I would respectfully disagree with you. I think Luhnow and the front office were quite realistic, and understood that this team is NOT one or two pieces away from sustained success, so they prudently scoured the trade market, but stalled to overpay for one or two pieces. I do hope that sputtering to the finish line will bring some humility to both the players and the front office, and drive them to have a better offseason, and be ready for next year. The slow start this year indicates that they might have gotten a little comfortable or complacent, and they very well could have let the national love for them get in their heads. They have a good nucleus, but they still have a ways to go if they want to make that ascension to the next level. This front office (and the prior one) helped assemble this very solid nucleus, so I have confidence that they can add to it, and compile a deeper, more talented 25 man roster as early as next year.
So how the heck will they ever get to the next level? You're describing a regime that's waiting for everything to magically fall in their hands and/or kicking the can down the road.
So, is Sport's Illustrated closing their doors? They seriously screwed the pooch on that prediction. Couldn't have been more wrong.
That's a very good question, and unfortunately I don't have a great answer. In a perfect world, if I am playing armchair GM, I add an ace this offseason. I thinking starters of the ilk of Chris Sale, Jose Fernandez, or even Chris Archer. Unfortunately, I don't think any of those respective teams are going to make those guys available, so none of those seem feasible. So I will sit here and complain about the projected rotation for next year of: Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Musgrove, and Fiers, but unfortunately, I don't see many options available to add that legitimate ace. So it looks like we are stuck with a mediocre (to maybe solid if Keuchel and McHugh improve next year) rotation. But in a perfect world, adding an ace drops everyone down (and bumps Fiers out of the rotation completely), which would make me MUCH more comfortable. So if adding to our pitching is not going to be a feasible option (at least in my humble opinion), we should make our everyday offensive lineup as deep and as talented as possible. Right now our 6-9 hitters are garbage, and the 2nd half of the lineup has been garbage for much of the year. That is simply unacceptable. Remember when we were giving away automatic outs with Ausmus, Everett, and the pitcher? This is WAY worse in my opinion. The good news is that Reed and Bregman are showing that they have real talent at the plate, so that is encouraging. We are hoping Gurriel will bring professional at bats day in and day out, and that should help too (I am thinking a full offseason for him will do wonders, let things settle down, get accustomed here, and just focus on playing baseball). But that's not enough. We will need to add one or two legitimate bats to this team, and then we could honestly run out a very solid to great everyday lineup 1-9. We have the prospect currency to make a big trade happen. We also have a lot of money that we can, and should, spend on quality big leaguers. There is no reason that we cannot make the bold moves necessary to make the leap.
This is the crux of the conversation between myself, the Beard, and Hey Now over in the Gurriel thread.
Maybe, but I don't think there are a lot of quality veteran players that really want to be on the Astros. They see the Astros as a young team with potential but nowhere near having the right balance of young talent and proven veterans. Any trade is not going to work out if that player doesn't want to be here. If we trade away our young talent, then that player we are acquiring better want to be here for more than one season and re-sign if their contract is up. Else, they will just leave at the earliest opportunity even if they can help us in the short term. I honestly don't think there are a lot of quality veterans that want to be an Astro. Granted, sometimes they don't have a choice depending on if there is a no-trade clause in their contract or not. The fact is we're kind of stuck at the moment trying to build a winning team mostly from the farm system. And, that is just a drawn out process that doesn't guarantee successful results. It guarantees a lot of up-and-down baseball. Crane acts like he will make a big move and spend the money if the opportunity comes...but he hasn't and it hasn't. The fact is any of these established players probably do have no-trade clauses where they can deny a trade to a team they don't want to play for...or they just indicate that they prefer to go to another team and their team will try to accommodate them. For all the talent we have in our farm system and still no substantial trades for quality players to speak of (other than the Gomez/Fiers trade...which didn't turn out well), this is just a team minimizing payroll while trying to win with what they have. And, we took steps back this season from last season because many of those same players that made us successful last season are not giving us similar results this season. That's what I think anyway.
Thats about the gist of things. The only thing I would add is that luck will play a big part, meaning finding a team(s) that is selling, has a couple players worth buying, and likes what we have to offer in return.
OR, after finding a deal to obtain a quality pitcher, who you could slide into the #1 spot, the guy's wife decides she doesn't want to come to Houston. That's simply unfortunate, and the domino effect of that one vetoed deal could honestly be the turning point of both franchises for years to come. I hope not, and I would enjoy winning and having a more successful future (a lot out of spite), but it's quite possible.
The crux of where things are right now illustrate just how hard it is to get the one thing that contending teams need the most of... front-line starting pitching. Ideally, the best way is to develop it. They didn't realize what they had in Keuchel as he was a late bloomer. Perhaps others will take this route. LMJ certainly has the potential, but without health its an unknown. Musgrove looks decent but doesn't have the type of arm that screams workhorse/for-sure ace. Paulino/Martes still have some developing to do. I really think they should attempt to move Feliz into the rotation ASAP to figure out how his 2-3 + pitches translate, and whether or not he can be a viable candidate going into next year. He's stuck in limbo right now (not a back of the bullpen pitcher, not a starter), and he certainly has the stuff/arm that could be a huge difference-maker.
No. I was trying to make it easy. Some will still not get it I guess. Anyway, much more of the season spent playing poorly vs playing well. The 61-60 record is all that's left even with the 2 improbable win streaks against mostly lesser teams. Our record vs good teams reveals the truth about where we are too. Honestly, I think the record gets worse. Clearly, management has thrown in the towel now.
I think fans need to prepare for what might be a quiet winter, at least on the pitching front, because, unless they have a firm handle on his struggles, Keuchel is the 4,000,000,000,000 gorilla entering next season. How much can they lean on him having a bounce-back season? I have no idea. He is hurt? Worn down? Has the window closed? McCuller's health is an obviously huge mystery, as well - but, hopefully, they'll have a grasp of it by March of next year. Keuchel, though... unfortunately, you won't know until you know...
Regardless of these questions (which I agree, are among the most important), I expect the team to aggressively pursue a front-line starter mostly via the farm system. It may still be quiet, but I hope to hear some of the rumors..
There's a few more things they can try and work out prior to next season (regardless of how the rest of this season goes): 1. Start grooming Feliz. Get him some starts. Stretch out the arm. Its clear that's the direction they want him to go in... and presuming Giles doesn't fall-apart (again), and Gregerson/Harris stay healthy, he'll never really have a set/routine back of the bullpen role. 2. Continue to start Musgrove. Last night's drubbing he took should be a learning experience. Get enough innings to where there's a book on him and some team's start adjusting... forcing him to adjust back. 3. Once they're officially deemed out of it... shelve Keuchel. They're already sorta doing it with LMJ, regardless of how he's feeling. They're not going to throw him if they don't have a clear-cut shot at contending, and the same should be said for Keuchel. His stuff just isn't as sharp... whether its wear/tear or mental strain. Kluber had regression following his heavy work-load CYA last year (albeit, he was still a very good pitcher).
They will continue to hope and develop top line starters (Franklin Perez/Frances Martes) but they have tried to acquire them through trade. They were very hard at Cole Hamels and Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. I don't think they will have the finances to sign an ace as a free agent; so it will either be in the draft or trade. My guess is that they get an ace through trade this Winter.
If... and this is a giant, steaming pile of IF 2015 Keuchel and healthy Lance McCullers walk through the 2017 door... do they need a *frontline* starter? I sincerely don't know. If, at the end of this year, we have a solid reading on Gurriel/Reed/Hernandez/Kemp + Musgrove/Feliz/Hoyt (Martes?); if Bregman continues what looks to be his exciting development; and if we get a declarative bill of health on McCullers... Then I'll consider this year a misstep but an overall positive.
That's the plan... but as we've seen in each of the last two years, it takes two-to-tango with trades (and with FA's), and despite their best efforts, a lot of it could be out of their control (moreso if they're unwilling to part with some of their best prospects... I don't expect the price for pitching to be vastly less). Unfortunately... Luhnow's most recent MLB stint with the Cardinals featured a team/franchise that has really never gone out of its way to spend big FA money or commit huge trade pieces towards acquiring starting pitching. They've always just seemed to fall into it or develop it. For awhile there, the model was replicating itself (ending up with a CYA winner wasn't expected... McHugh coming out of nowhere wasn't expected).
If I could hug a post into unconsciousness, I'd do so with this one. Honestly, if they think he's going to be a factor next year, I'd shut Keuchel down and see what they have in Martes the rest of the way.
I will be shocked if Chris Sale or Jose Quintana are not dealt this off season. The White Sox intend to get a great deal for one or both of them, but were open to dealing one or both of them for the first time at the deadline. What may upset fans is that the player that the White Sox will want is Lance McCullers.
