he was god-awful for two full months. he slugged less than 200 points below his career average through april and may and then, after a bounce back june, slugged .480 in july with a .333 OB%. if, at 31, you're having prolonged "slumps," - that's a red flag. hopefully, he was hiding something, or.... but - its worrisome.
I haven't had a chance to watch the televised spring training games until tonight. Holy crap do Wandy and Woody look like complete turds on the mound. Wandy was great on the road last year. I was hoping he's be able to bring that magic to Minute Maid but the way he's going so far it doesn't look like that's going to happen. I can't believe Woody is making something like $6 Million.
actually it was the other way around, Wandy was good at Minute Maid but not on the road. Either way, they are getting their ass kicked and it looks like Woody is throwing some beach balls out there.
Oops. You're right. I had the other way in my head and when I checked the splits I guess I saw what I was expecting instead of what was actually there.
Wow. Debut at Minute Maid for the new guys and they get shut out on four hits. Let's hope that isn't a sign of things to come. Not exactly a great way to welcome baseball in at MM for the fans. 10 - 0. Ouch!
I know you're trying to hint at the performing enhancing argument at the end for Lance... which is pretty ridiculous. You convienently leave out Lance's torrid August and solid September after his "average" July... combined with his June, he had three "Lance-like" months, two below average months, and one average month. There is a precedent for this... Lance had prolonged slumps throughout 2003, a year where he was coming off a 40+ HR season (much like last year). The fact that his struggles last year were mainly because of the start of the season, whereas he ended up strong as ever, doesn't have me as worried that this is the "beginning of the end". As far as everything else on this team goes... its one big freaking question mark, and i'm not all that interested or excited.
no, i'm not. didn't even enter my mind. i'm more concerned that he's 32, has had a serious knee injury, and was god-awful for prolonged stretches last year. i didn't conveniently leave out a thing; i wasn't talking about the months in which he played up to expectation; i was specifically discussing the several months in which he did not - those are what conern me. when lance is lance, i have no reason to be concerned. and you're trying to recast his season dramatically, imo. in april and may, his slugging % was 232 and 208 points below his career average (prior to the '07 season) of .569 - that's two consecutive months of him playing WELL below expectation; like, at ausmus expectation. that's a third of his season. from june-sept/oct, he finished: +12, -88 (his "average july), +86 (his "torrid" august) and +12. july (.247/.815) was not "average" for a guy with career averages of .300/.969; he fell 53 points below his career BA and 154 points below his career OPS. during his "torrid" august? +45/+118. so, last year, he posted 2 months way, Way, WAY below average (april, may), one month well below average (july) , one month well above average (august), and two months (june and sept/oct) right at average. for 5 of the 6 months, he was either at his average or well below it. he's obviously still a great hitter, so he was able to pull up some of his counting stats. but it was, overall, a down year for him - his lowest BA, OB% and SLG% of his career. yeah, but that was 5 years ago when lance was in the prime of his career. he's now 32. i'm not trying to pull the covers over his career... but i'd call anyone not at least a wee bit concerned naive. or maybe - overly optimistic. or lance berkman. hopefully, you're right. and probably are.
Says something about the expectations for Berkman (based on his stellar career thus far) that in his "down year", "worst season of his career", he still posted the highest OPS on the team, higher than Carlos Lee, who everyone was pleased with. If the Puma had his poor months at the end of last season I think that would raise more alarms. As is, he started poorly but by the end of the season we were definitely seeing the vintage Lance again.
The Cubs had the 2nd best pitching in the NL last year, only behind San Diego. They gave up 690 runs - the 2nd best in the NL Central was the Brewers at 776 (the Astros were at 813). As for the offense, I agree they have the potential to be great - but the offense was last in the NL Central last year. And other teams improved too. I think picking the Astros somewhere between 3rd and 5th is about right. Of course they could all perform above expectations - but a prediction is not made assuming one team plays great and all the others play average. Something like 25 teams in baseball are a wild card to compete for their division under that circumstance.
It just sunk in that Brandon Backe is the #2 pitcher on this team. And to think that this was the case as of last winter... and not a single thing has been done, or even attempted to be done to rectify this... it is beyond horrible. And there aren't even prospects of the level of Hirsh or Patton waiting in the wings... and I'm going to stop waiting for Wandy to magically become some crafty lefty. He is what he is. The sad thing is, much like last year, this division/league is WIDE OPEN.
I think they have tried to some degree, there just hasn't been much available....not in the realm of a legit number two. And the rotation couldn't be worse than last year when we had to deal with both Jennings and Woody.
But before last year, there was at least a little optimism that Jennings may be able to succeed here as a #2, and that Woody could be serviceable based on his performance the year before. They both ended up being major dissapointments beyond what could have been hoped for. This year, there isn't even that "what if" expectation... now its simply trying to avoid the worst. Nobody really wanted Chacon, Sampson is a reliable #5 (but still a #5), Wandy is inconsistent, and Backe is a big question mark (he will still have the occasional big game, but what about him makes people believe he'll perform above and beyond what his career #'s say).
I'll agree the only way to stay optimistic about this rotation is to hope that everyone sans Oswalt overachieves per their career numbers. And that probably isn't going to happen, at least for the whole season. But again, looking at what we ended up getting in Jennings and Woody, I think it's safe to assume that our rotation will be about equal if not slightly better than last year. I think we know what to expect from Oswalt, Sampson and Wandy at this point. And it's not gonna be too difficult for Chacon and Backe to better the performances of Jennings and Woody from last year.
I knew after watching Woody pitch live last night that he wouldn't be an Astro come Sunday morning. And sure enough, I wake up this morning and he'd been cut. I know it's been said a million times already, but our rotation this year is beyond bad.
There's 67 starts from Albers/JJ/Woody that are going to Backe & Chacon. That has to be an improvement of some sort.
Who are our 6th and 7th starters, though? Backe has pitched more than 70 innings once in his career. Chacon pitched 100 innings each of the past two years, and maxed out at 160 - in the first year of his career (2001). Chances are a number of those 67 starts are going to someone(s) besides the five people currently in the rotation.
glass half-empty kinda guy, eh? i look at it as....hey, the rotation cant perform any worse than last year! (can they?) i think it'll be a fun season, and like i've said in other threads, if we're in striking distance at the trade deadline, i fully expect us to acquire one of the best available arms on the market.
