Agreed. He also started out strong last season in the midst of all the hoopla about the Mitchell report. He just couldn't sustain it for whatever reason. Any struggles Tejada had last season and any he may have this season probably have nothing to do with him being distracted. In fact, I think those off the field issues may actually motivate him to play better, feeling like he has something to prove. If the latter is true, I'm hoping for more controversy.
There is zero chance that Bogusevic makes the club tis year. He needs some time at AAA. Abercrombie is hitting for a very good average this spring. He has impressed with his bat. At the major league level, he has shown power and speed. In short, I disagree completely with your assessment.
I agree that he'll be in AAA, but he could get a call up this year if he does well. You don't get 124AB at the AA level and then go straight to the majors. Not to mention the Astros bring players up slowly through the system. Granted that could be because our system just doesn't have any great young talent.
I love Backe, but with the constant injuries, and him sucking all last year with Russ Ortiz looking ok, we probably should have cut ties with him. Its Drayton's money though, and maybe he just likes the guy.
Abercrombie played well during his short stint with the Astros at the end of last year. He's got power, speed and has hit for average at AAA (.323 with 17 HR in '07) Bogusevic has promise and is a good prospect for a call up later in the year, but I think Abercrombie gets some spot starts and a ph/pr role at the start of the season.
Abercrombie is and has always been an amazing strikeout machine even at AAA. Last year in Houston he struck out in more than 40%(!) of his at bats with a 1/23 BB/K ratio. It is a flaw that he is unable to fix, and the reason that the Marlins let him go. That is the #1 sign that he will never be anything more than a 5th outfielder. I have trouble thinking that the Astros would not see such an obvious and historically proven correlation between AAA strikeouts and inability to preform at the next level.
Yeah...because Bourn is so much better. An aging Darrin Erstad isn't going to be a 120 game a year answer either.
You have much better odds with either of those two. It makes no sense to take the everyday job away from a could-have-been and give it to a never-was. That would be just change for change's sake, and not even a lateral move, but a step back. If you want to make a change and give up on Bourne, you should actually have someone that has a real chance to be a MLB everyday player.
Taking the job from a .200 hitter with little power and giving it to a likely .240 hitter with demonstrated power is not a step back. Bourn is hitting .219 this spring. Abercrombie is hitting .371. I doubt he is striking out 40% of the time with a .371 average. Abercrombie has stuck out 123 times in 386 career ABs, so that is 31%...not 40%. He has a career fielding % of .979.
In AAA for the Marlins? Reggie Abercrombie struck out 95 times in 353 AB's for a total of 26%. That's the same % as Sammy Sosa when he hit 64 HR in 2001 and less than Mike Schmidt when he hit 40 in '83 with an almost .400 OBP. And the list could go on and on and on with HOF's and good players. Fact is, Abercrombie has played well and has speed and power. He himself had an over .360 OBP in AAA for the Marlins. He certainly does not strike out 40% of the time .
Spring training statistics? You are going to base who gets a job on who's done better in the span of 35 ABs taken in meaningless games? Abercrombie has a .223 batting average in 386 Major League at-bats. He's 28 years old. 28 years old is not a prospect, that's not an age where someone all of a sudden becomes a good baseball player. He'll turn 29 halfway through this season. He's a career .301 OBP through 3,224 minor league at-bats. He's not going to all of a sudden get on base. Bourn was terrible last season. I'm firmly of the belief that he was terrible. He's also 2 1/2 years younger than Abercrombie. He has a higher career batting average, stolen base rate and percentage, and OBP. He's a career .377 OBP in 1552 minor league at-bats, all accumulated before his 24th birthday. I'm not saying that he'll necessarily develop into a .377 on base guy in the bigs, but the ability to take walks is one of the most translatable skills. It just requires a good eye for the strike zone. Add that to his ability to steal bases at a good clip (career 85% in the minors, 82% in the bigs) and he could become an outstanding leadoff hitter. The debate is silly. There is zero chance Reggie Abercrombie develops at this point into anything more than a 5th outfielder. He possesses little power, moderate speed, and poor strike zone judgment. A legitimate prospect could displace Bourn as the everyday CF; heck, the mediocre and ancient Darren Erstad could wind up there. But Abercrombie is worse than mediocre, and he's no threat to Bourn, even after the worst season of Bourn's professional career.
Again, in 2007 at AAA in 353 AB's Abercrombie had a .323 AVG, .361 OBP, 17 HR and 41 SB at the age of 25. That is a great season. In 2008 he hit .309 for the Astros during a September call up. Reggie is 27 years old for the record.
Actually, if you really crunch his numbers from Rookie ball through the minors, Abercrombie has shown a steady, steady, gradual improvement since he was 18 years old. He grew up in the Dodger farm system. Other than '04 when start the season poorly at AA and played the second half for The Arizona D-backs in A+ (high A ball) and completely tore it up. Picked up by the Marlins to start the 2005 season in A+ then AA, he had 25 HR and 26 SB in 476 AB's with a .316 OBP and avg. around .267 His growth was hindered in 2006 when the Florida Marlins rushed Abercrombie from AA to the major league club at the age of 24. He spent the whole year as a reserve and hit .212 with only 5 HR in 255 AB's. The next year at 25 years of age in '07 in AAA, Reggie Abercrombie had a monster season with a .323 AVG. .361 OBP 17 HR and 41 Stolen bases in 353 AB !!! That is why the Astros were excited to get him in '08 where he hit .309 in a September call up. His numbers projected over 600 AB's were 25-30 HR and 40-45 stolen bases in AAA at Round Rock. His batting average of .273 would have probably picked up like it did with the Astros where, again, he hit .309 with 2 HR (one of them a monster shot) and 5 Stolen bases. Reggie will chance a chance to play outfielder for the Houston Astros in 2009. Reggie Abercrombie is a good prospect to keep improving, perhaps having a great season at the age of 27 in MLB.
At Albuquerque. In the PCL. In a league of Coors Fields, that is the league's Coors Field. He was never a top prospect of the Dodgers, Marlins, or Diamondbacks. All three let him go for nothing. People aren't 'rushed' to the majors at 25 years old after 6 minor league seasons. You can't just make up the story of his career by adding numbers and connecting the dots in whatever way you like. Well, I guess you can, but it is a complete fantasy, just like the dream of Reggie Abercrombie the every day major leaguer.
My stats site (baseball-reference) had the birth year wrong for some reason. So my reference to his age was an honest mistake on my part. Your use of stats, on the other hand, is intentionally deceptive. The .361 OBP in the minors in 2007 shows up as a huge outlier in his career. Nowhere else in the minors or majors did he ever have an OBP exceeding .316 for a full season. The ridiculous numbers in the PCL at Albuquerque have been discussed by Ottoman, btw. Reggie's "monster season" was actually the 4th best on that team, that season. In 2008, his numbers dropped down to his career averages, again. He somehow hit .273 and still had an OBP under .300 at Round Rock, because he drew 9 walks in almost 300 abs. That continued a career pattern in which Abercrombie has never drawn more than 27 walks in a season. Your "projections per 600 ab" numbers are a little off. Using the RR stats and my ability to use a calculator, he projected to 25 HR, 35 SB. Using the Houston stats along with RR, you get a projection of 24 HR, 38 SB. Using either stat, you get a projection of either 193 strikeouts (just RR) or 202 strikeouts (combining his full season) per 600 ABs. Either of which would be one of the top strikeout seasons in major league history (the record being 204). Bottom line, the decent 24-25 HR power potential just isn't enough to account for a rate of strikeouts that would make Adam Dunn blush. And Dunn takes walks, and hits 40 home runs every year.
Newhan was released and made a somewhat interesting comment about the situation: "The only way Coop's really communicated is through you guys [reporters]. I'm not blind. It's just unfortunate ... they talked about having a shortstop the whole time. I wish I had gotten a chance to at least screw that up. I never really got that opportunity." Newhan originally thought he would get a look at shortstop, until he read an article on MLB.com that quoted Cooper saying Newhan was seventh in the pecking order of potential shortstops. Cooper also indicated in that article that Newhan likely would not see playing time at short this spring. http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/...t_id=4083918&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou ************************************* And Berkman's shoulder issue appears to be a little more serious than they thought it was initially: To illustrate how much his shoulder hurts, Lance Berkman straightened out his left arm so that it was parallel to the floor and said, "This is about as far as I can get my arm up." Frankly, hearing Berkman talk about his injury gives little cause for optimism. "It's not a pending surgery," Berkman began, "but let me say this -- it's more painful and worse than I initially thought." Berkman first irritated his shoulder early in the spring, and apparently a number of recent events aggravated the injury, beginning with a diving play on a Chase Utley grounder on Friday, when the Phillies were in town. After Berkman took several swings in the batting cage, batting right-handed, the switch-hitter's condition grew worse. He doesn't know exactly how long he'll be out, but it's likely he'll miss at least the next couple of exhibition games. "I don't think it'll bother me to hit, but it's hard to throw," Berkman said. "Because of that, since we're still on the [exhibition] schedule ... then there's no reason for me to go out there and make it linger." Asked if he thinks he'll be ready by Opening Day, Berkman didn't hesitate. "Oh, yeah, I do," Berkman said. "It's probably a little better than it was [Saturday], and if I have to, I'll get a shot -- they'll give me a cortisone shot, and it'll knock it out pretty quick. We're going to try not to do that and just see if a couple days letting it rest is going to be good enough." Berkman met with a team doctor Sunday morning but doesn't think he'll have to undergo an MRI. "He thinks that because it's a bicep, not like a classic rotator cuff tear ... it's more in the front," Berkman said. "I'd like to put my arm over my head without too much pain." http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/...t_id=4084000&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou
Oh come on...he led his team in batting with a .323 avg. and was second in the league in steals with 41 SB. Then, you get out the calculator to say his '08 season doesn't project to 25 HR and 40 SB, but 25 HR and 38 SB And, yes, some players are ready for the majors at 24. Some are ready at 25 or 26. At 24, Reggie Abercrombie should have started the season at AAA, but was rushed up to the big club by the Florida Marlins. I guess we'll just have to disagree as to how decent of a ballplayer Reggie Abercrombie is or whether or not he is a prospect at all. His '07 and '08, his .309 in September with the Astros and .371 this spring say that, at the very least, he'll be given a spot on the club and a chance to contribute to the team.
As much as you and I have disagreed on many things, we agree completely on this topic. Abercrombie impressed in his callup and has continued that trend in ST. It isn't just ST...it is the upward trend that ST is further evidence of.
Most people who follow the Astros agree that he'll start the season at AAA with Michaels as the 5th OF.
