Hypothetical/realistic 2024 opening day roster: 2B Altuve (extension: $140M/6 yrs running 2024-2028) 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Abreu RF Tucker LF McCormick C Diaz CF Dubon SS Pena Bench: Kessinger, Victor Caratini ($12M/2yr), Singleton, Meyers Rotation: Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Urquidy Bullpen: France, Martinez, Bielak, Montero, Graveman, Matt Moore ($13M/2yr), Abreu, Pressly IL: McCullers, Garcia Optioned: Whitley, Dubin, Tamarez*, Blanco, Gage, Sousa, Mushinski, Salazar, Whitcomb*, Julks, Barber*, Corona* I will be underwhelmed with that roster but it’s about what I expect. Astros have a weak farm and not much money to spend. They’ll have to be very creative/shrewd to make impact moves.
Especially when the bottom of the lineup is struggling so much already. Last postseason we got away with Maldy starting most of their games because guys like Chas and Pena played out of their minds, Bregman was huge, and Yuli flipped the switch after a terrible regular season. Even Altuve's disappearing act and the lack of a DH didn't matter with all those guys stepping up. We didn't have that luxury this season and we knew that well before the playoffs started(which is why the Astros barely even made it into the postseason). Well, everyone but Dusty knew that.
$8M is still only 3.4% of the CBT. Graveman has high leverage "stuff" and has been a successful high leverage arm in the past. Pitchers are risky. Relievers= 75% performance risk/25% injury risk, starters=75% injury risk/25% performance risk. At least relievers are cheaper and generally healthier Once a pitcher who has MLB quality stuff is over 6 years of service time, that's just what they get paid. I agree with Brown that it's a worthwhile gamble. The best way to avoid this is to develop good bullpen arms every year to fill in as they hit 5-6 years and FA.
Other thoughts entering the offseason: I don’t view Pena as more valuable than Dubon, especially when you consider versatility. The free agent SS market is totally barren, so if a team out there wants to offer either a star MLB player (OF or SP) or several elite prospects for Pena, Houston should do that. Several teams that have a glaring need for SP also don’t have much money to spend. So even though the free agent SP market is deep, Houston’s SP depth (Brown, Javier, France, Urquidy) could have a lot of trade value. I am feeling really good about Kessinger as the backup IF. His defense has consistently looked very good and he hasn’t looked lost at the plate. He also seems to have a good attitude about his role and fit the culture. This will be unpopular, but I want to see Singleton on the roster and get the at bats when Abreu or Alvarez needs a rest or when a pinch hit scenario comes up; he has an extremely high ceiling despite his age and he’s put together good at bats. It also helps that he doesn’t cost much and the other guys seem to like him.
Playoff Performances by Position Players (OPS) The Good Yordan Alvarez...1.487 Jose Abreu............945 Alex Bregman ......932 Jose Altuve...........906 The Meh Chas McCormick ..748 Mauricio Dubon.....628 (.320 avg) The Ugly Pretty much everyone else, most notably Michael Brantley...603 Kyle Tucker...........517 Jeremy Pena........463 https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/hou/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc The idea that we only had a black hole In Maldy is just wrong. We had 3 or 4 on a nightly basis.
Wasn't their a rumor that he left because he didn't get along with Dusty? He "retired" and then surprisingly signed with D-Backs 2 weeks later.
He is a grandfather with family in Arizona... unless we move home games to... oh I am all for it now.
In their four losses, Maldonado had two what I would deem "crucial" at-bats: - game 1, bottom of the 4th inning; bases loaded, 2 outs. He struck out. - game 7, bottom of the 2nd inning; runner on 2B; 2 outs. He struck out. You can argue he's a vacuum, etc., and you're right, of course - but he was every bit as awful last postseason and never got in the way of them going 11-2. The bottom line of this series is that, for whatever reason, when the team needed a hit *at home*, the guys we actually expect to hit failed. Repeatedly. GAME 1: - Yordan struck out with runners on 1B & 2B; 2 outs - Pena struck out with bases loaded; 1 out GAME 2: - Bases loaded; no outs - Diaz & Altuve struck out; Bregman grounded out - McCormick strikes out with runner on 2B; 2 outs GAME 6: - Abreu lines out with runners on 1B and 2B; 1 out - Tucker strikes out with runners on 1B and 2B; 2 outs - Abreu grounds out with runners on 1B and 2B; 2 outs - Rangers hit Maldonado, and Altuve, Brantley and Bregman go 1-2-3 - Tucker hits into FC with runners on 1B and 2B; 0 outs - Brantley hits into a DP after Altuve single; 1 out - Dubon lines out with bases loaded; 1 out - Singleton strike out with bases loaded; 2 outs GAME 7: - Brantley hits into a DP with runners on 1B and 3B; 1 out - Pena strikes out with runner on 2B; 1 out - Abreu grounds out with runner on 3B; 1 out - Brantley grounds out with runner on 3B; 2 outs To watch *this* series and think the #9 hitter was the swing is just silly. Good hitters had AMPLE opportunities to break this series open and couldn't.
With Diaz replacing Maldonado, we can live with Pena's hitting at SS. CF is a concern to me, but hoping McCormick can put it together for a full season with Dubon being that ultra-utility guy. I think the lineup is set. I've heard we are going to go after Josh Hader in the offseason. A back 3 of Hader, Abreu, and Pressly would lock down the late innings. I'd like LMJ to make the move to the bullpen when he comes back, but probably is unlikely. Starting pitching is going to be what makes or breaks our season. If Verlander stays in form, and Framber gets a new psychologist, and we can get Javier back to where he needs to be consistently, this is a 100 win team. If the starters fall flat (Verlander shows his age, Framber stays a mental basket case, and Javier/France/Urquidy/etc struggle as they did some of this season), then next year could be a real struggle. It all comes down to our starting pitching IMO. I think there was a lot of Dusty induced tension in the locker room this year, and that can't be good for pitchers going out onto the mound.
I forgot to mention this in my novel. If the run producer that is added can play 1B it will be a huge plus. Abreu needs 1-2 days off per week. I wish Yordan could play 1B. Bellinger will be expensive and the history is a (minor) concern, but on the field he is perfect to fill the hole. I also like: Nolan Jones (RF, LF, 1B), Riley Greene (CF), Lars Nootbar (CF, LF), Jack Suwinski (CF), Mackey Moniak (CF), and several young veterans from SF and TB but have no idea what price would be or if they would be available.
I would argue Maldy wasn't quite as awful last postseason. He had a huge double in Game 1 of the ALCS that immediately tied the game after Bader's HR. And he got hit by the pitch that started the Game 6 rally that won them the World Series. And the biggest reason for their 11-2 run in the 2022 playoffs was the pitching. They scored 8, 4, 1, 4, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 0, 5, 3, and 4 runs in their games last postseason. Not exactly a dominant offense. And BTW, those two 5 run performances were with Vazquez starting at catcher. With all their struggles at home this season and the pitching not being as great, they needed to maximize their at bats and score as many runs as possible. No one should excuse so many other players in the lineup hitting poorly. But this season, they couldn't get away with the luxury of an automatic out like Maldy batting 9th. Dusty should've swallowed his pride and admitted that.
Even just a decent hitter in the 9 spot would make a big difference. I'm sure the other hitters were pressing thinking they had to get the job done because of the weak bottom of the order.
Podcast from last night talking about the end of season and some quick thoughts about off-season. https://spotify.link/ynwugYc49Db
Pena shouldn't be handed the starting SS next season. Maybe Dubon was a one-year wonder but give Dubon an equal chance to take over as starter during spring training. Pena would still get plenty of starts since Dubon is still an asset as a utility player. If they get another OF, that will limit Dubon's starts in the outfield.
I don't necessarily agree with Pena not being the starter, but I would definitely start Chas more than him with Dubon staying on the infield where he belongs. Pena starts 75-80% Dubon starts 20-25%
I think it is worth noting that the final 4 teams in the playoffs all had a catcher on their roster who was a very good hitter (JT Realmuto, Gabriel Moreno, Jonah Heim, Yainer Diaz). Bodes well for Houston next season.
This was not a WS-winning team. We all knew it. Pitching and Hitting were too inconsistent. They found a way to make it to the ALCS. A good offseason with the right choices can get them back to another ALCS next season.
