 5 reliable SPs and one or two minor leaguers or emergency guys ready to come up and get some starts (this is how those guys get opportunities). In the Astros' case, if they go with the 6 man rotation again, you can fit one more in there. But as of now, the Astros would have 7 legit good SPs (Verlander, Framber, Javier, LMJ, Garcia, Urquidy, and Brown) plus I assume some minor leaguers waiting for callups next year. It's a nice luxury, but probably not at the expense of having holes in the offense. I suspect one of them is gone next year - it could be as simple as JV. But if they keep him, Javier is probably the one with the most trade value.
     
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  4. Buck Turgidson

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  5. Wulaw Horn

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    That’s bc Brantley played half the season there and was above average and bc Yordan rakes when he plays there (and Chas is great against LHP). I don’t consider Yordan a LF but if he’s in a platoon against RHP and Chas plays against LHP then you are awesome there obviously. I just consider Yordan your DH. A platoon in LF where the big bats get half rest days all season at DH would solve LF and DH. Then if you have an A Diaz type that can play 2B, SS 3B and the occasional RF then you are in great shape at Lf and DH.
     
  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'm not sure there is anyone better than Javier, that is on a contract the Astros would be willing to accept, isn't on a contender, and has less control.* Trading guys like Javier is how a team losses a star.

    Ideally, a team has about 4-5 minor leaguers/emergency guys as usually the 6-10 SPs get about 30-40 starts combined and the top 1-2 minor league guys aren't always ready precisely when needed.

    *Edit: Ohtani is the only one I can find that would clearly meet this criteria.
     
    #466 Joe Joe, Sep 30, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2022
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  7. Major

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    This reminds of the "there are no teams needing an expensive SS!" nonsense. There are always deals to be made. Javier is not a unicorn such that there are no combinations of players/prospects that are of comparable value. That would imply he's worth more to the Astros than anyone else, and given their pitching depth, we know that's not the case.
     
  8. Marshall Bryant

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  9. Buck Turgidson

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    Check your math.
     
  10. Marshall Bryant

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    It's a very liberal ALMOST half. 55 out of 156 is closer to 1/3rd. But 1/3rd of Avarez... and Brantley before he was injured... just makes sense to me.
     
  11. Marshall Bryant

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    It's not whether you can use him, but at what cost. He got a short term contract, not a 10 year 30M+/yr contract. AND those contracts often look good for a year or two before the cost rears it's ugly head.
     
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    I just would have assumed that somewhere out there was a regular LF or 3 having a great all-around year...absolutely not the case.

    https://www.mlb.com/stats/?playerPool=ALL&position=LF
     
    #472 Buck Turgidson, Sep 30, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2022
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  13. the shark

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    Every team has a hole somewhere for crying out loud.

    Do you think the Braves are thinking they should trade Strider to fill a weakness they have? The Dodgers (best record in mlb) do not have a closer. I wonder if they would consider trading someone like Buehler? The DBacks have a ton of holes, I wonder if they're considering trading Gallen to shore up some weaknesses?

    You can NEVER have enough elite pitching. The key is identifying who's good and who has the ability to be elite. You better be d@mn sure who you're trading away to plug a need or you'll be looking at what the Dodgers did trading away Yordan for f'n Josh Fields. You don't think they'd like to have him back???

    Framber had a great yr but wet the bed numerous times in the playoffs last yr. Let's see how he does in this yrs playoffs. Same with Garcia (heck he may not even start and if he is on the roster he may be in the pen).

    Let's see how Javier handles being a starter in the playoffs as opposed to coming out of the pen.

    I understand wanting to upgrade CF and 1B and that $ might be tight so they may have to explore potential trades. That said they better make sure they're not trading the wrong player(s). I'd be holding on to Javier and Brown to see what I have with them. The picture will be a lot clearer after the playoffs this yr.
     
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  14. Marshall Bryant

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    It's what I would expect for CF.

    Top of the list is Schwarber and NOT a fit for the Astros. (195 SOs)
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    There are always deals to be made, but realistically speaking, Javier will not be traded. Guys like Javier are rarely traded. I don't think Javier is a unicorn. I just think most players (~60 or so) better than him are on contenders (i.e., highly unlikely to be traded), are on non-contenders with more or same amount of control (highly unlikely to be traded), free agents (can't be traded), ore highly paid on non-contenders. Ohtani is the only one I can think of that matches typical trades (contender trades more long term value to non-contender for short term value or poor team trades expensive better player for cheaper, more controlleed players). Also, trading Javier for a combination of players and prospects would cost the Astros a star as I said(Javier).

    There is an infinitesimal chance Javier is traded. If holding out that small shred of chance makes you happy and feel superior, go for it. We both know, Javier will be an Astro next season with near 100% certainty.
     
    #475 Joe Joe, Sep 30, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2022
  16. Major

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    If the Braves or Dodgers had 7 legitimate starting pitchers and no way to use them all efficiently, they'd absolutely be considering trading one to fill other key holes on their team.

    This is ... weird. They aren't trading Javier or anyone else this week. And of course the picture will be clearer after the playoffs. But you seem to be implying "trade the guys who **** the bed". My point is that's where fans go wrong with their valuations - it creates a constant "sell low" mentality if you're only trading the players who suck the most. If you want to maximize value, you have a long-term valuation already in mind and if the player exceeds it, that's who you want to trade (on the assumption that they aren't actually that good).

    I agree Javier has superstar potential - I've been saying to scrap the bullpen nonsense for 2 years. But if the Astros don't think he's *that* much better than, say, Garcia, then if he's lights out in the postseason while Garcia is mediocre, then trading Javier would be where you can get max value.

    I don't know who will be traded or how the starting pitching will get sorted out, but I'm pretty sure not all 7 of the current SPs will be here next year. The question is who do you get rid of most efficiently. My best guess is that Verlander is gone, and hopefully they use the money to just sign some hitting, but they just haven't shown a willingness to pay elite players market value.
     
    #476 Major, Sep 30, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2022
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  17. Marshall Bryant

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    I'd like Trout in CF, Ohtani DHing and Alvarez in LF. Then Goldschmidt at 1B. And Judge with the NYY swallowing up $50M/yr for 10 years so they can't fill holes.

    But this is just a fantasy and would probably become a nightmare if it really happened.
    1. R 1B Goldschmidt 7.6 WAR
    2. L LF Alvarez 6.5 WAR
    3. R CF Trout 5.6 WAR
    4. L RF Tucker 5.5 WAR
    5. R 2B Altuve 4.9 WAR
    6. L DH Ohtani 3.9 oWAR
    7. R 3B Bregman 4.6 WAR
    8. R SS Pena 4.4 WAR
    9. R C Maldenado 0.0 WAR/ R Vasquez 1.9 WAR

    I could live with a hole at Catcher with the top 8.

    Rotation
    Ohtani 5.8 pWAR
    Verlander 5.5 WAR
    Vakdez 3.6 WAR
    Javier 3.3 WAR
    McCullers 3.4 WAR (2021)
    Brown, Garcia, Urquidy
     
    #477 Marshall Bryant, Sep 30, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2022
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    Ugh. That guy has been the most perpetually under the radar, undervalued, ~superstar I can think of recently. He would have looked good in Orange and Blue.

    8th round pick (kudos to the entire MLB/media scouting apparatus)
    Never a top-100 prospect (ditto)
    Rakes in Arizona
    Gets traded for a meh+ package the offseason before FA (1 top 50ish prospect, 1 former 1st rounder with meh success for 3 years in MLB, 1 roster filler, 1 Comp Rd B draft pick, either #74 or 75)
    Re-signs a pricey but very reasonable FA deal
    Continues to rake
    Should be MVP, finally, he's had 2-2s, a 3, and 2-6s
     
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