Brown’s comments really seem to be tamping down expectations. Taking him as his word, 24 spots are taken: C (1): Diaz IF (6): Abreu, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, Kessinger, Singleton/prospect OF (5): Tucker, Dubon, McCormick, Alvarez, Meyers SP (8): Verlander, Valdez, Brown, Javier, Urquidy, France, McCullers/prospect, Garcia/prospect RP (4): Pressly, Abreu, Montero, Graveman It also sounds like he is very open to a OF prospect bumping Singleton or Kessinger off the roster and relegating Dubon back to the bench. Similarly it sounds like he is fine using internal options to bridge the gap in SP depth while Garcia and McCullers are out. It also sounds like they are going to be opportunistic in monitoring the deep free agent starting pitching market for a SP they think can be a playoff starter. I suspect that if they go over the tax, it will be because they see a playoff caliber SP available that they can get at a bargain; Yariel Rodriguez might be that guy. Otherwise, it looks like a true backup C (Caratini looks like the best fit) and a RP is all we will see. One thought I had today is that the Astros could not guarantee that Neris would opt out, so I think it is very safe to say that Houston has at least $8M to spend in free agency. All in all I am very comfortable with their plan. It just remains to be see which players they actually end up getting.
From this plan: 1) Meyers or a prospect needs to step up and be productive vs RHP and start 100 or so games in the OF. It could be a guy like Barber or Loperfido, maybe even Melton. Clearly Brown wants to move prospects up faster - multiple levels each year which would mean any ( U S.) player could be in Houston his 2nd year if he performs. 2) This team could open the season with 25 guys currently in the organization. Backup catcher would be the 26th guy. I like Higashioka. He is buried on the Yankees bench and in his last year of arbitration. 3) Clearly the organization is not sold on 4 playoff calibur starters among the current stable of options. My guess is that if they get a guy, it's someone like Giolitto, Severino, Maeda, etc who has top 3 rotation stuff and has done it before but coming off injury or poor performance and can be had on a high reward questionable risk "prove it" contract. I say questionable risk because several teams need multiple SP so there is high demand just like there is high supply. It may take a creative contract or extra guarantee to outbid someone.
On #4... we should have 4 playoff caliber rosters by the playoffs but no faith in having 4 serviceable starters the first 4 months...
Last time maldonado was a FA he fired his agent, had to take a **** deal as a gift to his new agent, and then promptly got traded back to houston at the deadline for a bag of ****. I do not believe 4-5 teams have the slightest bit of interest in him but I sure as shot hope they do so that ushers in him GTFO of the organization. I don’t believe for a moment that will happen, but we will see I guess.
We gave up Tony Kemp to get him back. Kemp is still a serviceable player that we should sign this off season for depth...
Our big moves are going to be bringing madly back, shopping the bargain bin, and hiring a manager. Meanwhile the rangers are going to have another shopping spree
The Giants are reportedly looking to shore up the team defense, improve CF, and get a veteran backup/insurance shortstop in case top prospect Marco Luciano doesn't start his big league career with a bang. To me this looks like a perfect opportunity to trade Dubon in a deal for Yastrzemski. In fact, Dubon looks to have more value so the Giants should throw in a prospect. 2023 Dubon had 1.9 fWAR and 2.7 bWAR Yaz had 1.8 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR to make this as unbiased as possible, let's use Dubon's 1.9 fWAR and Yaz's 2.4 bWAR for future projection. Based on a study of arbitration salaries by Ben Clemens of Fangraphs: Dubon should get: 24: $1.86/WAR = $3.5M 25: $2.66/WAR = $5.1M 26: $4.19/WAR = $8.0M Yaz: 24: $2.66/WAR = $6.4M 25: $4.19/WAR = $10.1M Dubon: 5.7WAR is worth $45.6M and he is "scheduled" to make $16.6M giving him $29.0M in surplus value. Yaz: 4.8WAR is worth $38.4M and he is "scheduled" to make $16.5M giving him $21.9M in surplus value. That makes a 1 for 1 trade a +$7.1M in surplus value for the Giants. (in actuality it will likely be better for them because 2024 arbitration estimates Dubon $3.0M and Yaz $7.4M per Cots) I still make this deal if I'm Brown because Yaz fills a need making the team better and Dubon, as a utility player, can be replaced with minimal negative impact. This has gotten too long already so I'm not going to look at who but the Giants should add a prospect w/ $7-8M in surplus value to even the trade.
