The trade value chart shows Trout at -69.7M, McCormick at -18.2M, so a trade requires the Angels so send $51.5M with him. This makes his cap hit fall to about $30M per year for 7 years and we take $18.2M off the books for McCormick which would make the cap net cost fall to ~$27.5M / yr. It's another JV type deal IF the Angels go into full rebuild mode. I doubt they will start there, but might get there by the all star break. Timing would work out if Meyers and McCormick fail to show a positive WAA. In truth, they might be included in the package to open up room for OF prospects. Though I would keep one if they are still maintaining premium LH hitting as a platoon bench OF. Subsitute McCullers for McCormick.
Anything is possible and something seems to make the improbable happen every year like the return of a subsidized JV last year or the Greinke Trade. I can't keep the years straight. 2017 JV 2018 Cole 2019? Greinke 2020 Young Pitchers performing like vets 2022 Pena Delivers 2023 JV subsidized return I'm sure something unexpected happened in 2021.
I miss the old Cots where I could get details on contracts. For instance, I have heard the 2025 JV Contract called a Mutual option which actually guarantees nothing since either party can opt out. The 140 IP making it a player option would indicate some obligation on the club is triggered. Scenarios where the contract language would help. Can the club trigger the option if JV doesn't hit the 140IP mark? Is the $17.5M subsidy by the Mets dependent on the club or the player trigger? I see Cot's is being updated again, so their terminology is a Conditional Player Option. This would give JV the option in 2025 to stay but does not obligate him to do so. In this respect, it is like his second year $25M option for 2023 he signed in 2022 and declined. With the Mets covering half if he accepts the 2025 option, it would be mutually beneficial to work out an extension for 2026(+) rather than decline the 2025 option. Astro for Life!
What? How could Chas be a negative value player (and 18M to boot)? He won’t even make 18M over the next 3 years, and he should, at a minimum, be a 6 or 9 WAR guy. Chas has like 50M in surplus value over the life of his contract. What am I not understanding about your post?
I meant McCullers. Sorry about that. Chas would only appear as an add on and the $ would be adjusted accordingly. If you pick up Trout, one of McCormick or Meyers would likely be sent back to balance the OF of both rosters.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/dodgers-discussing-contract-with-james-paxton.html That seems like a potential steal for the Dodgers with extremely low risk. $7M/1yr of risk with max payout of only $13M for a guy who is a 3-4 win playoff-caliber starting pitcher when healthy.
The problem is that Trout's value means nothing. Nothing happens unless he goes to ownership and demands one and that isn't happening. (He stated earlier that he would consider one then changed his mind) Then, if that happened, they would only trade him if he were considered a positive and not a negative (OK that's probably going too far, but they would require at least twice what he is worth coming back) And finally they would never trade him within the division and face that kind of fan backlash. If he were traded, I'm certain it would be to the NL and most likely Philly. I would expect IF he were traded to Houston then McCullers would be a good piece to help balance the money but they would want probably 2 legitimate young MLBers and 2 top prospects on top of that to get their attention. Keep in mind you must convince them to trade him, then convince them to trade him within the division, then outbid everyone else. Lance, Meyers, Brown, Melton, and Arrighetti would probably get it done anything less and they deal with the Phillies
Higher OBP% and batting average than Meyers - and he has shown the ability to focus and make adjustments when they need him to put the ball in play.
I really like the idea of Singleton, Caratini, Kessinger, and Dubon on the bench during the playoffs. All 4 of those guys put together good pinch hit at bats and never seem rattled. Would not surprise me at all if one of those dudes ends up being a Freese-style hero.
A lot of these types of deals (I cannot say this particular one) are based as much on promised playing time and access to top notch coaching and training - as money. Most likely Paxton could get similar or more money elsewhere - but the chance to pitch in Dodgers Stadium, with the Dodgers training staff and coaches, to live in Los Angeles and to win all figured into this decision... the Dodgers have had success with these types of signings in the past, and Paxton is likely counting on a greater chance of success with the Dodgers and more choices financially and professionally after this season if he does well. I have heard some in baseball in the past claim that there types of players would sign with smaller market teams, because smaller market teams can make large single season offers for players and avoid long term commitments - but that seldom is how it plays out. Look at the Dodgers.... They spend more than any other team in the league on coaching and player development. They do that because they financially can. Last year the Dodgers went 100-62. They again failed in the playoffs so they go out and get Glasnow/Yamamoto/Paxton to address their rotation issues. They add Ohtani and Hernandez to address their hitting issues. No other team could do that since George Steinbrenner died. Yeah - the Dodgers ownership is willing to spend the money, but the disparity in resources in insane, and it isn't limited to just having the most money - someone like Paxton doesn't sign with the Dodgers without less obvious benefits of the Dodgers being wealthy, like the player development, coaching and front office. It is why organizations like the Astros, Rays and Braves are more impressive to me.
I think if Kessinger is used properly, he can be a very good situational hitter - like Bill Spiers was a long time ago. The ability to work the count, to avoid strikeouts and put the ball in play is huge for the playoffs.
Thanks. It's nice to know that about him. I haven't seen him play or researched him much yet. I just saw the 0 for 3 w/ 3 Ks w/ runners on 1st and 3rd last year (but none of them had exactly 1 out) It looks like he is very good for his career 1.121 OPS w/ 7 RBI in 11 PA. He's a good guy to have.
I think Kessinger is going to be quite good if he can be used as a true back up and not expected to have the pressure of starting.
@Nook do you believe the Astros will be part of another splash signing here before the season starts? I am sure you've probably answered this already, but this thread is long .
With all the moves the Dodgers made this off-season, if I were a betting man, I'd still take the Braves or Phillies to come out of the National league. Just my opinion.
I just love the balance: Dubon: RHH who puts the ball in play Singleton: LHH who is a threat to walk and hit a HR Caratini: switch hitter with a balanced approach Kessinger: RHH with a balanced approach If Kessinger had 70 grade speed to represent a pinch running threat, it would be perfect.
Splash signing? Probably not. What I have heard is that if something "really good" comes along, the Astros owner will not rule it out and will try to make it work. So that would require something odd happening with a really good player, and the Astros out bidding everyone else - not likely but possible. There are some guys out there that I know the Astros like - but I suspect they can get more elsewhere.
Ok. That makes a ton more sense. Chas and LMJ and Montero and Urquidy for trout plus 50M. I’d do that trade both ways.
