Another Tejada saga? http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/12/02/astros.tejada/index.html Seems unlikely to me, our whole off-season has been built on this speed and defense concept so I don't think we will be giving up bourn, everett, and probably a guy like patton for someone on the decline (though he is still a great player).
yeah he's definitely on the decline.. I'd take him off their hands, but no way I'd give up someone like Bourne for him.. much less another prospect. We're not a hitter away from a championship run at all.
I'd guess this rumor originated far, far away from Texas & Crawford. There's no reason to do Lidge for Bourn (who the Astros have wanted for a couple of years) if they're just going to flip him. And like you said, it goes against everything they've said since the moment Smith took over as GM. More ridiculous rumors than this about the Tejada & the Astros (Oswalt?!?) have come out of Baltimore in seasons past. I wouldn't believe much of it.
All of this being said, if I could get Tejada for Everett and Scott/Burke, I do it in a heartbeat. This would solidify our lineup.
no doubt. But why the hell would they do that? Even the O's aren't THAT dumb. I think they'd take some mid-level or one upper-tier prospect over that..
By the way, for all who have been talking nonstop about getting Peavy next offseason.. and saying that certain moves are "ok if we're going for Peavy next year".. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138883
This is interesting: "Yanks give Twins Monday deadline on Santana...New York has offered Hughes, Cabrera and prospect" "The Yankees have proposed swapping pitcher Phil Hughes, center fielder Melky Cabrera and a midlevel prospect for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who can become a free agent after next season." http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22057440/ Are you kidding me? That's the worst offer in the history of the universe. If that's the sort of proposal that gets the Twins listening, Santana could be an Astro tomorrow. MELKY CABRERA?!
I think the purpose of the deal is Phil Hughes. Cabrera gives them a replacement for Hunter. It's a pretty good deal for both parties. The Astros don't have a Phil Hughes type prospect to give up.
It's a terrible deal. You don't trade clearly the best pitcher in the game when he's only 28 for one good prospect. Cabrera gives them a replacement for Hunter... in the sense that he's a warm body. The Twins could sign a CF via free agency for under $4 million that could give them comparable production to Cabrera. Or bring someone up from their minor league system.
The Twins may want more, but the market for what's possibly/likely a 1-year rental might not be that high.
Glad you posted that. The most absurd posts every season are those that want to save for future free agency classes with all these great pitchers, not realizing that most are signed to extensions before they'll ever get there. If you want a great pitcher, it's going to come by trade or from within these days... very hard to acquire them through FA.
Hughes is a pretty high level prospect. Cabrera is 23 and had a pretty good season manning CF for the Yankees. I don't think it's that bad. There are now reports that the Sox have decided to add Ellsbury to the package as the Twins wanted, but they're pulling Lester & Crisp. I'm betting on the Red Sox getting him, if anyone.
The team trading for him in not guaranteed to sign him, not by a long shot. They get the advantage of being able to talk extension, which is big, but they can't do that before the trade, and he may be willing to play out the year & hit the market.
2008 ZIP projections http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_houston_astros/ 2008 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros The Astros are essentially the NL version of the Orioles. Both teams aren't rich enough to be free-wheelin', aren't poor enough that they feel the need to be creative, and mistake taking the middle road as not having a plan at all, leaving them just sort of meandering around. Sure, they managed to get to the World Series in 2005, but even that team only won 89 games despite having the 3 of the NL's top 6 starters in ERA+ that year and neither of that 1-2 punch, Clemens and Pettitte, aren't Astros now and won't be in 2008. Hiring Ed Wade doesn't exactly suggest a solid plan will be put in place at any time in the near future. Like the Orioles, the Astros have a supportive fanbase that will reward them if they put together a solid team in the long-term. I did the spotlight for Jason Jennings. I know he's not technically an Astro anymore, but in an amazingly weak free agent market for pitching, he's one of the more interesting hurlers out there and might be one of the few bargains after a 2007 season he'd like to forget (like Bartolo Colon). Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Lance Berkman# 1b 32 .277 .396 .520 149 531 90 147 28 1 33 105 101 109 4 3 Carlos Lee lf 32 .286 .345 .503 156 612 92 175 37 0 32 113 54 87 10 3 Hunter Pence rf 25 .292 .343 .510 155 612 77 179 39 8 26 94 47 123 12 5 AVERAGE 1B ------------- 1b ---- .279 .356 .480 ------------------------------------------ Luke Scott* rf 30 .258 .348 .492 138 431 58 111 28 5 21 72 56 105 3 2 AVERAGE LF ------------- lf ---- .277 .348 .461 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE RF ------------- rf ---- .277 .345 .463 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE 3B ------------- 3b ---- .274 .342 .449 ------------------------------------------ Ty Wigginton 3b 30 .273 .335 .467 129 458 61 125 26 0 21 69 43 98 3 3 Mike Lamb* 1b 32 .273 .344 .433 113 300 44 82 14 2 10 44 32 54 1 1 AVERAGE CF ------------- cf ---- .272 .335 .425 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE 2B ------------- 2b ---- .276 .336 .414 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE SS ------------- ss ---- .274 .328 .407 ------------------------------------------ AVERAGE C --------------- c ---- .260 .320 .403 ------------------------------------------ Mark Loretta 2b 36 .274 .344 .350 123 468 57 128 22 1 4 48 44 48 2 1 Chris Burke 2b 28 .246 .320 .367 129 398 59 98 22 1 8 41 34 75 16 5 Mark Saccomanno 1b 28 .242 .284 .420 113 405 28 98 17 2 17 62 23 110 1 2 Justin Towles c 24 .250 .322 .379 114 388 42 97 18 1 10 48 23 73 9 11 Hector Gimenez# c 25 .256 .305 .359 80 281 25 72 8 0 7 29 19 46 1 1 Craig Biggio 2b 42 .239 .293 .384 112 422 57 101 26 1 11 54 24 84 3 1 Cody Ransom 3b 32 .219 .291 .389 125 388 38 85 18 0 16 54 36 117 7 3 Tim Raines Jr.# lf 28 .258 .300 .375 122 392 46 101 18 2 8 39 21 91 20 8 Michael Costanzo* 3b 24 .225 .300 .366 134 475 39 107 23 1 14 53 45 154 0 1 Mike Rodriguez* cf 27 .247 .312 .348 105 348 43 86 15 4 4 32 30 55 11 5 Reggie Abercrombie cf 27 .236 .279 .401 115 364 52 86 15 3 13 42 15 113 21 6 Brooks Conrad# 2b 28 .211 .288 .378 135 503 63 106 30 3 16 63 51 145 10 3 Geoff Blum# 3b 35 .241 .305 .341 92 249 26 60 14 1 3 24 22 39 0 1 Michael Bourn* lf 25 .250 .314 .320 133 300 52 75 7 4 2 22 27 63 22 4 Humberto Quintero c 28 .254 .288 .358 98 307 27 78 17 0 5 30 11 53 1 1 Adam Everett ss 31 .240 .284 .332 107 371 38 89 18 2 4 36 19 65 9 3 Drew Sutton# 3b 25 .221 .291 .317 146 539 56 119 23 1 9 47 50 123 16 7 Orlando Palmeiro* lf 39 .244 .315 .293 65 82 9 20 4 0 0 10 7 10 0 1 Yordany Ramirez cf 23 .247 .274 .349 109 392 46 97 18 2 6 40 12 83 19 9 Ray Sadler cf 27 .206 .265 .365 137 471 39 97 20 2 17 58 34 141 9 7 Barry Wesson rf 31 .230 .281 .316 110 304 24 70 12 1 4 24 20 77 6 3 Eli Iorg rf 25 .210 .249 .338 91 328 33 69 17 2 7 32 14 94 16 4 Brad Ausmus c 39 .219 .296 .254 104 315 26 69 11 0 0 28 30 60 3 1 * - Bats Left # = Switch-Hitter Player Spotlight - Hunter Pence Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS Optimistic (15%) .318 .375 .569 161 642 92 204 46 11 31 119 58 115 17 5 Mean .292 .343 .510 155 612 77 179 39 8 26 94 47 123 12 5 Pessimistic (15%) .273 .322 .441 99 392 42 107 22 4 12 54 28 87 6 4 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Magglio Ordonez, Pete Fox Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Roy Oswalt 30 3.48 15 10 34 33 225.0 229 87 19 52 169 Geoff Geary 31 3.70 5 3 70 0 90.0 91 37 8 24 57 Chad Qualls 29 3.86 6 5 79 0 84.0 82 36 10 26 67 Trever Miller* 35 3.94 1 1 70 0 48.0 44 21 5 20 47 Oscar Villarreal 26 4.17 3 2 58 0 82.0 83 38 10 26 58 LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER ------ 4.19 ----------------------------------------------- Samuel Gervacio 23 4.30 5 6 56 0 88.0 86 42 11 34 77 Jason Jennings 28 4.56 7 8 25 25 140.0 145 71 16 58 99 Dave Borkowski 31 4.56 3 4 57 0 75.0 76 38 8 31 58 LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER ------- 4.60 ----------------------------------------------- Fernando Nieve 25 4.70 4 4 23 13 92.0 85 48 14 33 70 Wandy Rodriguez* 26 4.72 10 14 34 32 185.0 192 97 23 68 140 Philip Barzilla* 29 4.75 6 8 28 16 125.0 137 66 11 55 63 Felipe Paulino 24 4.78 5 7 23 16 96.0 98 51 12 42 75 Brian Moehler 36 4.87 2 4 51 0 61.0 70 33 8 19 33 Chad Reineke 26 4.90 6 8 36 17 123.0 126 67 15 63 92 Paul Estrada 25 4.98 5 8 59 0 94.0 93 52 14 46 84 Chris Sampson 30 4.99 6 10 31 19 139.0 163 77 23 28 63 Mark McLemore* 27 5.00 3 4 35 11 81.0 82 45 11 47 64 Brandon Backe 30 5.02 5 7 16 16 86.0 91 48 13 37 55 Travis Driskill 36 5.13 4 6 46 1 72.0 78 41 14 23 54 Dennis Sarfate 27 5.19 6 9 44 14 118.0 122 68 14 68 92 Woody Williams 41 5.23 7 12 28 27 160.0 184 93 28 48 87 Brad James 24 5.31 5 9 23 22 122.0 138 72 16 53 55 Troy Patton* 22 5.41 7 14 28 27 163.0 182 98 27 62 99 Juan Gutierrez 24 5.44 6 10 29 26 154.0 168 93 26 61 101 Matt Albers 25 5.53 7 13 34 27 171.0 190 105 26 77 112 Chan Ho Park 35 5.63 6 13 26 25 144.0 161 90 25 58 106 Chance Douglass 24 5.75 5 11 29 24 158.0 180 101 28 68 86 Jared Gothreaux 28 5.75 5 9 28 19 122.0 144 78 22 38 62 Stephen Randolph* 34 6.00 3 7 54 0 63.0 59 42 12 54 70 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Jason Jennings ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K Optimistic (15%) 3.70 9 7 25 25 158 149 65 14 55 123 Mean 4.56 7 8 23 23 140 145 71 16 58 99 Pessimistic (15%) 5.42 4 8 19 19 113 127 68 16 53 72 Top Near-Age Comps: Jason Johnson, Charlie Hudson Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Since when is hitting .273 with a .327 OBP and .391 SLG a pretty good season? That's mediocre at best.
