Agree with this. And two years of Lucroy includes one year where we already have a serviceable catcher (i.e., Castro). While Lucroy would be an upgrade over Castro on paper, it's not inconceivable that Castro has a better year this coming year than Lucroy. I'd hate to see the Astros flip any high prospects (including Martes) for Lucroy. It will get more interesting next year. Do the Astros want to pay Castro the market rate for a free agent catcher? He'll probably want at least 3 years at $8M year (and more if he has a stellar year this year).
Lucroy wasn't better than Castro last year catching due to his injuries. Lucroy hasn't caught since his last concussion. There is a very real chance Lucroy will not be a catcher by the end of the season. Granted, I expect he'll start hitting again if he can stay healthy...something more likely if he was not catching.
What do you think would be a good deal for Luccroy? They are probably going to want 1 of the top rated pitchers. Another top 10-15 prospect. A lower level pitcher and a 3b/OF type from the Astros surplus of good young talent. Plus a wildcard like Singleton. I could see this trade happening, Feliz/Kyle Smith/Danry Vazquez/Singleton for Luccroy. I would bite my lip and do this deal.
I haven't heard anything linking the Astros to Alvarez. Doesn't mean that they won't sign him but he isn't someone that they have internally discussed ad nauseam like Upton, Cueto, Braun, Giles or Ross. The only real appeal I can see is that he is cheap and is an instant power option. He cannot adequately play third and is limited at first. I don't see him getting playing time over the other options available.
Stearns is former the Astros GM. I have a hard time seeing him settling for that hodge podge collection of prospects knowing his in-depth knowledge of the club. I'd do that trade every day of the week. Smith and Vasquez are C-level prospects at best. Smith is coming off Tommy John and didn't have super high upside to begin with and Vasquez passed through the Rule 5 draft without being claimed. Singleton is more failed prospect than not. Using your criteria, I could see him starting at Martes/Albert Abreu/Moran. And of course everyone would say 'no'.
Lucroy was diagnosed with a mild concussion after a tipped foul ball hit him. He didn't catch to finish the seasons last year, but the concussion occurred in September with less than a month left in the regular season. Further, he hit fine the last few weeks of the season when he came back. He has also caught some during the off season and intends to catch in 2016. The issue isn't whether he will catch again (he will), the question is whether or not he is prone to future concussions and missing time or needing a positional change. Concussions are a common problem for MLB catchers. The league changed the rule and now keeps count on concussions suffered by catchers. It comes out to about 25% of catchers suffered a concussion over the last few years. Buster Posey has had a couple for example. Short of a terrible injury, Castro is nothing close to the same player as Lucroy. I would give value for him and have a very careful review of his medical records and an examination. I consider Martes to be one of the 3-4 best pitching prospects in baseball so I would tread very carefully moving him. He has 2 elite level MLB pitches and a third that is already an above average MLB pitch. He is physically still adapting to his body, but his body control and repeatable mechanics are exceptional. I would do that deal easily, the only one I would possibly miss is Feliz. Michael Feliz has a lot of physical talent, but he has a high likelihood of becoming a late inning relief pitcher. His mechanics are also poor. I think the Astros would probably have to lose Feliz and another 10-12 ranked prospect.
Stearns familiarity with the Astros system does not figure into the "big name" players the Astros would need to front, but could mean he takes several younger players that he believes in. Stearns isn't getting Martes..... the Phillies tried for weeks and moved on to other names. As for Abreu, I haven't seen enough of him, but last year Oz was confident he had a chance to be really good.
Awesome! The exception that proves the rule.... It think that's my favorite non-Astros baseball moment.
Which is why I said by the end of the season. Brewers want him to catch as it will be more trade value. Lucroy wants to catch as baseball players want to do what they do, plus he would likely make more as a free agent in a couple of years. That said, getting injured is the biggest future indicator for getting injured. There is no guarantee he'll be as good a catcher defensively as he was 2 years ago.
If Lucroy can regain his 2012-2014 form, he's a bat that needs to be in the lineup everyday. An OPS over .800 obviously plays much better at catcher, but it plays anywhere. I've though all along that if you added LuCroy, playing him a lot at DH would be the best option the keep him fresh and healthy.
A number of catchers have had concussions the last few years and bounced back fine. I am not concerned he failed to catch the last three weeks of the season. There is no real strong reason to believe his defense will regress. Any injury can lead to future injury, but the idea that Lucroy will never catch again is remote based on his diagnosis, age and post concussion experience. Based on everything it is likely he is a behind the plate.
Likely is not the basis for my post. My post was based on it being inconceivable that Castro could be better than Lucroy. It is conceivable that Lucroy gets hurt and Castro is better.
From that standpoint it is not inconceivable that Jason Castro could have a better season than Mike Trout.
That is true, though that is a lot closer (i.e. <1% versus about 10-15%). I didn't set the bar at inconceivable. I am not the one that disagree that Castro could even reach that bar. I doubt a team trades for Lucroy until they see him in spring training unless a team get a good deal (not close to most of the proposed trades in this thread) considering Lucroy's underwhelming 2015 and coming off injury. Teams are generally reluctant to trade for a player until they see him play (both offense and defense) in an MLB game after an injury.
You do realize that Castro has had a better WAR than Lucroy 2 out of the last 3 years, right? Now I do think Lucroy is the better player, but Castro is no doubt serviceable. He's likely to get ~$25M contract next year from some team, and teams don't hand those contracts out to crappy players. And while I do expect Lucroy to have a better year than Castro, history suggests (as I mentioned above) that it's not inconceivable that Castro has a better year. And no, it wouldn't take a terrible injury to Lucroy to make that happen (see Castro and Lucroy stats from 2013).
