Moehler def wasnt garbage last season and Wandy was good at home. We just need another top of the rotation guy. I would think that we would have already had that guy come up out of our farm system by now, but just confirms what we already know...that our farm system sucks!
As crazy as this sounds, I have more faith in Backe bouncing back 2 years after TJ surgery than Moehler reproducing his performance as a starter last season. That doesn't mean I think Backe will be good, just the lesser of two evils. They will both suck and are both unworthy SPs. Combining Moehler's bullpen numbers with his numbers as a starter, he finished 2008 with a 4.56 ERA and gave up 20 HRs in 150 IP. His last season as a starter in Florida, before the Astros picked him up, he had a 6.57 ERA, .325 BAA and gave up 19 long balls in 122 IP. A guy with those numbers doesn't suddenly turn it around for good. I truly believe that resigning him and his career 4.77 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .293 BAA for $2-3 million was a mistake. Number one, he is not starting material no matter how lucky he got with his location last season. He simply has nothing to bail him out if he's not hitting his spots and given his career numbers, his control is not as good as it seemed to be last season. Number two, he's an old man who's not the next Jamie Moyer. We bought high on the guy and would have been better off not offering him an extension at all. You can find guys like Moehler on the scrap heap. He's a bad reliever, not a SP. The fact that Hampton, a guy who makes Kaz "The Fissure" Matsui look like Iron Man, is part of our projected rotation just adds to the mess. Wandy will be 30 on opening day and has only pitched over 150 innings once. His 137.1 IP last season was the second highest of his career. Yes, he's shown signs. The problem is he's not a prospect anymore. We keep waiting and waiting for him to put it all together... but it never happnes. He has a career 4.79 ERA (even worse than Moehler's) and there is plenty of evidence that he doesn't have the mettle to pitch deep into games. I swear I've seen his face turn pale white a few times before his typical middle inning collapses. Anything can happen but the odds are that Wandy will pitch < 150 innings and the 36 yr old Hampton (a year older now) will pitch < 100. I think it's reasonable to be pessimistic at this point given those odds. Tejada aged two years just weeks after we took him and his fat contract in then finished the season with his worst OBP and SLG numbers since 1998, his 2nd year in the league. He talked about resting during the winter in preparation for his "super season" next year. I'll believe it when I see it but I'm certainly not expecting it. Throw in the recession and the potential for league-worst hitting at C, 3B and in CF and yes, the "sky is falling" for the 2009 Astros. The only players that we can really count on for next season are Oswalt, Berkman, Lee and probably Valverde. I am also optimistic about Pence. I believe he will bounce back after the .269 AVG and .318 OBP he produced last year. It's unlikely that he'll match his first season but I refuse to doubt anybody that plays the game the way he does.
Go for it. I promise to be ashamed if I'm wrong. For now, the sky is falling. I will root for the Stros through thick n thin though, no matter how cyncial I get. My father was a Cleveland sports fan so I've learned from the best. By the way, what was I wrong about regarding the Astros last season? Are you talking about Moehler? If your pointing that out, I was also criticizing Backe and Chacon early in the season while many others were hyping them up. I actually had to dig those posts up once midway through the season.
looks like the yankees arent bringing pettitte back and he still wants to play. Think hes in for a second tour of houston?
i would honestly like to not have backe or moehler in our rotation next year, but im a realist and I realize its going to be roy/wandy/hampton/back/moehler probably. What Id like to see our manager do though is calculate which rotation is best to get wandy and backe the most home starts possible because as we all know backe feeds off the fans more than most pitchers in the game
This actually made me chuckle. I hope to get the chance. That would mean that our guys are doing well. Yup. IIRC, you were very critical of him when he joined the rotation.
I hope you get the chance, too. At least I'd be able to balance by shame with some happiness. You're right, I was critical of the move as well as shocked at how well and how consistently he was able to locate his pitches without getting hammered. For a couple months, he actually did look like Jamie Moyer. I still think it was a fluke. Let's hope I'm wrong but I can't get away from how I see it right now.
Backe's worse at home (6.16 ERA) than he is on the road (5.94 ERA). http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5215 Basically, he's terrible anywhere. There's no excuse not to give Hensley, or any prospect with a pulse, a shot in this rotation ahead of Backe. He's proven trash. Maybe he's fine as a mop-up reliever because the fans like him, but there's no point in running him out there every fifth day. You know what you're getting.
I would take Pettitte back as the #2 at this point IN A HEARTBEAT! Will pride get in the way? Moola? Andy's dream of opening the new Yankee Stadium TAKEN AWAY from him by the very franchise he so loves! Ouch.
Yeah .. I guess. I'm just sorta hoping for a miracle, & Drayton opens his billfold at the very last second.
In 2006 and 2007, Backe had an ERA of 3.77, that is well below the league average. Let's hope that he returns to form this season and that last season's awful performance was a result of him coming back too soon from his surgery.
Over ~40 innings. Completely statistically insignificant. As Bob Uecker would say, he leads the league in era at home against switchhitters on grass on Thursdays in July. His career home ERA is 4.50. His career home WHIP is 1.41. His career ERA overall is 5.09.
True. However, if you take last season out of the equation, he has a career ERA of about 4.50. That is league average. That would make him an average starting pitcher. A #3 or #4 is what he would be. Ironically, that is what Backe really is (assuming he rebounds after last season).
Yea. He has the potential to be servicable. It's just that those unbelievable playoff games raised unrealistic expectations. He probably can be servicable as a #5 or maybe in long relief.
He's one of those guys you just pull for. Nothing special, in way over his head, kind of a punk, hometown kid, had some hard knocks...
Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2009 All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for. 1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Good glove, should provide some power, not sure if he’ll hit enough to be a genuine star or just a solid player. 2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B-: Good plate discipline, should hit for average, but lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. However, you have to like the rapid adjustment he made, and the power may still come. 3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, but doesn’t change speeds well and seems better-suited to bullpen work than starting. 4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable young arm but will need time to develop. 5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: Another very projectable young arm and a local kid. For some reason I’m optimistic about him and Lyles. 6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: If healthy, could rank B- and ahead of Lyles and Seaton. Great stuff, but role and condition of arm are uncertain. 7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills. 8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hasn’t hit outside the Texas League. I’ve seen both Sutton and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools but Sutton is far more polished and skillful. 9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: Decent stuff and weird delivery, should be good middle reliever. 10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: Hard to grade. Scouting reports indicate a polished guy who could be a decent fourth/fifth starter or a good long reliever, but doesn’t have upside beyond that. 11) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Good power, some speed, but bad strike zone judgment will hold him back. 12) Sergio Perez, RHP, Grade C: Injured in regular season, but did well in Arizona Fall League. Could be fourth/fifth starter but might dominate more in the pen. 13) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: Average stuff but can throw strikes, fifth starter type. 14) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C: Good tools, power and speed, but very raw for a college guy, with major strike zone problems. 15) J.B. Shuck, OF, Grade C: Showed no power in college, but hit with authority in NY-P. Athletic, good plate discipline, more polished than Steele but not as much upside. 16) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Very toolsy high school kid, could not hit Appalachian League pitching but is young enough to improve. 17) Federico Hernandez, C, Grade C: Very good defensive catcher, bat may be questionable at higher levels but at least he makes some contact. 18) Leandro Cespedes, RHP, Grade C: Average stuff, but good K/BB and K/IP marks in the Sally League. Will this carry forward? 19) Phil Disher, 1B, Grade C: Monster numbers in the NY-P League, excellent power, but horrible glove and high strikeout rate limit his grade at this time. 20) Tim Torres, SS, Grade C: Older prospect, but has some skills and could be on the Drew Sutton sleeper path. Others: Fernando Abad, LHP; Douglas Arguello, LHP; Koby Clemens, C; Luis Cruz, LHP; Gilbert De La Vara, LHP; David Duncan, LHP; Brad Dydalewicz, LHP; Mitch Einertson, OF; Chris Hicks, RHP; Eli Iorg, OF; Brad James, RHP; Tommy Manzella, SS. As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa. SYSTEM IN BRIEF This is an extremely thin system right now, but the 2008 draft looks somewhat promising and they seem to be taking the need to rebuild more seriously. I think Castro is pretty solid, but I think there were other guys available in the draft who would make bigger impacts. It says a lot about the system that the number two hitter was a pitcher a year ago. Sutton looks like a good role player to me, but I’m not totally convinced about Chris Johnson yet. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton looks more likely to actually live up to his potential. 2008 outfield draftees Steele, Shuck, and Austin are all interesting, but for very different reasons. Pitching-wise, there are no definite impact guys right now. Norris has a lively arm but I have doubts about him as a starter. Lyles and Seaton could both be excellent, but they carry the risks typical for projectable young pitchers and won’t advance quickly. After that you have a bunch of fifth starter/reliever types. minorleagueball.com
I remember the days when the Astros offseason was actually an exciting time of the year, awwww the memories.
jesus that prospect list makes me wanna blow my brains out. is there another system in baseball whose #1 prospect starts at a "B"?
