I understand this mindset, i.e., that every GM is going to have some moves that don't work out (JD) and some that work out unexpectedly better than anticipated (McHugh). My quibble with this line of thinking, as it applies to the Astros, is that our future is largely premised on our GM being smarter than the other GMs, because we're not going to outspend anyone. So maybe my criticisms are better aimed at Crane than Luhnow, as it is Crane that refuses to spend any money. In any event, other clubs can afford to make JD Martinez-type mistakes. This club really can't afford to do that with any hopes to succeed.
I'd temper your expectations on the "genius" of anybody in sports... additionally, if letting J.D. Martinez go is going to be Luhnow's biggest mistake, we are in for a helluva lot of success in the future. Odds are, they're going to make a bigger one at some point... just the way this game is. Especially if you're looking at things 5 years + in the future or solely through the retrospectoscope to evaluate things.
Even the greatest GMs in history will have many misses. JD Martinez wasn't a "mistake". They gave him several years and he never figured anything out and actually was getting worse. It's not like they didn't give him a fair chance. Getting released might have been the failure that forced him to re-evaluate his career and figure out something new. And Crane hasn't "refused" to spend money. He has chosen not to waste money to make a 60 win team into a 70 win one.
