Someone call Roger Clemens and see if he wants 1st base. Even at his age I promise he’d make better contact than whatever corpse of a player we’re trotting out there currently.
Looking at his statcast numbers, his pitches do not move more than average. The changeup actually has less horizontal movement than most. He's obviously locating them well, and Diaz has been calling really good games for him to keep pitchers off balance. The pitch isn't special in itself. It's just special since it looks exactly like his fastball up to the point it drops and the fact that it comes in almost 9 mph slower. It causes lots of ground balls which is the biggest difference for Blanco this season. His groundball rate went from 25 percent in 2022 to 35 in 2023 to almost 48 percent this season. That is because of the changeup. Hitters are swinging over the ball. For reference, there is only a 4 mph difference between Framber's fastball and changeup. I'm also wondering if they worked on his arm slot at all to make his pitches look different. Nook said the staff has been working with him after Brown made the decision to make him a starter after last spring practice.
There are 13 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 changeups so far this season - Logan Webb has thrown the most at 104 (didn't know he threw a change that much). Of those pitchers, Ronel Blanco's changeup has the lowest xwOBA at a smooth 0.091 with 64 changeups accounted for from him by Savant.
But it moves (insert George Costnaza meme)... that's about as "special" as any changeup can get. Yes, most of the deception is based on the speed... but changeups that don't move get clobbered (mostly by guys like Yordan), regardless of their speed difference. Like you, I am definitely worried about what happens when teams truly go looking for it... he still needs to be able to spot it (as he is), but could also see him having more walks in general as teams breakdown more data on him. But if the pitch is hard to square up based on some movement... then we still could see positive results in terms of groundballs, etc. as you've highlighted (good job verifying stat cast... I'm just sitting here rubbing two sticks together and doing eyeball tests).
I'm saying that his statcast numbers shows that his changeup moves less than 2 percent more than other people's changeup. The movement isn't fooling anyone on it's own.
the increased groundball rates and expected batting average against suggest that it does play some role... but agreed, its not some magical pitch that can be thrown every single time and still get positive results (like a really good knuckleball). But it does need to move some to avoid getting crushed when hitters go up there to solely look for it. As I said above, my biggest concern is his ability to spot it... which he's had little trouble doing thus far.
Even when he pitches right in the middle of the zone, people have been laying off of it because it looks like his fastball above the zone. My point is the changeup is only as good as how close it looks to the fastball coming towards the plate. We will see if he can keep it going once teams figure out his tendencies more.
Agreed... as most singular pitches (other than elite knuckleballs) are useless without the threat of a secondary pitch. But even when a hitter "guesses" right, there's still a less than 50% chance they actually do something with that pitch. Movement is what will be required to ensure less barrels in those situations.
A win today would be good for momentum going forward. Lose a series, win a series, split a series. All told, not the worst start ever. Go Stros.
The obsession Astros fans have with Maldy/Dusty being the root of all evil/badness is certifiably pathological at this point. (unless Diaz told him to throw the changeup more LAST season... and Maldy/Dusty overruled him).
It is even worse than that and I will explain why. First, I will preface this by saying that it is a very small sample size, and it is possible that Abreu breaks out of this. Having said that - the duo of Abreu and Singleton is dumb for a few reasons IMO. First, neither runs well or defends well. Second, neither has great bat speed either. Third - while there were limited high end options available, the Astros had guys on the cheap that could have helped them at 1st this off season. Garrett Cooper was available as a free agent at the minimum. Jared Walsh has been up and down in his career, but he was also available and like Cooper he can play the outfield and 1st base. Brandon Belt is still unsigned and even guys like CJ Cron and Joey Votto signed minor league deals. Maybe Belt wants 5+ million a year and that is why the Astros passed, but otherwise, there is no real excuse to not have signed him. Even Walsh (who has been up and down) was available to sign with 3 more years of control. The loyalty to Singleton is something I find odd. I know he is well liked in the clubhouse, and I know pinch hitting is hard - but Singleton just doesn't bring anything but his bat, and even that is iffy.
Rookie Wyatt Langford is playing for the Rangers, Joey Loperfido should start playing for the Stros no matter how bad his strikeouts are. #99 Yankees had a very bad strikeout ratio when he came out for the Spankees. No way we should keeping Abreu when he can't hit in the regular season.
They're not going to bring up Joey to be a spot starter or PH option. And they're not going to DFA Abreu this early in the season. Its going to take an injury/IL stint to him or continued sub-par production through June to force a change. Singleton is just roster filler at this point. Ideally they'd have a better veteran/street free agent in that role... or Caratini/Diaz will eventually get some spot starts there. But certainly glad to see that Singleton/Abreu has become this year's Dusty/Maldy.
It depends on HOW good it is. There are some pitchers that it doesn't matter if the hitter knows the change up is coming. Examples are Tom Glavine, Trevor Hoffman, Jose Lima, Pedro Martinez, Luis Castillo, Kyle Hendricks. Location is key with the change up - and it is a good fit with Blanco, because it only makes his fastball look better. I don't know that Blanco has THAT type of command of the change up yet. He was throwing a lot outside the zone, but my understanding is that was done to set up hitters - sometimes for another change up down in the zone or a fastball at the belt.
