8 games in winter ball isn't exactly much exposure. Let's give him extended run in spring training and see how he does out there.
Diaz, Caratini, Walker, Altuve, Pena, Paredes, Dubon, and Alvarez are guaranteed roster spots That's 8 of 13 spots and all catching and infield positions are 2 deep. 3 of those (w/ Altuve) play LF so no need to identify that position as needed. 5 open spots and CF and RF need to be filled and the roster is short on LH bats. Candidates: Chas McCormick= LF/CF/RF - RH - 3 options Jake Meyers = CF - RH - 2 options Ben Gamel = LF/RF - LH - no options Taylor Trammell = CF/LF/RF - LH - no options Zach Dezenzo = 1b/LF/3b/RF - RH - 2 options Jon Singleton = 1b/DH - LH - no options Cooper Hummel = LF/RF(1b/c) - both-no options Pedro Leon = RF/CF/LF(2b) - RH - 3 options Shay Whitcomb = 3b/1b/LF(2b/ss) = RH- 3 options Cesar Salazar = c(2b) - LH - 1 option Kenedy Corona = CF/LF/RF - RH - 3 options not on 40 Jacob Melton = CF/RF/LF - LH - 3 options Quincy Hamilton = RF/LF/CF - LH - 3 options Luis Guillorme = 2b/3b/ss - LH - no options Jesus Bastidas = 2b/ss/3b - RH - 3 options Zach Short = 2b/3b/ss - RH - no options Brice Matthews = ss/2b/3b - RH - 3 options Tommy Sacco Jr = ss/3b/2b - both - 3 options Cam Smith = 3b(1b/RF/LF) - RH - 3 options
They Astros player development guys work with the Astros players a lot. I will trust them and their opinion on whether someone can or cannot play a position, especially corner outfield. He has been working off and on with the Astros player development staff since 2022 in the outfield. I understand the caution - but I am far more concerned about the bat that whether he can be an adequate corner outfielder. He is a solid athlete; he is not a plodder and his arm is solid. As long as he can read the ball off the bat, he is fine.
Melton was fine (.792 OPS) against righties but terrible (.597) against lefties. Those are splits between AA/AAA, so you have to discount that a bit against major league pitching. Is the mid- to low-.700s projected OPS against righties expected production good enough to platoon near the bottom of this lineup? It might be. I'd like to see him develop any power at all against lefties in the minors, but this feels like an all hands on deck emergency situation in the OF against RHP. You just can't let him hit against any LHP.
There seems to be this underlying belief that with physical ability that he will just figure it out in the big leagues as a hitter. I have never been a fan of that attitude or belief. There have been guys that have done that, but they are the minority. At some point the fact that he is 24 years old, and has a career minor league OPS of below .800 has to carry some weight. Yeah - he is very fast, he can hit some tape measure homers, he has a strong arm and can play a good centerfield.... but he doesn't draw a lot of walks, he doesn't really have great instincts as a hitter and he cannot hit lefties to save his life. I think very highly of Dana Brown as a scout - and he has a proven track record, but we are accumulating a lot of these guys that have a lot of skills but actual hitting abilities don't seem to be part of the package.... Matthews is another one, superstar bat speed but seems completely unable to read a pitch at all.
I really really wish the team would trade Caratini. He is coming off of a much better than expected and projected season, indicating a letdown is likely. With Walker an everyday starter and Yordan playing less LF, Diaz will need to catch when he plays leaving only backup catcher playing time for Caratini. For a roster spot that projects for less than 50 games played, $6M is expensive. As an average + veteran backup catcher he has trade value and this team still has holes/needs. He is a FA after the season anyway and does not project as a guy who is important to extend. Salazar is down to 1 option which will be used at some point this year. This is the season they need to see enough playing time to determine if he can be a legitimate backup for the next 4+ years. I see Tom Murphy is hurt (again/still) maybe a trade of Caratini for Mike Yastrzemski would help both teams?
Yeah- you have just laid out why I hate melton as a top prospect and most everyone else on the system. I like hit tool more than anything else, think it’s by far the most important tool, and the Astros just don’t seem to care. I understand the reason for that but don’t like it.
I’m fine with trading Caratini for all the reasons you said. on the pod I said I’d be ecstatic with 100 ops, was expecting 90 and won’t be surprised if it’s 80. I’d sell high.
I would be more dismissive if Brown hadn't proven himself as an exceptional talent evaluator over multiple organizations. Having said that, I view it much the way you do -
I'm hoping a catcher on another team goes down and Caratini will be traded for a good young MLB ready OF.
How does Chas look? I'm hoping last season was an aberration. Watching the short video of him in batting practice didn't give me hope. His swing was not very smooth. That being said, if he goes back to 2023 Chas, our lineup looks pretty good. Just one of the following has to show something by the end of the season for this team to in good position. Chas, Dezenzo, Melton, Brice.
It is really so hard to tell. He has been polarizing within the organization. He almost made the playoff roster the year before he made his MLB debut because of how the player development guys viewed him. At the same time, there have been others that believed he is short of talent and was due for a regression last year.... there has been a lack of real buzz around him this season, but I think he certainly deserves another chance to produce. He is another Astros guy that really has to struggle to hit, he has pulled it out in the past for sure... but like Pena, he has holes in his ability to recognize pitches and react.... same with Meyers as well.
I saw an article about the Twins playing Harrison Bader in LF in the short side of a platoon. I looked into Bader and it’s very interesting how similar he is to Jake Meyers. In fact, Meyers has been a better hitter than Bader against LHP in their careers. I think against LHP Meyers is probabiy one of the 10 best all-around CF in baseball. But he is pretty much unplayable against RHP.
Meyers is one of a number of players on the Astros that have value and can do somethings well - but are being potentially over exposed. Meyers is at worse a 10-year vet 4th outfielder that can poach starts against lefties. That is what he is best at. We have tried him at a larger role, and while it hasn't been a complete failure - it has clearly been a situation where the Astros have been left wanting more. Maurico Dubon is another player like that.... Caratini and Chas McCormick.... Singleton... and I would argue even Hader.... these guys have all been asked to do things beyond what they should because the Astros have holes to fill.
That’s exactly sort of my point. All you have to do is match those guys holes up with the other guys holes to make a complete position. It’s why I wanted winker. He and Jake become an all star level player. If Yordan can play enough OF for singleton to be Jake’s platoon partner that’s a really solid spot of production. Or- if Dezenzo is a 125 or 130 guy against RHP. Or melton. Or Gamel. Lots of potential answers. So many, honestly, that I’d expect it to work out and fit.
Among players whose primary position was CF with >130 pa against LHP last season, Meyers had the 3rd highest wRC+ in the league, behind 2 players who are really best suited to play RF (Judge and Lane Thomas). So when you consider defense, it’s fair to say that Meyers was easily one of the top 5 CF in the league against LHP last year.
Only so many platoon spots, though. 9 starters. Need a UI who can play anywhere (Dubon). Need a backup C (Caratini). That leaves 2 spots to platoon at.
