Yea kinda agree with you on Bazardo but what gives me hope is that I believe Hooten found a mechincal adjustment this year that improved his numbers a great deal...give him a few starts which looks like will happen with Hampy getting hurt so lets hope....
Well cappy game but there are some positives... JMike is finally hitting and that is always good to see our bench come through. Caballo getting his 300th hr was a nice moment. Wesley pitched well going 3 innings and its beginning to spark my interest to see him as a starter in Septemeber. Negatives... Hampton got hurt but even before that was horrible again, just hard to see sometimes. I felt so good for him Monday but tonight went right back to being bad and now injuried. Bazardo was placed in a position to fail but didn't look good at all still plenty of time to show his stuff. Hitters failed to come through with Clutch hits and DPs are mounting at an embarrasing pace. Overall Sucky game!
I know I'm supposed to think that's important...but how many times do the Astros have to beat their preseason projected win total by 15-20 games before I can ignore all of that crap completely?
i was exaggerating a bit for emphasis..but... our PECOTA projection for last year was 74 wins...we won 86...12 game difference. our PECOTA projection for this year was 66. we'll beat that by 13 games at our current .491 pace. i'd argue that 12 and 13 game differences are way too substantial for me to put a whole lot of faith in PECOTA for the 'stros in 2010. "Beware of geeks bearing formulas" - Warren Buffett
oh yeah. I'm sure there are plenty of examples of teams outplayng or underplaying preseason forecasts by a decent amount. I thought we were talking about outplaying their run differential by a substantial amount, which I think is a lot rarer.
I believe both the "outperforming expectations" and "2nd half team" phenomenons are somewhat exaggerated and not strongly based on actual data. They have happened a couple of times in recent years but I'm guessing most every team in the league has had seasons where they outperformed expectations or made strong 2nd half runs. We've just had a few good runs in recent years so it's fresh on the mind. Even in those cases, I'm not sure how much we actually beat our expected win totals. I'd like to dig up the numbers at some point. You would also have to factor in trades like the one for Beltran which changed our chances midway through a season. We are also barely the same team as we were in '04 and '05 so it's hard to expect similar performance based on personnel. The fact is that every Astros playoff team has had a positive run differential. The recent Astros playoff teams had very significant positive run differentials (2005, +84... 2004, +105). Only 6 teams have ever made the playoffs with a negative run differential. No matter how you twist it, run differential over a lengthy 162-game season has a very strong correlation with both wins and playoff chances even if there is an occasional blip.
Ouch...its hard to have a good run diff. with pitching like this... richardjustice RT @brianmctaggart: Hampton has allowed 25 runs in the first inning. His 11.37 ERA in 1st inn is the worst among pitchers w/ at least 15 inn
1. the last 2 seasons are when i've been aware of PECOTA. the 'stros beat it by 12 last season...i'm guessing they'll beat it by at least that again this season. 2. as for second half surges...if you're talking about the one last year, i'd agree...but 2004 and 2005 were intensely unique...like, going back to the Giants of 1951 unique.
I wasn't aware that Bazardo started for RR on Wednesday. So, on top of being told he was unlikely to be used before the game, he was coming off only 2 days of rest since his last start. I don't know what to expect from him in the long run but I won't put too much into yesterday's performance. 1. His arm was probably still tired from his Wed. start. 2. He was pitching in relief after being a starter all year for RR. 3. He was told it was unlikely he would pitch before the game. 4. He didn't get his normal warm up.
I don't want to start a bash Coop discussion but I really have no idea why he put him in that position...I understand the plan was for him to be the long man but on 2 days rest after being told he wasn't going to pitch??? It just put him in a position to fail and plus how many innings did you expect from him coming off 2 days rest?? Rather use Wesley earlier and let him go 3 innings to help out the pen.
I hope Coop doesn't do to him what he did to Troy Patton. I swear, I hope someone can keep tabs on the young pitchers, I don't trust Cooper when it comes to handling young arms. He seems to always play the game like it was a "must win" playoff game. Bazardo shouldn't have even had his spikes on unless it was an extreme emergency (i.e. extra innings and they were out of arms). I know he's not an 18 year-old, but come on, why even risk it?
Not only that, but Bazardo was visibly upset at how he performed last night. I mean he got BOOED in his Astros debut. I was at the game and it was apparent by his body language that he was pretty bummed. Pudge had to come out and talk to him to try and calm him like 5 times. Once he got into the dugout he went and sat far away from everyone else. I actually really felt bad for him. He's still a young kid... I hope this doesn't hurt his psyche too much.
I understand a lot of Stros fans are fustrated but the Booing part was just weak...You pay your money to watch the game so you have the right to but people should really know the situation before going off on a guy who has busted his butt to get back in the Bigs and has potential. Boo a guy who makes 17 million and doesn't hustle or a vetern who takes a play off but not a kid making his debut under terrible circumstances.
Unfortunately, Houston fans will never be confused for St. Louis fans.... I'm not saying it's always inappropriate to boo the hometown team or player, but don't just boo for the sake of booing!
