Thats the part that we could end up regretting. I think that the Astros (and maybe they did) should have looked at this situation as not just signing AP...but a way to get Roger back for another year or 1/2 year. I totally agree with the gray area part...and the 20 million dollar difference...he would be a fool to pass that up....especially when he is 34 and will most likely pitch in NY until he is 38...so pitching in 2008 is a given imo unless he has tommy john surgery or something like that.
But is $14MM/yr for 2 years really a big risk? The risk from contracts comes from the length of them 6 - for example, 6 years, $100MM for a very large guy who has to play the outfield. That is a risk. Pettitte, even during a bad season, is likely to be a mid-4 ERA type, and best case high 2's, low 3's. If he gets hurt, he's off the books in 2 years - it's not like it'll restrict the team from making moves in the future. That's what I have a hard time grasping. Two year contracts are simply not high risk - they are ideal in that you have some stability between years (and don't have to repeat this process next December), but aren't locked into a contract from hell for the foreseeable future. If we were willing to take a risk on Carlos Lee, I don't see why you wouldn't take a much smaller risk on Pettitte.
exactly....especially when one of the things we (astros) set out to do was bolster a lineup so that our pitchers got good run support.....as it stands now, we need more offense to cover up a shaky staff if we dont land a #2 guy.
I wonder if it's 2004 redux? Remember the Yankees were afraid to pay for that tired elbow? I wonder if AP gets 8-10 starts before exiting for surgery, and the Astros, much like the Yankees in 2004, see it coming.
fair points. i don't know what the astros know about andy's health. but keep in mind...andy's first half ERA last season was around 5.50. we're not talking about signing an elite pitcher at this point. 2 years at $14 million each does sound like a lot for andy pettitte at this point in his career.
True - perhaps there's something about his health that we don't know about. But he's pitched 200+ innings a year the past 2 years. As for the ERA - that's definitely true. But his ERA the 2nd half was 2.8, so he definitely figured out whatever was going wrong. 3 of the 4 past half-seasons he's been beyond stellar.
I agree with this. Pettite had a great 2nd half last season. And a great year in 05. But he was hurt in 04 and was terrible for half of 06. I don't think he qualifies as a great pitcher. I thought he was overpaid for what he produced in 05. I would have kept him around for what they were asking - after all, it's not my money. But he's a guy with definite motivation issues and potential health concerns, and really the main argument for keeping him was to improve the chances of re-signing Clemens, who has been considerably better overall than Pettite for the 3 seasons those guys have been here.
Actually if you're breaking it down, he was terrible from April to July of 06, and excellent from August through September 06. He was bad in April and May of 05, and excellent from June to September 05. He was brutal in April and July 04 but good in May and August (before the injury). That's 8 very good months and 8 very bad months of production out of Mr. Pettitte. He strikes me as being as Jeckle-and-Hyde as any pitcher out there, generally starting out very slow and picking it up down the stretch. But is that kind of pitcher worth #1 starter money?
Since when is an ERA of under 3.5 or 4 bad?? (at least 3 of the '05 and '06 months you listed) As for '04 - Pettitte hurt his shoulder in April and kept trying to pitch through it, unsuccessfully. You can see this in that he started 2 games in April and 1 in June.
Astros have made an offer for Jeff Suppan The Link Suppan feels unloved By Derrick Goold ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH Tuesday, Dec. 12 2006 A month and a half after winning it all, the Cardinals have found themselves merely finalists for four free-agent starting pitchers whom they targeted, and now they may no longer be in the running for one of their own. The Cardinals were told over the weekend by representatives for Miguel Batista that he would sign elsewhere, which he did with Seattle on Monday. The righthander joins the ranks of the Cardinals' other near misses this winter, such as Jason Schmidt, Vicente Padilla and Randy Wolf. There is nothing near about their pursuit of Jeff Suppan. With the Cardinals courting other pitchers, even openly discussing creative internal candidates, and the price of pitching soaring, the National League Championship Series MVP can read "the writing on the wall," his agent said Monday. "The Cardinals appear to be exhausting every other resource imaginable for starting pitching to not jump into the fray for Soup," said the righthander's agent, Scott Leventhal. "The writing is on the wall. Based on that, we don't consider St. Louis one of the markets we're looking at. We've set our sights elsewhere. We haven't counted them out entirely. We have not closed the door. But realistically speaking, it seems they've set their sights on every other thing." Another pool of possibilities could hit the market today — thin as it may be. Today is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players currently on their roster without a deal for 2007. After signing reliever Russ Springer this past weekend, the Cardinals' 40-man roster is full, meaning the club is likely to create space on it by signing a player to a minor-league offer or leaving a player without an offer today. The Cardinals have nearly finalized a few renewals, including one to be announced today with infielder Aaron Miles. The Cardinals also are negotiating a deal to keep So Taguchi. General manager Walt Jocketty said he would like to have Rick Ankiel, retired pitcher-turned-outfielder, re-sign and come to spring training, healthy enough to take another shot at making the majors as a hitter. The Cardinals have worked on a new contract for pitcher Jorge Sosa, who was acquired at the trade deadline but did not pitch well enough to be active in the postseason. If a deal cannot be struck, the Cardinals will avoid arbitration by letting Sosa become a free agent. Some starting pitchers could shake loose at today's deadline. Baltimore's Rodrigo Lopez has been reported as a possibility, and the Mariners — especially after signing Batista — are not expected to offer a contract to Joel Pineiro. Recent reports in Colorado have the Rockies working to keep Josh Fogg in their rotation. "I just think the pitching market with the way that it is, I don't know if clubs will 'non-tender' any decent pitching," Jocketty said Monday. "We're looking at it. I don't hold a lot of hope for it." To fill the final two spots in the rotation, Jocketty has three remaining avenues: free agency, which has not been recently friendly; trades, which have grown thornier because of the free-agent market; and internally, which has given rise to the notion of Braden Looper as a starter. Jocketty said with Batista's decision he has one offer currently out to a free agent. It's the contract offered to Mark Mulder. The lefty is scheduled to visit the Texas Rangers today. On Saturday, Mulder is getting married, and teams have been told he would like to make a decision before his nuptials. The Cardinals have discussed a one-year deal with an option for Mulder, who is expected to be ready to pitch in June after having shoulder surgery in September. "I can tell you this, despite what some people have thought, we've made some very substantial offers and we still have some things we want to do," Jocketty said. "We've been very close on (several) of the guys. There are players shooting high with this market (who) have become too expensive for us." Suppan, who early this offseason got a three-year offer in the $18 million to $20 million range from the Cardinals, appears to be one. Twice a 16-game winner with the Cardinals, Suppan has drawn determined interest from Kansas City and Pittsburgh and, most recently, an offer from Houston in the wake of losing Andy Pettitte. Leventhal said he plans to wait for lefty Barry Zito to sign and see if the teams that miss him shift interest to Suppan. For example, the Mets called about Suppan on Monday, Leventhal said. In offseasons past, the Cardinals have had dealings that echo of the sentiment expressed by Suppan's agent Monday. Woody Williams, Matt Morris and Mark Grudzielanek spoke of similar experiences before signing for richer offers elsewhere. Gauging the market, manager Tony La Russa said he's pleased the Cardinals have not leapt into a financial trap. "I'm pleased because I think we've used good judgment," La Russa said Sunday. "We've chased and chased some free agents to a point we were comfortable, but we haven't gotten carried away and made a deal we would later regret."
Batters hit .301 against Pettitte in July 06, so his 3.77 ERA that month is a little deceiving. He gave up at least 5 hits (and up to 11) in his 5 starts. In May 05 he was 2-3 with a 3.98, do you consider that good? In April 05 he was 1-2, 3.45 and batters hit .287 against him. He beat the Cards and Brewers but lost to the Pirates and the Reds. I dunno, I guess you can count that month in the adequate column, but certainly not "spectacular". It doesn't diminish my point that he had alot of down months with the Stros to go with the incredible ones.
What pitcher doesn't have down months? Oswalt this season had two months similar to Pettitte's '05 "bad" months. In May and June, he has ERA's in the 3.5-4.0 range, went 2-3 in 10 starts, and had BAA's above 0.280 both months. You'd be hardpressed to find many pitchers in the league that don't have mixed bad months in there. At the end of the day, Pettitte had a top 5 ERA in 2005 and showed that same form the last half of 2006. 2 years is a low-risk signing and doesn't cost you any players. As a standalone decision, I agree that he's overpriced. But if you're willing to pay Carlos Lee for 6 years and trade all prospects for an $11MM Jon Garland, then Pettitte at $28MM/2 years is a great deal.
I don't. If anyone thinks Suppan is a number 2 caliber starter, they are delusional. The guy is mediocre. Not to mention the fact that we would probably end up greatly overpaying for his mediocre ass.
Two questions for you: 1) Who do you like? Seriously, all I ever read from you is who's mediocre, who sucks, who's overrated and who's overpaid. Who do you like? 2) Is there any take of yours which, when disagreed with by others, wouldn't make the disagreeing party "blind" or "delusional"? And the bonus question: how did you corner the market on exclusive sports intelligence? Thanks.
