Thinking more about best way to allocate their assets. They probably could not get fair value for Peacock or McHugh, and they probably don’t want to overpay for relievers via trade or free agency. I wonder how receptive McCullers would be to being the closer. We saw what that might look like when he pumped out 2 dozen unhittable curveballs the other night; he has he stuff and mentality to be a dominant closer. If he was willing to give it a shot the pitching staff would probably be fine as-is: Rotation: Verlander Keuchel Morton McHugh Peacock Bullpen: Martes (6th starter or long reliever with elite stuff) Fiers (7th starter or long reliever; could also be replaced my one of the optionable arms like Feliz or Hoyt) Sipp (LOOGY, maybe he rebounds and they can get some value out of his contract) Musgrove Harris Devenski Giles McCullers I doubt they would move McCullers and I doubt he would accept it, but that pitching staff looks pretty awesome and it wouldn’t require overpaying anybody.
I count 3...though one of them also split time in the field though lead team in DH ABs. The DH should be a great hitter...just seems that post steroid era teams haven't learned that it is tough to hit. Teams keep trying to develop guys like Singletons and Reed....low contact, high power guys for DH. These type of guys just have a low probability of success in today's game. The DH is likely going to have to be become more contact oriented if more teams want a good DH instead of a K. I see the full time DH dying and being replaced by backup IF,OF. Gattis being an odd exception.
Dangerous to assume any of those can replace Gattis, who is a proven commodity. I'd love to see what Moran can do and give White consistent ABs, but trusting either is a big risk. Mind you, I agree with the premise that Gattis being traded is a possibility, but it has to be to benefit another part of the roster.
Dude is a well known meth addict that ruined his career and personal life over it. He was in his mid 20’s and already getting kicked out of bars in his hometown. He knows he blew tens of millions of dollars and a long career because he couldn’t put the pipe down.
The Astros are not adding a lot this off season through free agency. Fiers is gone, he isn’t worth his arbitration number. The Beltran money will be gone just in arbitration increases. The Astros took on money with Verlander. I could see the Astros attach a prospect or young player to Sipp to coax a team to take on his salary. Prior to the WS I know the Astros internally viewed LF as a real area they hoped to improve in the short term. I don’t think that has changed. They will look at the veteran free agent market for a 1 year value deal. I can’t see the Astros investing the type of money it would take to sign Davis to close. He is very financially motivated and there are several high profile clubs looking for a closer. Also Davis was having rest issues and arm fatigue by the end of the year. If the Astros get a closer outside of the organization I think it will be by trade. I could see a trade for a really good reliever or signing a solid 7-8th inning guy. Keep in mind a lot of teams want good relievers as well off the free agent market.
Pretty good summary of where Astros stand on Spotrac: http://www.spotrac.com/research/mlb/the-future-financial-health-of-the-houston-astros-648/ Payroll at about 136M if they retain all players in arbitration (Don't know how accurate their arbitration estimates are). Will need to cut, trade, or send down someone to make 25 man roster space for any signings based on their list (Fiers and Feliz seem most likely). Without Fiers you're at ~131M which should leave enough salary space for one major bullpen piece (trade or FA) and potentially one low priced position player if they want to use a vet to replace Beltran instead of Moran, Kemp, etc.
Yeah I think the reliever market is going to be insane, which is why I expect Houston to rework from within rather than sign or trade. McCullers to closer or just having Peacock back in the pen goes just as far or further than spending $50M+ on a guy like Davis or trading multiple top prospects for a guy like Hand. There appears to be a glut of veteran corner bats; guys who would only interest contenders and who themselves would only be interested in playing for a winner, which gives Houston some leverage. Super cheap options like Granderson, Lind, Maybin, Cabrera, or higher tier guys like Duda, Alonso, Santana, Frazier, Dyson, Gonzalez...it should be pretty easy for them to find a really good value to upgrade LF/DH, although since they are trying to sustain rather than get over the hump, I would be fine relying purely on internal options like Fisher and Moran to see if they can establish another long term core piece. Extensions could factor heavily into their decisions. I disagree that Fiers won’t be worth his arb number; he may not be worth it to Houston, but a pitching starved team like the Orioles or Rangers would likely love to have him at that price and could be willing to give up a PTBNL type for him. Adding a good late inning or lefty reliever is the mandate that will be difficult to pull off without overpaying.
Free agents linked to Houston in MLBTR’s Top 50 with their projected contract: Darvish 160/6 Tanaka (already off the market) Davis 60/4 Santana 45/3 Reed 36/4 No thanks to any of those at those prices. If their projections are accurate, Jake McGee, Lucas Duda, Jarrod Dyson, and Neil Walker look like good values.
I just hope that Luhnow and co. identify their FA bullpen guy and go get him; I only want one and the right one. They identified Andrew Miller a few years ago and were willing to pay more than anyone so I have faith. I think the prices in that article for Addison Reed, Mike Minor, Tony Watson, and Jake McGee all seem reasonable. Or you have Britton and Hand as trade options. Regarding potential LF/Utility/DH Options. Maybe Jon Jay or Howie Kendrick? I prefer to test out internal pieces then make a trade at the deadline if it doesn't work out though.
Agree on Fiers. I think whatever overpay they use on a lefty/late inning reliever will be relatively small (~1-2M a year or an extra year) and probably justified based on the greater importance of the bullpen in the playoffs (even factoring in the use of starters as relievers) since they will be planning under the assumption of making the playoffs every year of that contract.
Prediction: Stros will sign one serious reliever. No matter who it is, people will b!tch about him at some point.
What should be the priority for extensions? Mine would be: Altuve Correa Bregman Springer McCullers Keuchel Everybody else Altuve and Correa are Hall of Fame track players who can’t be replaced. Both have face-of-the-franchise personalities and talent and Altuve especially is the heart and soul of the team. They’re worth paying above market value. Bregman, McCullers, and Springer are borderline superstars. With a breakout next year Bregman could be in the tier with Altuve and Correa. However, McCullers and Springer, as good as they are, have a better chance of being adequately replaced than Correa or Altuve. Keuchel is certainly a core player, but I don’t consider him a superstar, and with Houston’s pitching pipeline (Martes, Whitley), Id much rather keep that $25-30M/yr for Correa or Altuve. All of the other players are pretty replaceable so unless they’d be willing to offer Houston a significant discount extensions probably don’t make sense.
It's been a tradition for the past three seasons for one of minor leaguers to join the team. Correa/Alejandro/derek pescador. I wonder who it will be this year. Tucker? Kyle would be older than when correa blessed us with his awesomeness. It's almost forgotten that this was the same season we saw Martes and Paulino after our pitchers started dropping like fruit flies. Excited to see if they will develop or mature cough paulino cough. giles had an excellent regular season and it was his first post season. He will come through.
I really don't think the pen needs a complete overhaul, but if we don't add at least one proven late reliever I'm gonna be disappointed. Devo, Harris, and Musgrove had good years overall out of the pen. See if we can't get to the bottom of their late season struggles. At this point bringing Giles back as the for sure closer doesn't seem wise, but he did have a great season overall. No reason to just give up on him entirely because of the postseason, but if there is a decent trade market for him that is probably an avenue worth looking at. We still have a very talented arm in Feliz who hasn't quite been able to put it together. He could easily become a dominant late game option. Overall it's a really talented pen, but you can't just ignore what happened in the postseason.
Outfield depth. I can see one traded for a pitcher. We have fisher, tucker, maybin, marisnick. Probably forgetting some more who won’t be everyday guys.
