I'll go ahead and agree with both your comparisons. Which is why I'd rather give the guy who has only had 1 full season to prove himself a little more time.. to juicy.. Willy being up and down and having a terrible year recently hardly proves that he's proven himself to be a worthy leadoff hitter.. at least not *definitively*, and again, that's what I'd want if you want to replace a guy who's only had 1 season.
There's not a single argument that you could make in Lee's defense ... none. Beltran is a better hitter, a better baserunner, and a much better defender at a much more valuable defensive position.
I agree that Beltran is the better overall player, obviously. But I disagree that he's the better hitter, considering Lee has had a higher OPS in each of the past two seasons.
A little disengenuious due to park factors. Using OPS+, Lee was a better hitter last year (but it's impossible to know if he could have maintained that production for 150+ games as it was by far his highest production level in his career), but the year prior they were identical. From 2004-2006, Beltran had the higher OPS+ four times. Interestingly enough, the fluctuations in their OPS+ are pretty similar. Career OPS+ wise, Beltran is slightly higher. Hitting talents only, I think you can make the argument for either one depending on what you need. Beltran has a better batting eye, but Lee aggressiveness works very well for him. However, as baseball players, there is no comparison. Beltran is an elite baserunner and defender while Lee is a poor fielder and an average baserunner.
It's really not that clear cut. Over the last 2 years, Lee has had a better OPS (though they were virtually identical in 2007). Over the last 5 years, Lee has had the better OPS 3 times; Beltran twice. Over their careers, Lee has slightly better AVG and SLG; Beltran has slightly better OBP and OPS. Of both their careers, Beltran's had the best overall year (2006), followed by Lee (2008) and then Beltran in 2004. But Beltran's also had the worst season (ignoring the first few seasons for each) - 2005. Overall, they are overall fairly similar hitters, with different strengths and roles. Lee is more consistent, Beltran has more ups and downs.
No, it is that clear cut. [RussianAccent]Carlos Lee is greatest player in all of world!!! Little feeble Carlos Beltran can not compare. [/RussianAccent] And on the other side, remember...there is "not a single argument you could make in Lee's defense."
That's a pretty convincing argument, but I disagree. From a hitting perspective, I think that they are similar in value, with Beltran having a slight edge. You have to adjust for park effects, like justtxyanks explained. Nowhere did I say that Beltran was a much better hitter, I said he's a much better player. When you factor in defense and speed, it's not even close.
I don't have to adjust for park effects. YOU have to adjust for park effects. Not me. Lee is a better hitter.
He is a proven player, and shown he is a capable starter, I will agree that he hasn't proven to be a leadoff hitter, at least not for a team with the kind of power on a roster like ours. I guess he could always be like Richard Hidalgo, although Hildalgo was much better in his good seasons. So I agree that it isn't definitive, because its possible he will only get worse. I said I was done, but I guess I wasn't.
Adjusting for parks is an imperfect science. Carlos Lee is el caballo. Thus, he's a better hitter. Plus, he's a better hitter.
http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2008/12/astros_reconsid.html How the Astros are dealing with a bad economy Major League Baseball is the first professional sport to try selling tickets, sponsorships, etc., since the ecnomic collapse, and teams are afraid. Everything I've written about Drayton McLane and his payroll numbers should now be viewed differently. MLB officials aren't being specific because the numbers aren't in. But there's almost no doubt that every team is going to be hit. ''We just don't know where the bottom is,'' an MLB official said Thursday. ''You can say teams are worried, and that's an understatement.'' There's a silver lining for MLB. Its TV network will go on the air next month and be in 50 million households. It's the most successful start-up network in television history. MLB TV should bring a new stream of revenues to a sport that has been rolling in cash the last few years. But it comes as clubs are bracing for across-the-board decreases in other areas. OK, what does this stuff mean for the Astros? As far as I know, Drayton still intends a payroll of around $100 million. Ed Wade likely will still have to move payroll, but $100 million isn't a cut from 2008. It's holding the line at a time when revenues could decline. His decision to sign Mike Hampton and allow Randy Wolf to leave may allow him to keep Jose Valverde. It's unlikely he'll keep Ty Wigginton. However, both Valverde and Wigginton are a year away from free agency, so he'll continue to look for a closer. There's also good news if you're running a club. When the Astros went to spring training last year, there were still a few interesting free agents on the market. Kyle Lohse and Shawn Chacon will among those. Unless players are really smart and take the best December offer instead of hoping for a better one in January, there could be a bunch of attractive February free agents. There'll be competition for them, but for much less money than the players hoped to get. Wade is shopping for a backup infielder and more pitching. Don't expect anything dramatic. I've thought that if the Padres come back to the Astros about Jake Peavy, McLane would jump at it. I'm not so sure now. As unemployment rises, as the stock market tanks, every club is faced with a harsher reality. McLane is believed to be worth around $1.3 billion. Or he was believed to be worth $1.3 billion at the beginning of 2008. If he's like millions of other Americans, his portfolio has taken a hit of 40 percent or more. He's not likely to be standing outside a soup kitchen, but those kinds of losses would cause anyone to take a deep breath and reconsider expenses. Fans who demand one big-ticket free-agent signing after another are going to be disappointed. Every team, including the Yankees, will be impacted in some way. Teams that have done the right things in scouting, drafting and player development will be rewarded. Spending at that level makes more sense than ever because teams aren't compelled to throw $100-million at Carlos Lee or trade for Miguel Tejada, whose production and salary are way out of whack. If Ed Wade does nothing else during his time here, he'll have a successful run if he can convince McLane that the best bargains in baseball are still in the draft. The Astros probably can't contend unless some of those young pitchers — Bud Norris, Brad James, etc. — make a contribution in 2009. There's an important lesson in there somewhere.
Hrmmmm... Dick Justice pre-economic-collapse: drivel Dick Justice post-economic-collapse: drivel m'kay. That said, this article wasn't that bad considering the Dick's body of work.
Well he got this right at least: "If Ed Wade does nothing else during his time here, he'll have a successful run if he can convince McLane that the best bargains in baseball are still in the draft." I know that throwing tons of money at inkown commodities is a risky venture. But approaching draft day like it is something to be dreaded and avoided is not the right mentality, and the Astros have to stop doing that.
source [rquoter] LIVE: Latest updates from winter meetings by Ken Rosenthal ... 11:49 a.m. — Astros willing to move Tejada The Astros are "barely" listening to offers for closer Jose Valverde, according to a major-league source, who said "he's about the last guy they want to move." Shortstop Miguel Tejada is another story. The Astros are willing to trade him, and are drawing interest from several teams, including some with openings at both shortstop and third base. The Twins are one team that fits that description. Tejada is guaranteed $13 million next season and the Astros recognize that they would need to assume a portion of that salary in any trade. The Giants and Angels are among the other teams that could have interest. [/rquoter]
Had a so-so year but since his contract is backloaded like most, probably not worth $13 milliion at this time in his career. So if we get rid of him, who's playing shortstop?
