That was definitely true in his rookie season, but they've gone away from that approach for the past two years. Surprisingly, his best lineup spot for all three seasons has been batting 8th. He's hitting .320 / .384 / .490 in a decent sample size. I'd slot him there to begin the season.
The Astros could afford to do that when they had Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. They don’t have all three anymore. Espada has to maximize Peña’s production, or you are looking at five quality hitters and a lineup that drops off significantly after that. If the Astros had more depth in their lineup, I’d consider it, but Peña is one of their six best hitters. Also, stats and analytics are wonderful tools, but you have to combine them with what you know about a player. The Astros need a big offensive season from Jeremy Peña to help alleviate the loss in production from Kyle Tucker. Peña’s strength is hitting fastballs. His weakness is any breaking pitch low and away. As a manager, you need to place him where he will see the most fastballs and the fewest low-and away breaking pitches. On this team, that’s between Altuve and Alvarez. If the lineup was deeper, you could hit him ninth in front of the top of the order. I just don’t think the lineup has enough depth to justify hitting Peña ninth against right-handed starters.
I’d be fine with this because it still ensures he hits right behind the heart of the Astros’ order, and the hope would be he sees more fastballs and fewer sliders as teams don’t want to put him on base in front of Altuve and Alvarez.
Pena also offers pretty good speed and had 20 SB last season. That might help Altuve if he’s coming up a bunch with Pena on 1B.
It helps any good hitter to hit with runners on base because pitchers are trying to avoid a big inning. Therefore, the good hitter will see better pitches to hit.
The magic fairy dust on Pena in the 2 hole ran out in the middle of 2023. He was mediocre in the second half, and terrible in what time he got last season hitting second. Batting order position has no impact on productivity, data has shown that consistently. If putting a good fastball hitter between 2 good hitters actually correlated to noticeably improved results more teams would do it.
Yep, people always talk about protection being the guys behind a hitter, but having men on and no outs is much better protection for a hitter than noone on and 2 outs.
I'm not 100% sure on this, but putting a weaker hitter between good hitters tends to help the weaker hitter some. The problem is that putting 3 great hitters back to back to back is better than helping a weaker hitter hit slightly better.
The term "one of their six best hitters" is misleading the way you phrase it. They have 5 really good hitters, and then a big drop off. If you are just trying to maximize ABs for your good hitters, you put him in the bottom third where he belongs. He was our 7th best (or third worst) hitter last season among the regulars, ahead of just Meyers and Dubon. Bench guys like Caratini, Gamel, Heyward and Salazar were all better. If I thought he'd magically return to 2022 playoffs Pena in the 2 hole, I'd endorse it. But I don't think that's true. I think that lineup protection has been shown statistically to not really matter. If Pena swings at bad breaking pitches, he's going to get a diet of those in the 2 hole or the 7 hole. Because he won't lay off them. He barely ever walks, even though everyone knows that's what's coming. He needs to fix that, himself, if he wants to be the Costco version of Correa. Right now, he's a bottom 3rd hitter against righties who might be a top of the order candidate against lefties (but our whole lineup vs lefties is very good).
The bottom line is that Pena is a defensive player, not an offensive one Putting Pena in the #2 hole may help make him a little better. But it also reduces PAs and opportunities of the guys who are actually plus offensive players like Paredes, Walker, and/or Diaz by sliding them down in the order. To me the #2 hitter must be Paredes because he actually takes pitches and allows Yordan the chance to see the pitcher more before stepping in. It's always going to be about what is best for Yordan.
Pena is a MLB Top 5 offensive SS against LHP (wRC+ 132 on par with guys like Correa, Tatis, Bogaerts, Turner, and Lindor). He is one of the worst everyday SS in the league against RHP (wRC+ 88 grouped with guys like IKF, Perdomo, and Jose Iglesias). Basically depending on who is on the opposing mound, he’s either an MVP candidate or a guy barely hanging on to his job.
Pena is a career .307 on base guy. I realize it may look a little better when he bats 2nd, in front of Yordan, but it would for anyone. Gotta get closer to .350 to be a legit 2 hitter and I think this becomes more important when there is a wild swinger like Altuve batting 1st. Somebody in front of Yordan has to get on base consistently. Altuve’s on base % took a pretty big hit last year. That trend might continue for him at 35.
2 is the new 3. everyone knows that! I just heard the other day on sportsmap that Yordan requested to bat in the same spot everyday and that he prefers the 3 hole. So, I would slot him there. Just Altuve in front of him might not be enough rbi opps.
Thinking about this further, I wonder if Shay Whitcomb or Luis Guillorme might be a good fit for the 13th man to play SS against RHP to make Pena a more effective player. If Pena gets 525 pa instead of 675, and the difference is he sees less RHP, maybe he’s a 120 wRC+ guy instead of a league average guy. That works if Guillorme or Whitcomb post a league average line against righties. Guilllmore is league average against righties for his career and Whitcomb posted a 110 wRC+ against righties in a very small big league sample last season. Altering my lineup/roster hope: LF Altuve DH Alvarez 1B Walker 3B Paredes C Diaz (Caratini gets 50 games) OF McCormick (Whitcomb gets 30 games against RHP) SS Pena (Whitcomb gets 30 games against RHP) OF Gamel/Meyers platoon 2B Guillorme/Dubon platoon Bench: Caratini, Whitcomb
There's no world that I want Whitcomb to play an inning of SS. Can Whitcomb play RF? He's got a good arm.
It's a mentality and a common issue you see with fans who put too many emotions into their decision making instead of calculated reasoning. The whole point is running down marquee talent is not working for the small market Stros. So you start shopping him early , especially when anyone who's watched the Astros the past 2 seasons can see they haven't had it. It's been thoroughly underwhelming. Be ahead of the curve like Luhnow, don't let the Mets and Soto dictate when you shop a player.
