As I stated above....he has already put negotiations on hold until after the season, meaning that he definitely will hit the market.
I agree with Cat in that Hunter needs to ultimately hit three with Bourne and Matsui in front with protection from Lance or Carlos.We have a balanced lineup and get to take advantage of a guy in Hunter that I see as a throwback player capable of monster seasons...especially with all those fastballs and ducks on the pond he's going to see there.Also with him in front we have three guys that can run,manufacturing runs for smallball which would come in handy in close games/ late in the year.
Ultimately, the quality of the team's offensive players is probably (more-or-less): Berkman Lee Pence Tejada Bourn Towles Matsui Wigginton Why do we we want to give Matsui an extra 60-80 at bats (batting him 2nd instead of 8th), and take away Pence/Tejada/Lee/Berkman at bats in the process? I'd much rather have Bourn/Pence setting the table for Tejada/Lee/Berkman. And having Matsui at the 8 spot, anytime he gets on, he can try to steal some bases and get into scoring position for Bourn/Pence. Or, if you want to be really creative, put the pitcher at 8, and then you can still have the Matsui/Bourn/Pence order, but with Matsui at 9, getting fewer atbats, and with Tejada/Lee/Berkman/Pence all getting about 10-15 more at bats.
i think you're vastly underrating wiggington. not that he's anything special, per se - but matsui is garbage and towles, not to mention bourn and, to a lesser extent even pence are all complete unknowns. last year, wiggington posted an OPS+ of 107. tejada? 109. his OPS was .792 to tejada's .799. and wiggington hit more home runs in roughly the same # of at bats. i don't think he's AS good a hitter as tejada (tejada's OB% is considerably better), but he's not the worst hitter among the starters, imo. not by a long shot.
Certainly true. I was kind of thinking along the lines of what I think the Astros expect from each of the guys. I figure Wigginton is probably expected to be a 0.780-0.800 OPS guy. Tejada had the worst season of his career last year, and I'm assuming the Astros are expecting something closer to the 0.850 range. Towles and Bourn, I'm guessing, are in the low-to-mid 0.800's, and Bourn/Matsui get extra credit for their base stealing. But the general idea what more about Matsui, and how to best use him. I think putting him at the bottom of the order and pushing everyone else up is far more useful than pushing everyone down for him. I think putting him in the 9 spot would be the ideal, but most managers get laughed at for it, even though it's statistically sound.
Err, Bourn probably in the upper 0.700's, but with the basestealing. Towles in the low-to-mid 0.800's.
The average 7-hitter in MLB put up this line last season: .266 / .326 / .415 / .740; 17 HRs 80 RBIs. Wigginton's a good bet to meet or exceed all of those. He's solidly average in the field; his footwork, hands, & arm are fundamentally sound, but not much range to his left & he's not too athletic. He's not as good as Ensberg, but nowhere near as bad as Lamb.
IMO, I don't think there could be a worse combination of 1-3 on the team than Bourn/Matsui/Pence - Bourn & Matsui will likely have the 2 worst OBP of anyone in the starting lineup (according to BBProspectus' PECOTA projections). Regardless of their speed, they should not be at the top of the lineup, Matsui especially - at least Bourn does have some upside potential. I think that Bourn should be batting first with Pence second, and there is no reason that Berkman should not be batting third.
seems like no national analysts are giving us a fighting chance this year. all the espn'ers have us finishing between 4th and 6th in the division, and kurkjian said that the reds are the only team with a remote possibility of contending with the cubs and the brewers. i guess they dont see having the best lineup in the division to be worth much. we'll see what happens i guess. i'm optimistic. there are always surprise teams in baseball every season. the cubs and brewers arent much improved from last year, and we are (offensively). i see us staying in striking distance, then acquiring another arm near the trade deadline. it's that time of the year, stros fans. hope springs eternal.
all i know is the cubs will once again be the media darlings and once again fall flat on their face. or at least i hope so.
The Astros have a good shot at leading the league in runs scored per game. Some decent pitching could go a long way...and who's to say something magical can't happen for the 'Stros in '08. I have them finishing 1st.
Two things are sexy to the national media: elite starting pitching acquisitions and young talent. If you try and build your team in other areas, you'll be overlooked. Such is life. See Colorado, 2007.
i agree with you...over the past 5 years or so, it's like all national sports media have decided that the new trendy analysis is that great starting pitching wins world series, defense wins superbowls, and defense wins nba championships. sure there's some truth to all those, but do the brewers and cubs really have elite starting pitching??? i'm not one to complain much about lack of nationwide respect, but shouldnt there be some soul out there who will give us some credit as having potentially the best lineup in the league and mention us as a wild card to compete for the division?
To predicting success, yes. I think hitting is a lot sexier for the highlight portion of television media, but I agree with the above poster that in the last five years, media types have consistently predicted teams centered around pitching and/or defense to win. Good examples (different sport, mind you) are the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers -- for the last four or five years, they've been the preseason media darlings based on their defenses. For the most part, it doesn't work out that way. There's some truth to winning through defense, sure, but there are other methods to building a team as well. It's amazing to say this given the market they play in, but last year's Phillies (and several Philly teams in recent years) are good examples of very quality yet overlooked teams based on the style in which they play. San Diego is an example of the opposite. I'd argue the Phillies have had similar success relative to the Padres in recent years (total playoff appearances notwithstanding, look at wins, etc.) yet the latter gets far more predicted success -- even in a much smaller market -- based on the strength of their pitching. Last season's Rockies are another good example -- most national analysts counted them out even mid-season based on a history of poor pitching and a hitter's park. They also didn't have a huge infusion of hot prospects contributing to the late run, making them less sexy to the baseball insider types. Basically, a very good yet established lineup got hot at the right time, and a mediocre pitching staff did enough to keep them in games. It's not the traditional formula to win a pennant -- thus why most folks counted them out -- but it can work. That's not to diminish starting pitching -- I certainly wish the Astros had more of it and it might be the easiest way to win in baseball. But it's not the only way to win, as the media in recent years has seemingly decided.
I don't think you're giving the Rockies pitching staff the credit they deserved. Corrected for park effects, the Rocks had the 3rd best ERA in the NL last season, while their offense finished with the 6th-best OPS+ (which, again, is corrected for the Mile High park effects). Their bullpen was probably the best in the NL. IMO, their pitching was the key to their season.
i think it's more they (rightly) don't agree with your assessment. milwaukee's line-up is clearly better; chicago's line-up is clearly better; cincinnatti's line-up is on par. i'm VERY nervous about this team, and i think far too many are taking far too much for granted. i don't think we can assume berkman will definitely bounce back - he's 32. it's not inconceivable that last year was simply the beginning of the end. tejada, probably more so, is in the same boat. neither was hurt or injured; they simply slipped - one year abberration? both of them? highly unlikely. meanwhile, pence, towles and bourn are all unknowns, especially the later two. and as much as matsui is PROBABLY an upgrade over biggio... check out his OPS+ his first 4 years: 88, 72, 74, 87 (only because he posted a 120 in colorado; he was a 31 (!) in NY). those are all WELL below average. biggio finished 84 and 71 in his final two years. the only sure things are lee and wiggington, but they, too, are into their 30s... so while they may repeat last year's performances... i doubt they'll improve and the smart money would be on them both regressing just a bit (if you had to wager). when you throw-in (likely) sub-par pitching and (likely) sub-par defense, i don't see how, on paper, you can be overly optimistic about this team if you're looking at it objectively. of course, if everything works out OK, then they'll be dangerous. but still not a better line-up than milwaukee.
sorry, i cleared it up and said "possibly the best" in following post. can't agree with you that the cubbie's lineup is clearly better though. i think lance slumped at the beginning of the season, but then got back on track in latter portion. i believe tejada will bounce back. he's looked great in the preseason. i think our lineup's a great mix of established veterans and high-potentialed youth. oh well, the great unknown is what makes it exciting, ain't it?
